College Football Bowl Projections: 10 Teams out Last Year, in This Year

Of the 120 college football teams that participated at the FBS level in 2011-12, a whopping 70 (or 58 percent) made it to the postseason in the form of a bowl game.

That means, of course, that only 50 squads, or a minority of 42 percent, didn’t go bowling last season.

You’ve got to figure that one of the top three goals of the bottom 50 from last season will be to garner a bowl bid in the upcoming season.

This aim means winning at least six games against a minimum of five FBS opponents and a maximum of one FCS foe, or basically going .500 on the year.

The following slideshow highlights 10 teams who sat home and watched the bowl festivities on TV in 2011, but who are likely to be purchasing t-shirts and postseason hotel stays in 2012.

The over-serving of bowl games on the current buffet that is college football may be completely senseless, but that doesn’t mean we don’t want our teams to be included, for the love of God.

As a note, the returning starters' figures for this presentation are from the Phil Steele brain trust while the recruiting numbers come via the Rivals.com comprehensive rankings.

Maryland

The Terrapins dismal 2-10 showing in the opening salvo of the Randy Edsall era at Maryland understandably kept them out of the expansive bowl picture last season.

For 2012, the Terps return a whopping 17 starters (No. 20 in the nation and No. 2 in the ACC) and will be technically led by a group that was recruited as the No. 26 class in 2009 and the No. 36 class of 2010.

Non-conference games against FCS William & Mary (who they will reportedly play as a couple), Temple and UConn (oh, the irony) are doable meaning the Terrapins will need to find the other three wins amongst a trip to West Virgina and a full bore ACC slate.

If Edsall is the long-term solution at Maryland he’ll need to find the postseason this year, which is a very realistic aim given what he has to work with.

Boston College

Boston College broke its streak of 12 consecutive bowl appearances last season by dropping to 4-8 in a year that featured an offense that struggled to score—to the tune of being ranked No. 112 nationally in points for.

The 2012 Eagles return an impressive 19 starters (nine on both sides of the ball and then one on special teams) which earns them the No. 1 rank in the ACC and a tie for No. 4 nationally.

Boston College’s schedule is no picnic and it’s most likely they’ll have to find their six wins via a game versus FCS Maine, road trips to Northwestern, Army, NC State or Wake Forest and then a home contest against Maryland.

The Eagles slate makes bowl eligibility a higher aim than other teams on our list, but they’ll have the experience to get it done.

 

USF

The young 2011 Bulls finished the season 5-7, effectively ending a program-record six consecutive bowl-bid streak that began in 2005.

In 2012, USF has a golden opportunity, from several vantage points, to make a serious run at what could be the first football title of any kind in school history.

To start with, the Bulls return 18 starters from a team that was, at least on paper, reasonably efficient in every major statistical category other than pass defense.

Secondly, the senior class at USF is technically the No. 29-ranked recruiting class from 2009, meaning that the wine has aged perfectly and is ready to be served in a crystal goblet.

Lastly, you’ve got a schedule which, with the exception of a visit from Florida State in late September and a trip down to Miami in mid-November, could be managed flawlessly if the Bulls can get on a roll.

USF may well be one of the biggest surprise teams of the 2012 season.

 

UConn

One year after their triumphant rise to the BCS, UConn dropped to 5-7 in 2011 and fell almost completely out of the national picture in college football.

Moving forward, it will be important not to count the Huskies out of the bowl picture in 2012 due to the fact that they return 17 starters and play a schedule that is relatively easy by BCS conference standards.

UConn’s six necessary wins to go bowling are likely to be found among home contests against UMass, Buffalo or Temple and road visits to Western Michigan, Rutgers and Syracuse.

Indiana

The Hoosiers haven’t been to a bowl game since 2007 when they faced Oklahoma State in the Insight Bowl (Indiana lost, 49-33), and before that they hadn’t experienced a postseason appearance since 1993 when they got drilled, 45-20, by Virginia Tech in the Independence Bowl.

Yes, the last time Indiana won a bowl game was 1991 when they blanked Baylor 24-0 in the Copper Bowl.

Add in the fact that Indiana went 1-11 last season and was outscored by opponents 448 to 257 and the Hoosiers seem like the biggest long shot on this list.

But despite the cold, hard (and scary) facts, Indiana returns 19 starters in 2012 (No. 1 in the Big Ten and tied for No. 4 nationally) and is flying so far under the radar that covertly second-year head coach Kevin Wilson might actually be in an enviable position.

Seriously?

Yes.

Six wins—that’s what it will take, and it won’t be easy.

