UFC 146: Roy Nelson vs. Gabriel Gonzaga Head-to-Toe Breakdown

At UFC 146, there will be a battle of big BJJ black belts—awesome alliteration, eh?—as Roy "Big Country" Nelson will face off against Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga.

Gonzaga makes his second appearance in the UFC in his second stint with the organization. In his first fight back, he won by arm triangle in just over three minutes.

Nelson is on the other end of the spectrum, having lost three of his last four fights, and all by lopsided decision.

Both fighters will be looking to make a statement, but let's take a look at who is actually going to make it.

Striking

Gabriel Gonzaga scored a highlight-reel headkick knockout over Mirko Cro Cop, and suddenly, he thought he was a striker.

It was a mistake.

After that fight, he would go on to lose five of his last eight, including four by (T)KO, and then finally losing a decision to Brendan Schaub at UFC 121, which earned him his initial release from the UFC.

Roy Nelson hasn't been successful in his last few fights, having gone 1-3 in his last four, but he still has a striking edge.

Nelson's last seven wins have come by (T)KO, and nine of his 16 wins total have come by strikes. No doubt who has the edge.

Edge: Roy Nelson

Wrestling

Wrestling is an area where both fighters are equally proficient.

They have the ability to take the fight to the ground, but they were never any type of high-level amateur wrestler.

They can—usually—decide where they want the fight to take place.

Edge: Push

Submissions

Roy Nelson is very capable of submitting opponents. He is a BJJ black belt and has won four fights with a legitimate submission hold.

However, he doesn't chose to utilize his BJJ as much anymore.

On the other hand, Gonzaga has gotten back to his BJJ roots and has won his last two fights with submissions.

Gonzaga knows now that his jiu jitsu got him to where he is, and that's what he needs to use to be a top fighter once again.

Edge: Gabriel Gonzaga

Strength and Conditioning

Roy Nelson has never been known for his cardio, and Gonzaga is a reaaaaaaally strong fighter.

One attribute Nelson doesn't have, and one attribute Gonzaga does have. It's a clear choice to see who has the advantage here.

Edge: Gabriel Gonzaga

Experience

The number of fights is rather close between these two. Nelson has 23 fights, six in the UFC. Gonzaga has 19 fights, 13 in the UFC.

In addition to an edge in total UFC fights, Gonzaga has also fought for the heavyweight title against Randy Couture and has also fought Mirko Cro Cop in a No. 1 contender match.

Gonzaga gets the edge based on big fight experience.

Edge: Gabriel Gonzaga

Variables

Roy Nelson

For Nelson, this fight is going to come down to what kind of shape he comes in at. The better the shape, the better chance he has of winning the fight. In his last fight, he came in at 246 pounds, 19 less than previous fights.

If he is down to 240 or 235, he's going to be in better shape and definitely have better cardio. That could be the difference for him. Well, that and his iron chin.

Gabriel Gonzaga

Gonzaga will be looking to make a statement in this fight, and that statement will be "I belong in the Octagon." He has a lot to prove in this fight, and a win will secure his place in the UFC for the time being.

If he comes in with a game plan and knows that his best chance is to take the fight to the ground and control Nelson, he should do well. If he decides to test Nelson's chin, that won't go over well.

Prediction

This will be the fight that finally forces Roy Nelson to drop to light heavyweight.

Gonzaga will get him down to the ground repeatedly, and will control him en route to a decision victory.

He may test the waters with Nelson on the feet, but the second he gets hit, look for a shot and look for him to have total control over Nelson.

Prediction: Gabriel Gonzaga by unanimous decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27).

Tim McTiernan is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. For the latest news on everything MMA, follow him on twitter @TimMcTiernan.