How Does New England Patriots 2012 NFL Draft Strategy Account for Wes Welker?

Stonehenge. Rubik's cubes. The New England Patriots draft strategy.

No matter how long you spend pondering these things, you may never get to the bottom of it. The intense concentration required to think on such levels could produce migraines or even strokes.

While those statements may by hyperbole, there's no exaggeration required to say that the Patriots have created a model for drafting after which many other teams now emulate themselves.

But could that model get a hefty shake-up with the possibility of wide receiver Wes Welker holding out (via ESPN Boston Radio)? And what else will be on the Patriots' mind in the war room?

Wes Welker, The Elephant In The Room: Tiny in Size, Big in Importance

Until recently, Welker handled his contract situation like a pro, avoiding the Randy Moss-style barbs that got the diva shipped out of town.

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I'm not 100 percent sure on that. I don't know if I will or not. I'm thinking I'm probably not going to (attend mandatory workouts), but things could change. We'll just see how it all plays out.

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After signing three wide receivers in free agency, the position isn't one of dire need for the Patriots in 2012. What they could use, however, is long-term stability at receiver. Most of their wide receivers are either on a one- or  two-year deal, at or over the age of 30, inexperienced or unproven, or some combination therein.

If the Patriots lock up Welker long term, he and Brandon Lloyd would pose a solid one-two punch at receiver—but adding another target to develop couldn't hurt.

Rutgers receiver Mohamed Sanu and California receiver Marvin Jones strike me as two receivers with Patriots ties who are good fits for the offense and who could both be available in the second round.

And even with all the additions at receiver, Belichick wouldn't rule out more additions when asked about it at the coaches breakfast in March. Via ESPN Boston:

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You always try to have competition at every position. We’ve always had about that many receivers going to camp—10, 11, somewhere in there—[and] we’ll see what the roster limit ends up being this year. ...There are some guys that I'm sure will be at that position that aren’t even on our team right now, that we’re not even talking about. It’s just a process.

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Trends Suggest Secondary an Early-Round Priority, Offensive Linemen a Late-Round Value

Especially recently, the Patriots value defensive backs high in the draft. They are currently riding a five-year streak of selecting a defensive back in one of the first two rounds, and have selected six total defensive backs in those two rounds since 2007.

Curious, though, is the fact that the Patriots are still searching for answers in the secondary. The depth at cornerback is solid, but carries question marks in terms of health (Ras-I Dowling coming off injured reserve), performance (Devin McCourty got moved to safety) and simply a small sample size of tape (Sterling Moore joined the team midseason and played all over the secondary).

They could feasibly use another first- or second-round pick in the secondary, and not many would even think twice about it. In fact, most would support such a move.

On the other hand, the Patriots love to find late-round value in offensive linemen. In fact, they have drafted 11 offensive linemen in the fourth-through-seventh rounds since 2006. They have really put offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia to work in developing offensive linemen, but have certainly thrown him a few bones in recent years with a first-round selection on left guard Logan Mankins and left tackle Nate Solder, as well as a second-round pick on right tackle Sebastian Vollmer.

Scarnecchia has molded some unheralded prospects into solid NFL linemen: Steve Neal, Dan Koppen, Dan Connolly and others can attest.

Defensive End/Outside Linebacker All About Projection

As the Patriots continue to search for the heirs to Richard Seymour and Willie McGinest, two positions that continually drum up interest are defensive end and outside linebacker.

Every year, fans wonder which players are a good fit for the team and, the truth is, we never truly know until it's too late. Most of the projected five-technique defensive linemen played defensive tackle in college; most of the projected 3-4 outside linebackers played 4-3 defensive end in college.

There are usually a few prospects who fit the mold, and this year's no different. From Boise State defensive end Shea McClellin to Alabama linebacker Courtney Upshaw to USC defensive end Nick Perry, there are enough prospects available that the buzz will permeate through the first few rounds at the very least.

The same goes for the five-techniques—from Michigan State's Jerel Worthy to Penn State's Devon Still to Connecticut's Kendall Reyes, the Patriots could find the athletic presence they're looking for on the defensive line.

Although the Patriots classically haven't targeted pass-rushers early, they did take three defensive linemen in the first round early in the Belichick era: Richard Seymour in 2001, Ty Warren in 2003 and Vince Wilfork in 2004. Since then, though, the Patriots have only drafted one pure defensive lineman in the top three rounds of the draft: Ron Brace.

There's always a chance the Patriots could go back to that philosophy with an early pick, but recent history suggests otherwise.

There's also a chance the Patriots could break tradition and target someone who may not be a "perfect fit," but who can help the team at least in some measure—passing downs, anyone? However, the only pass-rusher drafted high by the Patriots recently was second-round pick Jermaine Cunningham, and the Patriots still haven't seen all of what he has to offer.

The need is certainly there on the defensive front, but whether they take one or not, nothing would surprise me at this point.

My Advice: Build the Team, Don't Collect Talent

It's not as though Bill Belichick needed me to point this out to him; it's already his mantra on draft day.

The Patriots get a lot of criticism for their recent draft misses, but they have made 47 draft picks in the past six years so, of course, they're going to have some misses—maybe even a lot of misses, and some bad ones at that. Those misses have fans clamoring for the team to trade up for a top prospect instead of "settling" for late-round talent.

The draft, by the accounts of several writers—including highly respected ones, like Joe Posnanski of Sports Illustrated—is a crapshoot.

The new rookie wage scale and slotting system makes this year a prime opportunity to trade up for a player the team may covet; the risk of doing so is minimized because the dollars aren't as great.

But the Patriots have become notorious for stockpiling late-round picks to find valuable players who might slip through the cracks. With that in mind, the Patriots have no picks between the fifth and seventh round in 2012, and are also absent their fifth- and sixth-round picks in 2013.

There is a possibility that the Patriots could trade up, but it's just as likely—perhaps even more so—that the Patriots could look to acquire some late-round picks for this year and next year in their attempt to continue the volume approach, thereby searching for value and creating sustainability.

How very Belichickian.

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