First, the Hoosiers must win games versus FCS Indiana State, at UMass, versus Ball State and at Navy and then they’ll have to find two additional victories among their full slate of Big Ten foes.

The best options for the final two (given they’ve won the first four) are likely to come via road trips to Northwestern, Purdue and Illinois.

If Indiana can pull it off, it will be one of the best stories of the 2012 football campaign.

Texas Tech

A rash of season-ending injuries and the complete lack of a viable defense painfully took Texas Tech out of the bowl picture in 2011 for the first time since 1999.

After dropping the last five games of the season, Tech found themselves 5-7 and trying to book a table at Buffalo Wild Wings for Capital One Bowl Week.

As ugly as 2011 was for the Red Raiders, 2012 could be glossy and shiny on the heels of a whopping 20 returning starters (No. 1 in the Big 12 and tied for No. 2 nationally), continuing improvements in terms of recruiting and yet another defensive coordinator.

Tech’s schedule isn’t insurmountable and features non-conference blockbusters versus FCS Northwestern State, Texas State and New Mexico and fortuitously Texas, Oklahoma and West Virginia are all home games.

Tommy Tuberville’s third season in Lubbock has all the potential of reaping the benefits he alluded to when he went boldly into the wind-whipped South Plains after the abrupt exit of a certain swashbuckler.

 

USC

Though we could point to the Men of Troy’s 17 returning starters from a 2011 product that won 10 games and did everything well but play pass defense, USC was out of the bowl picture last year and is likely to be in this season because of the lifting of their postseason ban.

Yes, after a two-year, self-inflicted hiatus, the Trojans are likely to be bowl bound and perhaps BCS destined.

If nothing else, we’re about to find out how good of a football coach Kiffin the Younger really is.

Washington State

Though it will be intriguing to see how rapidly the Mike Leach factor will be noticeable at Washington State, this is a team that played reasonably well in 2011 and returns 15 starters to campus.

Yes, they went 4-8 and yes, their starting QB is gone, but this is a team that will likely play offense very effectively under Leach and then returns nine starters to a defense that has lots of room for improvement.

Six wins stand between the Cougars and their first bowl appearance since the 2003 Holiday Bowl (which they won over Texas, 28-20), which means winning the opener at BYU and then besting non-conference foes FCS Eastern Washington and UNLV.

Washington State has games versus Colorado, Cal and UCLA at home which are likely the best opportunity to get to six.

Tennessee

It’s hard to imagine a guy that will need to show more on-field improvement in 2012 than will Tennessee’s Derek Dooley.

Though the 2010 Vols ascended to the Music City Bowl (which they bizarrely lost to North Carolina), Dooley has yet to get Tennessee over the .500 mark since he took over two years ago.

The Volunteers return a SEC-high 20 starters in 2012 and have the muzzle loaded with what was the No. 10 recruiting class from 2009 (technically the seniors), the No. 9 group from 2010, the No. 13 class of 2011 and then the No. 18 group from 2012.

Though Tennessee has to play a vexing SEC slate, Dooley has as full of a cupboard as anyone in the nation to work with on his way to six-plus wins. And you have to figure that is precisely what he’ll need, at minimum, to continue wearing the orange pants.

The Vols should get a head start on winning in 2012 with non-conference games versus NC State (the opener in Atlanta), versus FCS Georgia State, versus Akron and versus Troy.

That’s four wins, and surely Tennessee can find two or three more to get to a bowl game.

 

Ole Miss

Taking over the reins at a program that went 2-10 last season and who plays in the super stacked SEC West is no picnic, but incoming head coach Hugh Freeze is still living the dream at Ole Miss.

Freeze returns a whopping 17 starters to his first offering in 2012, and beyond that he’ll be working with a group of athletes who were recruited at an almost surprising high level.

The seniors who will technically lead the Rebels onto the field this season were recruited as the No. 18 class in 2009, the juniors were similarly No. 18 in 2010, the sophomores were No. 19 in 2011 and the freshmen were No. 45.

Yes, this is Ole Miss, and yes, they have struggled monumentally—but this is a talented team with a young, very motivated head coach.

What sets the Rebels quest for bowl eligibility apart from other members of this list is the fact that their schedule is cosmically more difficult.

Non-conference games versus FCS Central Arkansas, UTEP and Tulane give way to the rest of the slate which is liable to keep Oxford residents sleepless.

Texas in Oxford, at Alabama, versus Texas A&M, versus Auburn, at Arkansas, at Georgia, versus Vandy, at LSU and versus Mississippi State.

Yikes!