St. Pierre Vs. Penn II: Tale of the Tape

How does a person even begin to break down and analyze what will probably end up being one of the biggest fights of 2009? 

UFC welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre and UFC lightweight champion BJ Penn fought for the first time at UFC 58 back in 2006. That first matchup saw St. Pierre get battered and bruised throughout the first round, but come back in the final two rounds to win a split decision victory. 

We are now two years down the road, and once again a match up between GSP and "The Prodigy" has everyone eager with anticipation.

While personal preference and emotions always come in to play when "predicting" a fight, lets take a bit more analytical approach here and attempt to break down this rematch.

Striking - BJ Penn's victory over Sean Sherk at UFC 84 was his first victory via strikes since his explosive days at lightweight back in 2001-2002. While Penn is known for his grappling, he does have a solid stand-up game and has proven to be an elusive target to hit for most of his opponents.

Penn possesses a strong jab and some surprising hand speed, but does not bring much to the table with leg or body kicks.

Georges St. Pierre's striking game is technical and strong as well. St. Pierre will have a clear reach advantage in this fight and that will only improve his advantage on the feet. GSP physically roughed up Jon Fitch at UFC 87 and has used the same striking and kicking game to disrupt many of his recent opponents.

In their first meeting, Penn seemed to control the striking in the first round as GSP's face showed the damage when the bell rang. I believe the thumb to GSP's eye played the largest factor in that, but it still cannot be denied that Penn's striking was effective and George's is susceptible to an accurate striking attack.

Since their meeting two years ago, St. Pierre's striking has improved immensely under the tutelage of Greg Jackson and others and I don't see BJ Penn being able to do the same type of striking damage in this fight.

Edge: Georges St. Pierre

Wrestling - In the past few years, Georges St. Pierre has proven himself to be one of the best wrestlers in MMA. In fact, St. Pierre's wrestling has advanced so far that he considered attempting to compete for the Canadian wrestling team at last years Olympics.

Even when fighting opponents who were, at the time, considered superior wrestlers, like Josh Koscheck or Sean Sherk, St. Pierre easily dominated the wrestling game. St. Pierre has sharp, crisp takedown attempts and are usually successful and once he lands his opponent on the mat, GSP's ground control is superb.

BJ Penn has never been known for having a strong wrestling game or for his takedown skills. In fact, when on his back or working from the top, Penn rarely uses pure wrestling control and instead relies on waiting for openings to use his BJJ talents.

The one place BJ Penn holds an edge over GSP, and everyone else in MMA, is in takedown defense. Penn has an uncanny ability to keep his balance and prevent himself from going down when he chooses to.

Sure, even B.J. Penn couldn't prevent a takedown from a solid double-leg attempt, but anything less probably won't get the job done against "The Prodigy."

Edge: Georges St. Pierre

Grappling / Submissions - An area of the fight where most prognosticators will give BJ Penn the decided advantage is in the submission and grappling game. While I do agree that Penn holds the edge in this category, I don't think the gap between the two fighters is all that large.

Penn clearly has a natural talent for grappling and has honed that skill into a true art form over the course of his career. Penn's natural flexibility allow him to maneuver himself in and out of some seemingly impossible positions while grappling with his opponent.

Penn can secure a submission from any position or angle and St. Pierre's long limbs may prove to be a disadvantage in this aspect of the fight.

While Penn may be the natural grappler, St. Pierre is no slouch when it comes to BJJ himself. GSP has worked hard on his grappling skills and uses his excellent takedowns and ground control to setup submission attempts from the top.

I think against most other fighters, GSP would hold an edge in grappling, but its just not very likely that we will see BJ Penn get caught in a submission by Georges or anyone else.

Edge: BJ Penn

Conditioning - BJ Penn could train for two years and still not have a shot at coming into this fight in better condition then Georges St. Pierre will. GSP is a physical specimen and has never once had an issue with cardio or physical conditioning.

The same can clearly not be said for BJ Penn. Sadly, a person's reputation always precedes them, and BJ Penn's career has been rife with instances of his conditioning being what cost him victory in a fight. Since his drop to lightweight in 2007, we have seen B.J. Penn in probably the best shape of his career.

However, this fight is not taking place at lightweight and Penn will need to be carrying that extra weight he shed at lightweight to compete with GSP. St. Pierre will most likely enter the fight around 180-185 lbs. and that size advantage will play a large factor in the fight.

We have seen Penn barely able to get past the third round when he is carry around the extra weight he needs to at welterweight or middleweight. While I do expect Penn to come into this fight in good shape, I think it's safe to say he won't be in better shape then Georges St. Pierre.

If the fight does make it into the later rounds, GSP clearly will be holding the conditioning advantage.

Edge: Georges St. Pierre

No matter how the fight plays out, all mixed martial arts fans are in for a treat. In my book though, this analysis can lead to only one prefight prediction.

Winner: Georges St. Pierre