Mayweather vs. Cotto: Complete Preview and Predictions for the Big Fight

Let us be clear from the start: this is not the fight that anybody wanted to see Floyd Mayweather Jr. fighting in the spring of 2012.

When the new year began last January, there were high hopes across the boxing world that at long last the fight everybody has been waiting on since the Bush/Cheney years was finally set to happen.

But in the end, in the immortal words of Steven Tyler, it was  "the same old story, same old song and dance, my friends." Once more, the fight of this generation failed to materialize.

It failed to happen because Michael Koncz couldn't advise Manny Pacquiao to take the fight until after Bob Arum had time to erect a special temporary stadium. 

Or else it was because Floyd Mayweather Jr. is deluded enough to believe he truly deserves to hire Pacquiao like an opponent, while he keeps the entire pay-per-view end. 

Or maybe it was simply a matter of Bob Arum just not being interested in promoting any fight where even a dime will go to Floyd Mayweather Jr.

Personally, I still can't say for sure why this fight hasn't happened yet, and why it seems so clearly destined not to happen. And believe me, I've spent a lot more time reading, writing and thinking about it than I really wanted to in what the Mayans believe might be our last year on the the planet.

But I'm willing to give Mayweather credit for this: if the fight with Pacquiao just wasn't going to happen, putting this bout together with Miguel Cotto for Cinco de Mayo (this coming Saturday) was surely the next best thing he could have done. 

Cotto is the universally recognized No. 1 champion in the next weight class up for Floyd Mayweather Jr. Cotto, 37(30)-2(2), won his first 32 fights. He is a three-division world champion, one of the most talented and decorated fighters of his generation.

And he has been one of the sport's biggest box office attractions for years now. Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Miguel Cotto is another one of those fights that boxing fans have wanted to see since way back in the days before a whole lot of people even knew who Barack Obama was yet.

If the soon-to-be serving time Mayweather has embraced the black-hat role in recent years, Miguel Cotto has long been among the most popular fighters in the sport. He is viewed as an articulate and thoughtful family man of relatively few words, a true gentleman in this brutally violent sport. 

For the Mayweather haters, Cotto offers the tantalizing prospect for a hero. If Pacman is to be denied his chance, Cotto is perhaps the next best thing. 

Of course the smart money has been going pretty much with Floyd Mayweather Jr since the line opened. He's 42-0 and the No. 1-rated pound-for-pound fighter in the world, and he didn't get to be either of those things by accident.

Mayweather has clear advantages in athleticism, hand speed, footwork, defensive acumen and overall ring intelligence. I figure Cotto is stronger and that he has enough skill and ring generalship to get a lot of mileage out of what just might be his only real clean-cut advantage.  

Cotto is going to make it a fight and he will give himself at least some chance to win. The growing realization that this is true probably accounts for the fact that the line has been moving back towards Cotto, the closer the fight gets. It's not every day you get a chance to bet on a future Hall of Famer at about 5-1. 

This is a fight featuring two over-30 fighters, so there have to be questions about both men. Floyd Mayweather Jr. is 35 now, legally old enough to get elected president of the nation. Will he still have the blazing speed he has become famous for?

Some questions were raised about Mayweather's foot speed during his recent fight with Victor Ortiz, when the aggressive 24-year-old had some degree of success at trapping Mayweather against the ropes. 

Of course, it could be argued that Mayweather wasn't worried about Ortiz trapping him against the ropes, that he probably wanted him to, even though it was what Ortiz needed to do to win.

Once Mayweather found himself on the ropes he proceeded to dope the nominal champ, proving a frustratingly elusive target for Ortiz, flustering him to the point where he fouled openly and then so thoroughly lost his head that he tried to hug Mayweather, and then forgot to defend himself.

If Mayweather allows Cotto to trap him on the ropes, there's no chance the Puerto Rican icon won't remain patient, picking his shots.

I don't think Mayweather is going to want to play the rope-a-dope game this time around. It's a more risky, potentially punishing bet against Cotto.

Can he still beat Cotto if Cotto makes him fight against the ropes? Probably. But it will be a much more physical, exciting fight.

There are more questions hanging over the 31-year-old Cotto. First and foremost is whether or not he is "shot," if he has ever fully recovered from the brutal 12-round TKO loss he suffered against Manny Pacquiao almost three years ago, or the brutal 11-round TKO he suffered against Antonio Margarito a little over a year before that.

Either of those beatings alone might knock a fighter down in class, at the very least. But on paper Cotto has been resurrected since that low point. In June 2010, he stopped undefeated Yuri Foreman in Yankee Stadium to capture the WBA light middleweight title.

He TKO'd wild man Ricardo Mayorga in March 2011 and then avenged his loss to Margarito last December in Madison Square Garden, punching his rival's eye shut and stopping him after 10.

None of those three are close to Floyd Mayweather Jr, and that's precisely the rub. Foreman was a one-legged fighter and something quite a bit less than an all-time great, anyway. Mayorga was a tough customer, but also a nut job who has gone out of his way to absorb punishment during his colorful career.

Considering the beat-down Pacquiao had just put on Margarito (it was touch-and-go up until the end as to whether New York State would even license him) he was clearly damaged goods, his eye ready to be closed going in.

You could argue that Cotto has not really fought an elite fighter since getting demolished by Pacquiao. In an article titled "Resurrection or Mirage?" in the most recent issue of The Ring, Teddy Atlas was direct in his quoted assessment:

"

I like Miguel Cotto...I like the champion he is. The man he is. But he's a mirage now...This is no resurrection. It's more about who he's fought..Even guys who are sick have days when they feel pretty good. You go visit them on those days and you leave thinking 'He's doing good. He's getting better.' But he's not getting better.

"

You could counter that the Mayorga and Margarito fights did require Cotto to exert tremendous physical energy and power, even if his opponents were no longer world-class fighters. Both of those fights were fought at a tougher pace than Mayweather is likely to require.

Of course, Mayweather is going to hit Cotto with cleaner, more accurate shots to the head. 

I love an underdog, upset story as much as any fan. Miguel Cotto is one of my favorite fighters to write about and there are few stories I would enjoy writing more than one about him shocking the world in Vegas next Saturday.  

Make no mistake, Cotto will make a fight of it. He'll force Mayweather to raise his own work rate, or risk having Cotto steal rounds based on pure punching volume and hustle. 

In the end, I expect Mayweather to walk away from the night still undefeated. But there is a lot of potential for this to be one of those boxing nights you don't want to miss.