Gemologist: Churchill Downs Track Record Suggests Successful Kentucky Derby

Without a clear-cut favorite in the 2012 Kentucky Derby, one of the only ways to project success is the past history a horse has had at Churchill Downs.

Gemologist is currently 7:1 odds to win the Derby (3^rd best) because the horse is undefeated at Churchill Downs (2-for-2), including the Grad 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at his juvenile finale.  

The speedy colt is coming off a breathtaking victory at the Wood Memorial that saw him register a career-best 102 BRIS Speed rating.

The fresh and lightly-raced Tiznow colt has been bred perfectly for a 1.4-mile track like the one in Louisville, and is going to be one of the leading horses coming down the stretch run on Saturday.

Gemologist enters Saturday with a 5-0 record all-time, and will be the 23^rd horse to enter the Derby attempting to retain an unblemished record since 1900. Only seven have completed the feat, with the last horse being Big Brown in 2008.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has nothing but glowing remarks about his latest prize. After training the 2012 Derby winner Super Saver in 2010, you have to be excited when hearing comments like this coming from his mouth less than a week before the race (via Los Angeles Times):

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So far, it would be hard to be unhappy with anything he's done so far his whole career. Gemologist is a bigger and stouter, heavier horse than Super Saver. But at the same time Super Saver was a very athletic, smooth-moving, efficient kind of horse… but their racing backgrounds and preparation are almost identical.

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Obviously the trainer is excited, but there are more than enough signs that point to a strong performance from Gemologist. As long as the rain holds off and the horse doesn’t get too excited in front of the humongous crowd, expect the speed and familiarity of the track to propel Gemologist to a top-three finish and potentially the top spot once again at Churchill Downs. 

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