NFL Rumors: No Winning Season for New Orleans Saints If Drew Brees Goes Unsigned

Last season, Drew Brees set an NFL record with 5,476 passing yards and completed 71.2 percent of his throws.

He's easily one of the game's best players and has a Hall of Fame resume. In other words, Brees is the New Orleans Saints' offense, and without him, this high-powered production takes a 180-degree turn toward an immediate nosedive.

With Brees still unsigned, the Saints' 2012 campaign is heading in that direction.

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, New Orleans and Brees are still far apart:

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The New Orleans Saints and quarterback Drew Brees are not any closer to a contract extension and have made little progress on a long-term deal, a person familiar with the negotiations told ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter.

Brees, who was tagged by the Saints as their franchise player, has not signed his one-year tender and has skipped the team's voluntary workouts to date.

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So, at this point, it's reasonable to suspect that Brees won't be under center for the Big Easy in 2012. And if the situation remains stagnant, New Orleans won't finish with a .500 record, either.

Why? Let's look, because before Brees came along in 2006, the Saints had won just one playoff game in franchise history.

Schedule

Before we get to examining the Saints' schedule without Brees, let's consider it with Brees.

This season, the Saints play the entire NFC East and AFC West as well as the 49ers and Packers outside of the NFC South. The NFC East is loaded with intimidating pass-rushers—DeMarcus Ware, Jason Pierre-Paul, Trent Cole and Brian Orakpo, among others.

All have improved pass defenses as well, so Brees would feel more pressure, and his receivers would have more trouble getting open soon after the snap. As for Green Bay and San Francisco, New Orleans lost to both in 2011, and both have made significant upgrades to their weaknesses.

The Packers present a stronger pass-rush and run defense in the front seven, and San Francisco is more explosive on offense. Not to mention, the 'Niners field the league's best defense.

Now look at the AFC West, and we see Peyton Manning in Denver along with a dangerous Kansas City team—if it can remain healthy. San Diego also made improvements on defense with Melvin Ingram and Brandon Taylor.

As for their own division, the Saints see impressive additions by all three rivals. Tampa Bay did well in the draft as did Carolina, while Atlanta has a great complement to Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson with Asante Samuel.

With Brees at the helm, New Orleans would outscore eight opponents and squeak out at least another three wins on comebacks and turnovers. Take Brees out of the equation, and New Orleans will be lucky to win six games.

Efficiency

The Saints' offense is based around a quick pace and extreme efficiency. In 2011, Brees hit numerous career highs—in addition to yards and completion percentages—with 46 touchdowns, a 110.6 rating and 468 completions.

The man averaged 8.34 yards per pass attempt and 11.7 yards per completion, so it's no surprise New Orleans finished with the No. 1 ranked passing game. Even more impressive stats are related to how well Brees dished the rock around.

Six different players had 50 or more receptions, and three had 80-plus receptions. In addition, five players had scored six-plus touchdowns, and seven players accounted for 18 or more first downs. No backup quarterback can come into the Saints' offense and get similar results, especially one (Chase Daniels) that has only eight career passing attempts.

The New Orleans' offense is going to slow way down without Brees under center, and that ultimately has a trickle-down effect on the running game.

Balanced Attack

Although the Saints were supremely efficient on offense—courtesy of Brees and the passing game—New Orleans' ground game benefited greatly throughout the 2012 season.

The Saints' leading rusher from a year ago was Darren Sproles, with 603 yards, and he averaged almost seven yards per carry. From a total rushing yards standpoint, that's not productive, but almost seven per attempt most definitely is.

Courtesy of Brees thrashing defenses, New Orleans rarely saw run blitzes or stacked boxes, so any of its ball-carries could easily have success. In short, the Saints ranked No. 6 in rushing offense and averaged 133 yards per game on the ground.

For as much as the Big Easy relied on the passing attack, it was literally easy to hit between the tackles against nickel/dime defensive fronts. This production will unfortunately become significantly less without Brees taking snaps.

Defenses will instead play more traditional fronts and more press coverage to stifle the Saints at the line of scrimmage. More complex blitz packages will affect the passing game, and facing more linebackers will isolate their running game.

New Orleans ultimately loses its balanced attack and is forced into many unfavorable situations early on.

Presence Under Center

Other than Brees in 2011, the Saints' offense had four other players make the Pro Bowl—three of which, with Brees, were selected to the All-Pro team. Of those four players, however, three were offensive lineman, and the other was tight end Jimmy Graham.

One of those lineman was Carl Nicks, who's now going to pave the way for Doug Martin and LeGarrette Blount in Tampa Bay.

Had it not been for Brees, none of these players gain their notoriety, because the Saints' explosive efficiency revolves around him. Brees can read defenses pre-snap as good as anyone in the league, provides pinpoint accuracy, is more mobile than given credit for and makes the correct audible at the line.

Having to rely on an inexperienced quarterback with receiving targets (excluding Graham) that weren't recognized as Pro-Bowl caliber performers drastically reduces the Saints productivity. Fielding an already skeptical defense against the pass, New Orleans won't have the presence under center to keep pace against improved opponents.

John Rozum on Twitter.