College Basketball Rewind 1-26

Written by Chris Canada, Gatorsfirst.com Co-Founder

Now that we are a little more than half way through the 2008-09 college basketball season, we look at where we are right now, as teams are knee deep in their conference schedules. March madness is about six weeks away, and teams have a ton to play for. Remember, there are 65 spots available, comprised of 31 automatic bids to conference champions and 34 at-large bids. Here is a comprehensive look at the major leagues in Division-I (rankings are current AP poll)...
 

From the results that follow, I predict that at this point 60 teams are safe, which includes 31 auto-bids and 29 at-large bids. This means that there are five remaining bids that will go to the "bubble" teams that I have listed. Out of the 60 that I have found, 32 come from major conferences and 28 from minor ones. A lot can change over the next few weeks, and I'll update this list periodically.

SEC (3)

Projected Champion: No. 24 Kentucky (16-4, 5-0)

Should be in: Florida (17-3, 4-1), Tennessee (12-6, 3-1)

Bubble: South Carolina (14-4, 3-2), LSU (15-4, 3-1), Mississippi St. (14-6, 4-1), Arkansas (12-5, 0-4)
 

Analysis: We start off with the SEC, as we should because this is a Gator site! After a slow start, the Kentucky Wildcats have blown through their early SEC schedule. From the looks of it now, I believe that they will take the championship. I hope I'm wrong... This Gators team lives and dies by the three. Even though they should be 18-2 because of that South Carolina game, they haven't shown me that they can be consistent enough to win a title, especially if they play big bodies down low.

Tennessee's schedule has been brutal, and a 12-6 start is OK. As for the rest of the bubble teams, it is very possible that one or two of them make to tourney. If one of the team in the West can clearly stand out, I fully expect them to make the tourney, and LSU may be that team. Arkansas seemed like a lock with two big early season wins over Texas and Oklahoma, but four straight ugly losses have almost sealed their fate.
 

ACC (7)

Projected Champion: No. 5 North Carolina (17-2, 3-2)

Should be in: No. 1 Duke (18-1, 5-0), No. 6 Wake Forest (16-1, 3-1), No. 12 Clemson (17-2, 3-2), Florida St (16-4, 3-2), Miami (14-5, 3-3), Virginia Tech (14-5, 4-1)

Bubble: Boston College (15-6, 3-3), Maryland (13-6, 2-3)

Analysis: I believe this is the best conference in the country, when it comes to top talent. North Carolina, Duke, and Wake Forest all have legit chances to win the tourney, and I think they could beat a whole host of other teams. Clemson is also 17-2 and very dangerous. Other teams like FSU, Miami, and VT can pull "upsets" and make tourney runs, especially Miami who power teams down low and dominate the rebounding edge. BC can make a splash if they can rebound from a couple of losses.
 

Big East (9)

Projected Champion: No. 3 Pittsburgh (18-1, 6-1)

Should be in: No. 8 Marquette (17-2, 6-0), No. 7 Louisville (15-3, 6-0), No. 2 Connecticut (18-1, 7-1), No. 15 Syracuse (17-4, 5-3), West Virginia (14-5, 3-3), No. 21 Villanova (15-4, 3-3), No. 25 Georgetown (12-6, 3-4), Notre Dame (12-6, 3-4)

Bubble: Providence (13-6, 5-2), Cincinnati (13-7, 3-4)

Analysis: The Big East is definitely the toughest conference to play in, because it seems like you are playing a top-25 team every night. Pitt, UConn, and Louisville look to be the teams I see going deep in the tourney. Marquette, Syracuse, WVU, and Nova will definitely make some waves. Georgetown is a conundrum, as they have some really good wins, but have lost 5 of 7. They do have the #1 overall schedule though, so I'll give them a pass. I also don't know what to think of ND who are only 3-4 in conference.
 

Big Ten+1 (4)

Projected Champion: No. 9 Michigan St (16-3, 6-1)

Should be in: No. 19 Illinois (17-3, 5-2), No. 16 Purdue (15-4, 4-2), Minnesota (17-3, 5-3)

Bubble: Penn St (16-5, 5-3), Michigan (14-6, 4-4), Ohio St (13-5, 3-4), Wisconsin (12-7, 3-4)

Analysis: Michigan St seems like the clear class of the league. There are some surprises however, as both Illinois and Minnesota have had a very strong start to the season. Purdue, a preseason top-25 team, has also started off well, and seem poised to make a run in the tourney. A very surprising team to me is Penn St, which is usually a Big-10 doormat. They have started off 16-5, but now face a stretch were they face many of the top Big-10 teams. Michigan started off very well under Coach Beihlin, including a win over No. 1 Duke. But a string of three losses has soured their chances of making the tourney.
 

