Kentucky Derby 2012 Start Time: Don't Place Bets Until Right Before Big Race

I know you are just dying to place a bet on today’s Kentucky Derby well before the 6:24 p.m. ET start time…but don’t do it just yet.

The weather is ALWAYS the most important factor at Churchill Downs, and this year, the forecast is seemingly changing by the minute.

As of now, rain is expected to cover the Plains all the way to the Ohio Valley. With such a large storm, odds are Louisville isn’t going to miss this one completely. Scattered thunderstorms will more than likely wet the track. Right now, Weather.com has the chance of rain at 50 percent.

But the storm is supposed to clear out by the afternoon, with temperatures in the middle to upper 80s to follow in the afternoon. If the thunderstorms hold off, it may very well be the hottest temperature on race day in the last 11 years.

History of Rain at Kentucky Derby

Believe it or not, it has rained on 46 percent of Derby Days and raindrops have fallen on three of the last four years.

Although the recent history of weather suggests rain, since 2000, the Derby has been raced nine times on a “fast track” and three times on a “sloppy track.” What constitutes a sloppy track? Enough water in the dirt surface of the track to produce a splash when struck by the horses.

Longshots to Consider Based on Weather

Horses are affected by weather just like any other athlete. Went the Day Well (20:1) enters the Derby having won two races in a row and has incredible endurance to boot. The knock is on his lack of big-race experience, but if the track stays dry, this is a pick with incredible value.

On the flip side, El Padrino (20:1) has collected two wins on the slop in the past three months, but struggles in dry conditions.

So keep an eye on the weather report all the way up until right before the race. Weather is going to have a huge impact and you might as well have as much information as possible when making your final decision.

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