UCLA: Realistic Expectations for the Bruins' 2012-13 Season

After nearly three seasons of hand-wringing, remote throwing, and yelling at the TV over their team's foundering play, UCLA fans have suddenly had every reason to leap and shout in recent weeks.

They've seen Shabazz Muhammad, ranked by Rivals as the No. 1 player in the nation, commit on April 11.

Then came center and top-30 Rivals national prospect Tony Parker's announcement two weeks ago that he would attend UCLA next season.

That gave Ben Howland four players in the Rivals100 for his 2012 recruiting class, including two in the top three (Kyle Anderson, a 6'8" guard/forward from New Jersey, is ranked third).

The hype mill went into overdrive almost immediately. UCLA's class, which had drifted around the periphery of the top 10 before Muhammad's and Parker's commitments, has now vaulted to No. 1 on most sites.

This Fab Four, as it were, looks likely to give Howland a team that at the very least should contend for the Pac-12 title.

But some aren't even stopping there.

While Twitter isn't exactly known as the end-all be-all in terms of expert opinion, it is still an excellent source for getting a feel for popular opinion on a certain topic—hence, the whole "trending" phenomenon.

And given how disappointing UCLA has been since that last Final Four run in '08 (second-round tours in '09 and '11 are not what fans expect from the program), it follows that they would jump at the chance of feeling hopeful once more.

Nothing does that like prime-time recruits.

Seth Davis, a college basketball reporter for Sports Illustrated and CBS (he's perhaps best known as one of CBS's main studio analysts during the NCAA tournament) said recently on Twitter that he believes that Howland now has the pieces in place to make another run at the tournament.

Davis stopped far short of endorsing a Final Four bid—his exact wording was that UCLA are "getting better all the time," but he did make the important point that when Howland has elite talent, his teams often do well.

That heralded 2008 class notwithstanding—many of those players did not live up to the hype and within two years, three had either transferred (J'Mison Morgan to Baylor, Drew Gooden to New Mexico), or gone pro (Jrue Holiday after his freshman season)—Howland did lead those talented UCLA sides from '06-08 to three straight Final Fours, a feat only Mike Krzyzewski and Tom Izzo have achieved with Duke and Michigan State, respectively.

From 2006 to 2009, Howland produced six first-round picks. And it was Howland's ability to pair that kind of talent with workmen such as Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Alfred Aboya. It was a nexus that worked wonders.

It took Howland two seasons, once he'd gotten his first recruiting classes in place (the '04 and '05 editions), to make his runs. Does that mean UCLA fans should be expected to wait at least a season before this current crop of blue chippers make their mark?

And will these high-profile players mold into a cohesive unit with the holdover players from last season?

They may not have the time. Shabazz Muhammad is as close to a one-and-done player you're likely to see in college these days, and Kyle Anderson may be hot on his heels out the proverbial "draft" door.

That leaves Tony Parker and Jordan Adams, who, while talented players, would not by themselves be expected to lift UCLA to glory. But that conjecture is to be reserved for the 2013-14 season and beyond.

For 2012-13, UCLA will have three starters back (the Wear twins and Tyler Lamb)—I'm discounting Josh Smith, whose lackadaisical work ethic infuriates me—along with North Carolina transfer Larry Drew, Norman Powell and Anthony Stover.

The Wears are the returning leading scorers—Travis averaged 11.5 points to David's 10.2, and Smith and Lamb are not far behind, with 9.9 and 9.0 points respectively.

The cupboard is certainly not bare, but considering that last season's team finished just 19-14 (11-7 Pac-12) before bowing out in the conference tournament quarterfinals to Arizona, the supporting cast isn't exactly brimming with top-tiered production.

There's talent to be had—Powell has the sort of athleticism that could make him a game changer, and Lamb is renowned as a talented, albeit streaky, scorer—but the freshmen will be counted upon to bring the competitive levels in Westwood up to another level.

Muhammad figures to factor into a wing position, and Anderson may spend some time running the point (he recently underwent surgery to repair torn ligaments in his thumb, and will be out for three months). He'll likely share time with Drew at the point-guard spot.

Parker and Adams figure to come off the bench, but will likely be counted upon to play key minutes. The wide-bodied Georgia big (Parker) will provide much-needed competition for the chronically overweight and lumbering Smith, and Adams will give the Bruins an athletic wing with a reputation for being a sweet shooter out to the three-point line—an area in which UCLA was maddeningly inconsistent last season.

Those Final Four teams from the last decade thrived upon stifling defense and methodical offensive play. These weren't the fun n' gun units from the Steve Lavin era, although they would get out and run when the opportunity arose.

What they were, and this was a marked shift from the Lavin days, was maddeningly consistent. They rattled 30-win seasons off like clockwork (32-7 in 2005-06, 30-6 in 2006-07 and 35-4 in 2007-08.)

Next season's team will certainly have the right athleticism to get up and down the floor. Muhammad is the type of player who can make an immediate impact at the D1 level—look at what Kyrie Irving did for Duke, albeit in limited games, the season before last—and he will have a very good supporting cast that, while young, is accustomed to the limelight from their extensive recruiting process.

Anderson is a proven winner, as is Muhammad. That type of mentality will be a welcome shift at UCLA, which has looked anything but a national power in recent seasons; their only real notoriety coming in the pages of a scathing Sports Illustrated article.

UCLA came across as a team littered with petty individuals. These freshmen appear to be anything but, and they're joining a group of players who look to have shed that inglorious image.

In a nutshell, the 2012-13 Bruins will be a tournament team, barring some full-frontal collapse or rash of injuries. The Sweet 16 is a realistic goal, but I'm not sure that they can be expected to go much further.

Too many questions still abound—who will play point guard, and will either Anderson or Drew be effective enough? Will Muhammad live up to the hype? Can the Wear twins improve upon last season? Can Josh Smith finally make good upon his considerable talent?

If all those answers are checked 'Yes,' it could be a fun Bruins team. But not a Final Four edition.

At least not yet.