2012 NFL Draft: Is Trading Down the Right Move for the Cowboys ?

The Dallas Cowboys are currently the holders of the 14th pick in this week's NFL draft. The consensus is that there are about 10 or so truly elite players. I happen to disagree—and that's why the 14th pick is a bit confusing. It puts the Cowboys in total wait-and-see mode.

Sure, the Cowboys have constructed their draft board, but there could be a number of scenarios in play depending on how the draft unfolds prior to the 14th pick. Like any draft, the prospects are put into categories such as elite status, second tier and first-round bubble players. That's why the Cowboys must be ready for any scenario and be able to determine what they perceive as true value. 

When you look back at the 2009 draft (one that Cowboys fans want to forget) you see Matthew Stafford selected first overall followed by Jason Smith, Tyson Jackson, Aaron Curry, Andre Smith and Darrius Heyward-Bey. Weren't those players considered elite to be selected in the top 10? You can argue that Heyward-Bey was a reach and that Al Davis likes speed, but most mock drafts had those players slotted correctly.

The 14th pick in 2009 was Malcolm Jenkins who happens to be a solid player for the Saints. In that same draft, a lot of talent emerged after the 14th pick. Brian Cushing, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Michael Oher, Clay Matthews and Hakeem Nicks were all selected in the second half of the 2009 draft. Putting aside what the Cowboys failed to accomplish in 2009, it appears there was tremendous value in the latter part of that draft.

That's why trading down is a realistic scenario for the Cowboys.

When the Cowboys enter Thursday night's first round there will still be an element of the unknown surrounding their 14th pick. Mark Barron, Michael Brockers, David DeCastro and Dre Kirkpatrick seem to be the prospects in the mix at that slot, barring any dark horses.

Any of those players would be worthy of the selection—but would selecting one of them in the low 20's while picking up an extra second-round pick be of even greater value?

The bigger question then becomes, is there a team willing to do business with Dallas for the 14th pick? With Ryan Tannehill picking up steam and the possibility of Trent Richardson falling, perhaps teams would be willing to move up to select these offensive players. 

For the Cowboys, a determining factor on whether to trade down will be their perception of the prospects in relation to value. If they come to the conclusion that this year's prospects don't offer the value in the middle of the first round, then they should move down. They might even have to try to move up for a player like Barron if they feel a threat exists should they elect to hold firm at the 14th pick.

Moving up far enough to get a so-called "elite" player is likely out of the Cowboys' price range.

Overall, I think the Cowboys will choose to select their player at the 14th pick and they will get an excellent one. Whether moving down is the right or wrong move, the Cowboys would be smart to at least entertain the idea.

The Cowboys need to go into this draft with guns blazing.

History has shown us that value and productive players exist in every round of the draft. That should be the main focus as they collectively work the war room. The biggest question they need to ask themselves is, do they need to trade down to accomplish these goals?

It's not necessary, but it could become the right move.