Kentucky Derby 2012 Post Draw: Breaking Down the Best and Worst Positions

Every year on the first Saturday in May, a cavalry charge of three-year-olds shoots out of the gate for the most famous race in America. The field of 20 is the largest the young horses will probably ever experience, and some of them will be at more of a disadvantage than ever.

While many already have their picks figured out for Saturday, those same people will be waiting until post positions are drawn to feel confident in their horses. What stalls are the most disadvantaged or advantaged when the gates open on May 5? Let’s take a look.

Gate No. 1

The colt in Gate No.1 will have to be quick to get a good position coming out of the gate. Because of the position of the starting gate on the turn, the first stall sends the horse right into the rail of the straightaway.

Many horses have won from the No. 1 starting position over the years, but it has also cost some good horses the race as well. Only two horses have won from the No. 1 gate since 1964.

Due to its position, I’d put gate No. 1 more in the disadvantage category.

Gate No. 2

Like Gate No. 1, Gate No. 2 has had bad luck when it comes to winners. While it had four winners from 1970 to 1978, no one has won from it since.

Gate No. 2 is also in a compromising position, which may hurt the horse’s chances, especially if the No. 1 horse is trying to get off the rail.

It should be noted that Affirmed was the last horse to win from this position, so even then, it took a pretty awesome horse to do anything. Because of this, it goes in the disadvantage pile.

Gate No. 20

Big Brown was the last winner from this hole, but he is the only one since at least 1970 to manage the feat.

While the No. 1 horse has the rail to worry about, the No. 20 horse has a much longer distance to run unless they can get over quick. The race is already 1.25 miles, so the extra distance this outer horse has to go can be a deal breaker in the end.

Gate No. 5

Now that we’ve looked at the bad gates, it’s time for some good news.

Since 1991, two horses have won from gate five. These include two recent winners in War Emblem and Funny Cide.

Gate No. 5 is far enough out that there’s no rail trouble but also close enough in that the horse can tuck himself in and have a nice ground-saving trip.

The last winner to come from gate No. 5 was in 2003, but it’s still one to watch when it comes to drawing post positions.

Gate No. 16

Gate No. 16 seems as though it may be the golden gate in this day and age.

Last year’s winner, Animal Kingdom, won from the No. 16 position, as did 2001’s winner Monarchos. From 1990 to 1999, three horses won from that gate (two won from it’s neighbor, No. 15). Although from 1970 to 1990, there were no winners from there.

While Gate No. 16 isn’t right next to the small gap where the auxiliary gate connects (gate No. 15 gets that little extra room), No. 16 has a little more breathing room to get a good position.