Kentucky Derby 2012: Crowd Favorites Sure to Come Up Short

The post draws for the 2012 Kentucky Derby have been released and it really hasn’t cleared up anything for bettors.

Daddy Long Legs will be starting on the post and will be just a few horses away from the three current favorites positioned four through six. With the way everything is currently lined up, it’s hard to envision any of them taking home first place. Here’s why:

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Union Rags (9/2)

While he may sport a strong track record, Union Rags has never really competed in a “big number.” He hasn’t shown significant improvement from 2011 to 2012 and it remains to be seen if this horse is capable of keeping up for the entire one-and-a-quarter mile race.

The value simply isn’t there for a horse with glaring question marks.

Dullahan (8/1)

The big red flag here is his lack of experience on dirt surfaces. Is Dullahan nothing more than a turf/synthetic horse that is a completely different animal on a dirt surface?

All of his success has come away from the dirt and I have a feeling this deep closer will end up throwing in the towel once it falls behind after the halfway mark. Drawing the fifth position in the post is going to really squeeze him out.

Bodemeister (9/2)

Owner Bob Baffert’s pedigree is a big reason Bodemeister is one of the favorites, but it’s incredibly hard to ignore history.

The speedy colt did not make his racing debut until January of this year. The last time a horse won the derby after failing to race as a two-year-old?

While oddsmakers are enamored by his recent performance at the Arkansas Derby, this horse is too inexperienced to lay down such favorable odds. 

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