UFC 94: The Best Fight No One Is Talking About

As the seemingly endless hoard of B.J. Penn-Georges St. Pierre breakdowns file in, I'll take the high road and admit that there is nothing I could add that hasn't already been said. Although like many, I do expect St. Pierre to emerge victorious.

What stuns me though is while the St. Pierre-Penn fight has received more hype than any fight in recent memory, when the dust settles inside the MGM Grand Garden Arena on Saturday evening, neither B.J. nor Georges may take home that prestigious “Fight of the Night” bonus.

With a title-centric upper portion of the UFC 94 card—from titles contested to hopeful title shots secured—the main card’s opening bout features a pair of scrappy, high-octane lightweights just chuggin’ on up the ladder.

We all remember those crafty lightweights and what a shoe-in they were for an entertaining fight.

While 2008 didn’t provide fight fans with lightweight action to the caliber of the Tyson Griffin-Frankie Edgar, Roger Huerta-Clay Guida, Tyson Griffin-Clay Guida contests that dominated “Fight of the Year” ballots in 2007, UFC 94 isn’t too far off with the on-paper quality of it’s opening contest, when Guida squares off with “TUF 5” victor Nathan Diaz.

A pair of fighters stuck in that middle tier of the UFC’s lightweight scene, Diaz and Guida both possess terrific stamina and are at their most dangerous when not letting their hands fly.

It’s Guida’s collegiate-level wrestling vs. Diaz’s Gracie-bred jiu-jitsu.

For Nathan, this is his litmus test. Submitting the likes of Junior Assunciao and Kurt Pellegrino on UFC Fight Night cards is all fine and dandy, but if the Stockton, Calif., native wants to test the waters against the Sherks, Florians, Griffins, and Penns of the division, he needs to outlast the gatekeeper.

It’s much easier said than done, as Guida came to one step closer to shedding that “gatekeeper” label is favor of the far more esteemed “contender” label in his last fight, when he soundly bested another “TUF” winner in Mac Danzig.

Long revered not just for his trademark hairdo, but for hectic pacing and ruthless aggression, Guida fought one of the more sound, strategic bouts in his career, kicking his oft-reckless attitude to the curb in favor of just sticking with what was working: the takedown.

Eight takedowns, for that matter, and there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that if Guida wants to put Diaz on his back, he’ll meet little resistance in doing so.

The question is what will happen afterwards?

We’ve seen Diaz get battered, mauled, and out-worked on the ground, yet time and time again, he remains composed and finds a way to survive, more times than not through a vaunted triangle choke submission, a hold that has notched him four of his seven submission victories.

During his bout with Josh Neer, color commentator Joe Rogan used the term “slippery” to describe Diaz’s grappling.

Despite Diaz slithering his way out of every predicament Neer nearly put him in, his slipperiness should for quite the foil to someone like Guida, who presses his opponents virtually every second of every round.

Not much should be anticipated if these fighters choose to stand, as out of their 45 career fights, the two have won a combined six by way of knockout. Guida is the more powerful of the two and uses his striking more so to set up takedowns, although Diaz’s near-eight-inch reach advantage shouldn’t be discounted.

In the end, I feel it’s a matter of whether or not Diaz can answer the pace that Guida will inevitably set. Clay’s edge in wrestling will almost certainly dictate the level at which the fight is contested and from there, it’s a matter of whose signature skill will prevail.

Danzig could not keep up with Guida and was breathing heavily by the middle of the second round, which is nothing of raising the white flag to someone like Guida, who managed to pull and hold him to the mat seemingly at will.

Guida’s composure and recklessness will also be put to the test again, as “The Carpenter” has been known to have a bit of a soft spot in his armor when it comes to submission defense. While Guida’s never been knocked out, five of his nine losses are by way of submission and Diaz has shown in the past that he can prey on the slightest opening given to him by his opponent.

Diaz is likely going to be taken down and will presumably be fighting from behind on the scorecards. But it’s nothing he hasn’t been through before during his post-reality show run inside the octagon.

So rest assured fight fans, because while their final numbers may be similar, UFC 94 isn’t UFC 91.

Sure, they both shill the big-name, big-time main event, but UFC 94 isn’t the one-fight card that UFC 91 was billed as.

The coverage would lead you to believe so, but don’t be shocked if (yet again) the best fight of the evening is the one we didn’t even pay for.