Kentucky Derby 2012 Post Positions: How Slotting Will Impact Saturday's Race

One typically overlooked aspect of attempting to pick the Kentucky Derby winner is post position. It's important to remember that every gate isn't created equal, and where a horse starts his journey on Saturday will have a major impact on the finish.

The two top contenders—favorite Bodemeister and second-choice Union Rags—both had successful draws. Bodemeister claimed the No. 6 post, while Union Rags will be a little closer to the rail at No. 4.

Neither of those horses should be affected by their starting spots.

You can't say the same about some other derby hopefuls. Starting on the extreme inside or the extreme outside makes it nearly impossible to win the Run for the Roses.

Daddy Long Legs and Optimizer will start in the first two gates, severely limiting their upside. Even though the spots have produced 21 derby winners, none of those victories has occurred since 1986, when Ferdinand won from No. 1.

The reason there has been such a long drought is the increased size of the field. With 20 massive animals that have become bigger and stronger over the years all converging on the rail, the first couple of horses tend to get squeezed out.

It takes an awesome break for those on the inside to avoid that fate, and neither Daddy Long Legs nor Optimizer seem capable of it.

While being on the inside isn't good, being on the outside is even worse.

Only three horses in the race's history have come from Post 17 or farther to win. Even though there haven't always been 20 contenders, that's still a small percentage of success.

It's mainly because the decision-making process when starting so far out is a no-win situation. The jockey must either wait for the other horses to pass before moving to the rail early or attempt to outrace everybody else right away in order to move down low.

So, the outside horses are either at the back of the pack with dirt getting kicked in their face or in front and already running out of steam. Obviously, neither one is appealing.

That's bad news for Done Talking, Sabercat, I'll Have Another and Liaison.

Of those outside starters, I'll Have Another had the best chances before the posts were picked, but expectations have to get tempered based on breaking from the No. 19 gate.

Aside from those six horses on the inside or outside, every other contender has a reasonable starting position that shouldn't cause many problems.

Keep all of that in mind before finalizing your picks on Saturday.