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What Should LBJ Do Next? 👑

Kobe Retrospective, Lebron Perspective

Mayoclinic 32Jan 27, 2009

Proponents for Lebron inevitably bring up statistics—his points, his PER, his team's winning percentage—but skimp on the fundamentals of statistical analysis. The only way statistics can paint an complete picture is if we give Kobe and Lebron the exact same teammates, same competition, coaching staff, offensive and defensive system, and have them play in the same era under the same rules, and...you get my point. Otherwise, statistics suffer from systematic bias.

Lebron is currently 24 and at his physical peak, putting up 27.8, 7, and 7. It is the mid-twenties when players put up the gaudiest numbers. Michael averaged 37.1 when he was 24 and put up a 32.5, 8, and 8 season when he was 26. Kobe averaged a mortal 30.0, 7, and 6 when he was 24 and his following seasons saw a drop-off in production. Does this necessarily mean he is an inferior player?

Needless to say, he has yet to reach Michael's level and probably never will. But in Lebron's case, it is Kobe who is looking at Lebron through his rear-view mirror. Numbers don't tell the whole story, and here is why.

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Kobe spent his early to mid-twenties as a secondary option on offense and a primary defensive stopper. He didn't have the offense run through him, as is the case with Michael and Lebron. Rather, he deferred (rightfully so) to Shaq. There is no way anyone, even Michael, could have averaged 32.5, 8, and 8 while playing second fiddle to a completely dominant, MVP center who averaged almost 30, 10, and 3.

However, Kobe showed he could play at a statistically superior level if he were the primary offensive weapon. In the 2002-03 season, he seemed to have no trouble scoring anywhere between 35 and 50 points a night when Phil Jackson established him as the primary go-to guy on offense. This leads me to the conclusion that if Kobe were in Lebron's shoes during those years, with the ball in his hands most of the time, he would have averaged significantly more points and assists.

The following season saw Kobe's career take a turn for the worse. Accused of sexual assault, Kobe was shaken to the core as he confessed to adultery on national TV. He played the entire season under the shadow of possible divorce and life imprisonment and while shuttling to and from court appointments. The psychological effects lasted well into the following season, when the Lakers went through dramatic personnel changes.

Kobe would not recover until he was 27, when he averaged 35.4, 5, and 5. However, once a player reaches his late twenties, his production begins to tail off - even Michael himself never averaged 30 again after turning 31.

These are examples of situational factors that render statistics alone inadequate when comparing players. A more viable way of comparison is to skip the numbers altogether and compare the different facets of their game, from shooting to defense, handles to court vision. Although virtually all analysts would place Kobe ahead of Lebron here, this method is also incomplete.

However, we have one jewel right before our eyes that can cast true insight into how Kobe and Lebron really compare—their experience as teammates during the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing. Playing at the same time, on the same team, eliminates so many of the aforementioned factors that can lead to systematic bias, the only exception being that Kobe was virtually 30 and in the downside of his career, while Lebron was a fresh 23 and ready to attack at any moment.

So, who was the best player of the tournament? Statistics may point to Dwyane Wade, but remember he put up his numbers mainly against the opponents' B-squads, as Wade was not in the starting five. Even so, he may very well have been the best player of the tournament. But, with all due respect to Wade, and Chris Paul, it is obvious to everyone that the discussion boils down to Kobe and Lebron.

And, here is the tale of the tape. Lebron would razzle dazzle for most of the game while Kobe would spend most of his energy on defense, allowing his offense to come to him. Even so, the opposing defenses double teamed him more often. Yet the defining moment came down the stretch of a particular game, namely the gold medal game against Spain.

Spain had cut it to a one-possession game with eight minutes to go, and suddenly, the pressure started to cook like nothing else in USA Basketball history. Lose, and USA Basketball loses everything. Everything. The entire three-year rebuilding and redefining process would be deemed a failure.

With the momentum completely on Spain's side, Team USA called a timeout. There were eight minutes left to validate Team USA's efforts on sports' biggest stage, to erase an eight-year Gold medal drought and a 16-year downward trend in the quality of USA Basketball, to place the United States back on top in the basketball world.

And in this defining moment, it was Kobe, not Lebron, who took the lead and led the team home. He immediately scored a runner in the lane to keep Spain at bay, before penetrating and assisting on a Deron Williams 3-pointer and then a Dwight Howard dunk. Kobe would then knock down a corner three and then a few minutes later complete a four-point play, fouling out Rudy Fernandez in the process. Lebron would then assist Wade on a corner three, one of only two baskets in the final 8 minutes that did not involve Kobe. Kobe would hit another runner after the three that placed the game out of reach. Just as fire tries gold, crunch-time defines leaders and the best of the best.

All in all, I have yet to hear one Hall of Famer say that Lebron is better than Kobe. Rather, I have heard the likes of Magic and Charles say rather matter-of-factly that Kobe occupies the top perch in today's game. Lebron himself knows it, and has said it multiple times. We see a general progression, from Magic and Bird to Jordan to Kobe.

Right now, Kobe is at the center stage, and Lebron is still waiting in the wings for his moment to come. The greats know what defines greatness, and while Lebron has room and time to improve, let's not give him undue praise, as such would be disrespectful to everyone, Lebron included. By letting everything run its course, instead of prematurely trying write storylines, fans can appreciate this game that much more.

What Should LBJ Do Next? 👑

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