Steelers-Cardinals: The X Factor in Super Bowl XLIII

It's the last week in January. There's cold weather for the northern and mountain states, and some less-than-optimal golf weather in Florida. The last week in January also brings, with every passing year, the last weekend of scheduled NFL football. This is, of course the Super Bowl, the biggest single game event in all of sports, in my opinion.

This year we will be watching the tried-and-true Pittsburgh Steelers face the underdog, less conventional Arizona Cardinals. Many are rooting for the Cardinals, but few foresee the red confetti falling this Sunday.

After some research, I have identified an "X-factor" for the big game that could help determine a more clear-cut favorite.

Everyone knows the Cardinals based on players like Larry Fitzgerald and Kurt Warner. As for the Steelers, James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, Ben Roethlisberger, and Hines Ward are the faces associated with the steel city team.

There are many intriguing matchups to watch come Sunday, but there could be one that will make a key, but discreet impact on the overall outcome of the game. The production of the tight ends.

The Steelers have two quality tight ends in Heath Miller and Matt Spaeth. The same cannot be said for the Cardinals. For all the hype and credit that Warner, Fitzgerald, Boldin, Breaston, and Urban get, the tight end position is, shockingly, a complete non-factor for the otherwise high-octane Arizona passing game.

If I asked you to name two of Arizona's three tight ends that recorded catches for the Cardinals, I bet at least 80 percent of fans wouldn't be able to name them.

They are Leonard Pope, Ben Patrick, Stephen Spach, and Jerame Tuman (yes, the same Jerame Tuman who was once on the Steelers).

The 2008 season (including the playoffs) for these four men consisted of 25 receptions for 237 yards, no touchdowns, and one two-point conversion. That is between all four of them. The leader of the group, Patrick, had 11 receptions for 104 yards on the season.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, had some substantial production from their tight ends. Miller, Spaeth, and Sean McHugh combined for 74 catches, 773 yards and four touchdowns. 54 of those catches went to Miller, who missed several games due to injury.

Opposing tight ends did not fare as well against Pittsburgh, but when they did, their team had a chance to win the game.

In Pittsburgh's 14 wins, opposing tight ends had 45 receptions for 472 yards and only one touchdown. In four losses, they allowed 15 catches for 127 yards and two touchdowns. In two out of their four losses, they allowed a touchdown to a tight end, but in all 14 wins, they only allowed one.

That might be making a stretch, but it's a fact that "good" tight ends can do well against the 3-4 defense.

Tennessee's Bo Scaife and Alge Crumpler combined for seven receptions and 55 yards against the Steelers, Kellen Winslow had the same stats when the Browns faced the them, and Chris Cooley had eight for 78 yards.

This is where the Cardinals lose this matchup. Their tight ends had 25 receptions all season, including the playoffs. No matter the size difference, one of Pittsburgh's linebackers will be able to cover any of them.

The Cardinals, however, aren't so lucky. After Philadelphia's Brent Celek gashed the Cardinal defense for 10 passes, 83 yards and two touchdowns, it looks like Ben Roethlisberger could be looking to Heath Miller more and more in this game.

Arizona's secondary is quite talented, with Adrian Wilson, Roderick Hood, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Antrel Rolle. But that group will have their hands full with Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Nate Washington, and Limas Sweed, all of whom should match up well with the Cardinals' defensive backs.

So then, will Chicke Okeafor or Karlos Dansby be able to run with Heath Miller? I don't think so.

Of course, the Cardinals will throw to Fitzgerald and Boldin, but sometimes they will need a short first down, and it is more than likely that the Steelers will be able to shut down Arizona's running game for the most part.

If they can't rely on the tight end to get open on a short crossing route to pick up the first down, they will have a hard time staying in the game.

The Cardinals' defense has played to an extremely high level in the past three games, but they may be overpowered with Willie Parker, Heath Miller, and the Pittsburgh receivers all to deal with.

The X-factor in this Super Bowl could come down to the play of Heath Miller, and the play, or lack thereof, of the Arizona tight ends.

That is why I do not foresee a Cardinal victory, even though I think it would make for a great story.