Kentucky Derby 2012: Studs Guaranteed to Be Duds at Churchill Downs

The 2012 Kentucky Derby field is stacked with one of the deepest fields that we have seen in years. There are obvious favorites—looking at you, Bodemeister—but you can easily make a case for six or seven horses to take the crown. 

However, some of the would-be favorites do have some red flags that need to be addressed before we can say they are worthy of such high praise. 

Looking at the stats and information for some of the top horses, you can see which ones really need to elevate their performance on Saturday.

Here are the horses that will stumble out of the gate and finish lower than expected. 

Union Rags (9-2)

There are two schools of thought out there on Union Rags as we move closer to the start of the Derby. 

On the one hand, Union Rags is the best physical specimen in this race with a good track record of success. He has won four races in the last year and finished second in the other. He is fast out of the gate with the stamina to keep moving down the stretch. 

On the flip side, Rags is coming off a poor showing last month at the Florida Derby. His jockey didn't know how to control him and it showed. That said, he still finished third despite all the problems. 

That finish can be forgiven with one great run at the Derby, but given the competition, it is not going to happen for him. 

Gemologist (6-1)

On paper, there is no reason to think Gemologist won't walk away with at least a top-three finish on Saturday evening. 

In addition to being the No. 3 favorite to win the race, Gemologist has not lost a race that he has entered. He is a perfect 5-for-5 with all his victories coming in the last seven months. 

The only downside is that he has yet to really be tested in a race. His best win was at the Wood Memorial last month, but the field was hardly star-studded. 

Until we see Gemologist going up against an elite field, it is impossible to know how his jockey is going to react when the pressure is at its peak.

Creative Cause (12-1)

Unlike the first two horses on this list, Creative Cause has had a lot of mixed results in his runs. There have been plenty of brilliant showing, including four victories and nothing lower than third. But with a lot of second- and third-place finishes on his resume, it does make you wonder if he can keep up with the best three-year-old horses in the sport. 

Getting off to a fast start is going to be critical to Creative Cause's success in this race. He does not have great burst at the end of a run, so he is going to have a hard time making up space after things really get going. 

Plus, I just don't think that Creative Cause is strong enough to match the best horses in this race stride for stride in a 1 1/4-mile race. 

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