Kentucky Derby 2012: Inexperienced Bodemeister Has Trainer to Defy History

A lot is being made about Bodemeister being inexperienced and how that may hurt him in the 138th Kentucky Derby on Saturday. After all, the last time a horse was unraced at two years old and won the Kentucky Derby was in 1882.

But Bodemeister does have one thing on his side: He has an experienced, not to mention legendary, trainer in Bob Baffert.

On April 14, Bodemeister won the Arkansas Derby by an astounding 9 1/2 lengths, making him an instant favorite at Churchill Downs.

But it wasn't exactly a surprise to Baffert. In fact, not racing Bodemeister at two years old was actually Baffert's strategy all along.

Baffert said, via the Lexington Herald-Leader:

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"He was just immature. I wasn't in a big hurry with him. I'm glad I did. It made him a better horse. Now, I can see he's getting stronger and stronger as we get along."

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Indeed. Bodemeister's victory at the Arkansas Derby wasn't just a fluke. He's not only an exceptionally fast horse, he has an uncanny ability to turn it on down the stretch despite being in the forefront for much of the race. In short, he doesn't run like an inexperienced horse at all.

That's why simply saying history is against Bodemeister is faulty. If you simply look at Bodemeister and the work Baffert has done with the colt, it's easy to see why Bodemeister is one of the favorites at the Kentucky Derby this year.

Of course, taking into account Baffert's history makes Bodemeister a promising favorite as well. After all, Baffert has won the historic race three times since 1997, tying him for fourth place among Derby-winning trainers all-time. Bodemeister has a bit of history on his side, too.

If Bodemeister wins the 2012 Kentucky Derby, we shouldn't look at it as a horse who simply defied history. We should look at it as the best horse winning.