Big 12 (5)

Projected Champion: No. 4 Oklahoma (19-1, 5-0)

Should be in: Kansas (15-4, 4-0), Missouri (17-3, 4-1), No. 11 Texas (14-4, 3-1), Baylor (15-4, 3-2)

Bubble: Oklahoma St (13-5, 2-2), Texas A&M (15-5, 1-4)

Analysis: Oklahoma is the class of this league. Their one loss (@ Arkansas) seems like an aberration, as they seem to rip through the rest of their opponents. Kansas looks back to top form after losing a lot from last season's championship team. Texas has some good wins and may be able to make it to the second weekend of the tourney. Baylor and Mizzou have shined so far, and have put themselves in a good shape heading down the stretch. A&M started 14-1, but has fizzled during conference play. OK St probably will have to have some major wins to make it.
 

Pac-10 (4)

Projected Champion: No. 17 UCLA (15-4, 5-2)

Should be in: No. 23 Washington (15-4, 6-1), No. 14 Arizona St (16-3, 5-2), California (16-4, 5-2)

Bubble: USC (13-6, 4-3), Stanford (13-4, 3-4)

Analysis: This seems like a down year for the Pac-10. There isn't a clear best team, but I think UCLA has the talent to stay on top. I don't see then reaching their third straight final four though. Washington has been a real surprise (and are the Gators's biggest win so far). Arizona St is also a bit of a surprise under Coach Herb Sendik. Cal has been a surprise at well, and I'll be watching to see if they actually keep it up.

Other Conferences (28)

Projected Champions (threat teams): No. 10 Xavier (17-2, 5-0, Atlantic 10), No. 18 Memphis (16-3, 5-0, Conference USA), No. 13 Butler (18-1, 9-0, Horizon League), Illinois St (17-3, 6-3, Missouri Valley), UNLV (16-4, 4-2, Mountain West), Davidson (16-3, 9-0, Southern), No. 22 St Marys (18-1, 5-0, West Coast), Utah St (19-1, 7-0, Western Athletic)

Projected Champions (non-threat teams): Vermont (America East), E Tennessee St (Atlantic Sun), VMI (Big South), Portland St (Big Sky), VCU (Colonial Athletic), Long Beach St (Big West), Cornell (Ivy League), Siena (MAAC), Buffalo (Mid-American), Morgan St (MEAC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Navy (Patriot League), Stephen F Austin (Southland), North Dakota St (Summit League), Alabama St (SWAC), Ark.-Little Rock (Sunbelt)

Should be in: Dayton (18-2, 4-1, Atlantic 10), BYU (15-4, 3-2, Mountain West), #20 Gonzaga (14-4, 5-0, West Coast)

Bubble: Houston (12-5, 3-1, Conference USA), UCF (13-6, 3-2, Conference USA), Tulsa (13-7, 3-2, Conference USA), UAB (13-7, 3-2, Conference USA), Green Bay (15-6, 7-2, Horizon), Northern Iowa (14-6, 8-1, Missouri Valley), Creighton (15-4, 5-4, Missouri Valley), Boise St (14-5, 5-2, Western Athletic), Utah (12-7, 3-2, Mountain West), TCU (13-7, 4-2, Mountain West), San Diego St (13-5, 3-2, Mountain West), George Mason (14-5, 7-2, Colonial Athletic), Temple (11-7, 3-1, Atlantic 10), St Joseph's (11-7, 4-0, Atlantic 10)

Analysis: From the minor conferences, I have determined that 25 different conference champions and three at-large spots are safe right now. I have broken the champions into two categories: the first will be those that should have a splash at the tourney, and the second are those in traditionally small conferences. The "threat teams" include four team currently ranked in the top-25, including Xavier, Memphis, Butler, and St Marys. The rest of those teams play in tougher conferences (save Davidson).

As for the at-larges, I would think Dayton, BYU, and Gonzaga are good enough to make the tourney without winning their conference. Teams on the bubble are hoping that these teams win their leagues because this is where you usually find your bubble busters year-in and year-out.

Any thoughts?

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