Machida vs. Silva: The Break Down

As with all the other break downs I do, I will try my best to stay as objectionable as possible which is saying something, because one of these two fighters happens to be a favorite of mine (by the way it’s Machida).  I’ll be using my standard system by looking at the Stand-up game, the Ground game and the Intangibles.   This fight will be an important fight in regards to the future of the Light Heavyweight Division, so with that in mind let the breakdown of the Battle of the Brazilians begin. 

The Stand-up Game

To start with both men have very solid, yet very different standup games.  Thiago Silva has great Muay Thai skills and is very powerful with his punches.  He has leg kick for days and his punches come at you very fast and with some serious power.  In the fight with Tomasz Drwal he landed punch after punch eventually dropping him to a bloody, beaten pulp. 

The only question with Silva is whether or not he can take a punch.  He was dropped by Antonio Mendes early in the first in his last fight, however the kick that Mendes landed was a beautiful head kick, so that could just be the result of well timed kick. 

If you go back and look at previous fight, Silva shows limited head movement and at times he stands very straight while punching leaving his chin very exposed.  This is the main concern I have for him in the standup. 

Lyoto Machida also has some very sound standup.  His Karate background allows him to move in and out very quickly, utilizing his punches and kicks better than most men at 205.  He has leg kicks that are very accurate, and he uses them as jabs at times to set up other moves.  If you go back to look at the Sam Hoger fight you can see how he loves the leg kick to the body. 

By the end of that fight Sam was covering up his right side more than his face.  For me his punches are what are going to determine how the fight will go.  He has easily one of the best counter lefts in the MMA world.  That is the punch that dropped Sokoudjou which ultimately lead to the submission.  To add to that Machida has great head movement and very good lateral movement.

Both men have great Stand-up and the only real reason I would give the nod to Machida is because of his ability to not get hit.  I’ve seen too much video on Silva to know how little he moves his head, so if anyone is going to get hit its Silva.

The Ground Game

Lyoto Machida is a student of Sumo and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and currently trains with one of the best ground fighters in the game in Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria.  He is also very hard to get to the ground.  Watch any of his fights and you see fighter after fighter have no luck in taking the fight to the ground.

As for submissions he only has two win by submission and first was in 2004 and the submission win against Soko which took forever for him to sink in.  So for me his greatest attribute is his Sumo training which gives him outstanding balance and helps prevent being taken down. 

Thiago Silva is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and has one of the best top games in the division.  Like Machida he doesn’t have a ton of submission victories, however he uses his ability to keep people from sweeping him, then rains down some out of this world ground and pound. 

Now for me the ground game is going to be the factor of the fight.  Without question Thiago Silva has the advantage here.  I firmly believe that no one at 205 has better top position than Thiago Silva, and if he were to wrestle with anyone at the weight class he would get the top position and win every time.

The question will be can Thiago get it there and I think that will be a big issue.  That said Thiago still is a better BJJ competitor and wins the Ground Game.

Intangibles

The biggest intangible is the experience factor.  Lyoto Machida has been in with some great fighters at 205.  He has wins over Rich Franklin, BJ Penn, Kaz Nakamura, Sokoudjou, and Tito Ortiz.  He trains with former and current UFC champion in Anderson Silva, Big Nog, and Vitor Belfort.  He just has more and better people to get advice from and train with.

Yes Silva trains at American Top Team, but you just can’t substitute that kind of experience.  I’m sure Thiago has been game planning his butt off for Machida, but you are never going to find a guy with his skill set, and unfortunately for Thiago, Machida can find more than one fighter who can do what he can do. 

Finally this may sound dumb but I feel that this is a fight that Machida has to have more than Thiago.  Thiago is very young and even with a loss he will still be very relevant in the division for years to come.  I think that Machida knows that he has to win this fight in order to stay at the top of the ladder at 205. 

Prediction

I think that the win comes easier for Machida then for Thiago Silva.  Silva will have to get this fight to the ground if he wants to win, and Machida can win by TKO or point his way to a victory.  With that said I think that Silva will jump out early and be too aggressive and find himself making out with Machida’s counter left.  Then Machida will be able to pound on Thiago till the ref stops it.  Lyoto Machida wins via TKO late in the first.