WhatIfSports' SuperBowl XLIII Prediction

Super Bowl XLIII Prediction

Steelers' Sixth - BtB predicts a Pittsburgh win by four

By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com

January 21st, 2009

After correctly predicting the winners of four of the last five Super Bowls, going 6-1-3 in the playoffs thus far against the spread, and coming off a year where we had Kansas winning March Madness (as of selection Sunday), the Red Wings taking the Stanley Cup, the Celtics beating the Lakers (in six) and the Phillies taking the World Series, sports simulation website WhatIfSports.com likes the Steelers to defeat the Cardinals by an average score of 20-16.

Included in this feature are an explanation of the analysis, a representative boxscorewith play-by-play, a brief game story related to the boxscore, prop bet odds, stats, stats and more stats from the simulations. If that is not enough, anyone can simulate this game (or the 1972 Dolphins vs. 1985 Bears, etc.) for free by using the SimMatchup feature.

WhatIfSports used its award-winning SimLeague Football simulation engine to "play" the Super Bowl 10,001times. For each game, we make use of as many strength-of-schedule-adjusted statistics from the regular season and playoffs as we can find to determine the likelihood and potential outcome of each play.

With 10,001 games looking at every play and every scenario, this is the most thorough way to analyze any matchup. With the Super Bowl, we are pulling out all the stops, using the results of those simulations to come up with more data than just about anyone could ever use (below).

In short though, Pittsburgh wins 65.1 percent of those 10,001 games. The average score is 20-16, while the most common score is actually 27-13 Steelers. What follows is just one example of the play-by-play of the Super Bowl from those 10,001 games that just so happened to have the exact same score as the average game.

The Game: Super Bowl XLIII
Pittsburgh 20 vs. Arizona 16: A fourth quarter comeback and a long, game-saving drive leads the Pittsburgh Steelers to victory en route to its sixth Super Bowl championship.(click for boxscore)

Not too surprisingly, a Larry Fitzgerald touchdown on Arizona's first possession of the game opens scoring midway through the first quarter. Pittsburgh answers that score with a 51-yard Jeff Reed field goal and an eight-yard Willie Parker TD run on its next two possessions, spanning a total of 117 yards on 16 plays over 9:40 in the late first and early second quarters.

Three drives later, all ending in punts, Ben Roethlisberger is intercepted by Ralph Brown, who returns the ball to the Steelers' 41 with just 2:06 left in the first half. Arizona methodically moves the ball down the field, ultimately getting to the two yard line.

Two stuffed Edgerrin James' runs and a Kurt Warner sack by LaMar Woodley make it 4-and-7. Neil Rackers converts the 24-yard attempt to tie the game, but Arizona enters the locker room at halftime, knowing that it let an opportunity for a crucial touchdown get away.

The third quarter is very quiet until an excellent Steve Breaston punt return puts the Cardinals in position to score again. They get as close as the 16 but have to kick the field goal again. Despite taking the 13-10 lead going into the fourth quarter, Arizona should be ahead by more and has to worry that its inability to convert good field position into scores will hurt the team in the fourth.

Opening the fourth quarter, another outstanding punt return sets up another disappointing Cardinal drive that ends in three points. Arizona has now started with the ball 60 yards or less from the end zone four times and only scored nine points.

Enter the Pittsburgh offense and Roethlisberger's fourth quarter exploits. Understanding they have been very fortunate in the game thus far, the Steelers take the ensuing kickoff and quickly march down the field to score the go-ahead touchdown on a Parker one-yard run just 2:45 later. On the drive, Big Ben completes both of his attempts for a total of 49 yards, including a 35-yard bomb to Santonio Holmes and a screen from the 15 yard line to Hines Ward that he turns into a 14-yard play that gives Parker his chance.

Down one point, 17-16, with 11:51 to go, the Cardinals' offense sputters on two consecutive three-and-outs. Then, with 5:09 remaining, Pittsburgh gets the ball and does not let go. In epic Steelers' fashion, the team runs 4:45 off the clock and forces Arizona to burn all of its timeouts as Pittsburgh moves the ball 50 yards in 11 plays.

A Jeff Reed 33-yard field goal with just 23 seconds to go appears to seal the victory, but the Cardinals would have the last say. After a pooch kick is returned to the Arizona 46 yard line, Warner attempts two Hail Mary's. The second attempt is actually caught along the sideline by Jerheme Urban, but Urban cannot quite break the plane of the end zone, falling just short of the winning score.

Parker's two touchdowns earn him game MVP honors, yet the Steelers' defensive stands on four important Cardinals' possessions are the difference. Warner ends the game with 218 yards and one touchdown on 18-of-31 passing. Roethlisberger's numbers are fairly similar with 217 yards and an interception on 16-of-23 passing. Fitzgerald grabs seven passes, yet is quiet in the second half and only tallies 64 yards to go with his one TD. Ward and Holmes best Fitzgerald's yardage total with 95 and 74 yards respectively.

Overall, Super Bowl XLIII is about what many would expect—a non-descript game where Arizona makes a few spectacular plays on offense, yet Pittsburgh plays smarter, hits harder, and finds a way to win in the end.

Super Bowl MVP - Willie Parker - 23 rushes, 60 yards, 2 TDs (most likely MVP is actually Larry Fitzgerald of Arizona)

Team Stats: Results from 10,001 Super Bowl Simulations

Before we get too deeply into the stats, please note these few items. The difference between the average score and most common score is significant. As you can see, even though the Steelers only win by 3.6 points "on average," there is a significant chance that, when they win, the Steelers win by 14 or more.

The actual likelihood of either team winning the toss is (and should always be) 50 percent; however, over the course of the simulations, the Cardinals win the toss a few more times than the Steelers. L2MinH signifies the likelihood that the team scores in the last two minutes of the first half. L2MinG is the same thing for the end of the game. And yes, we probably spent too much time coming up with a mathematical model to predict the length of Jennifer Hudson's performance of the National Anthem.

 Average Scores After Each Quarter

Team	After 1st Qtr.	After 2nd Qtr.	After 3rd Qtr.	End of Game
Pittsburgh	3.8	10.3	13.8	19.9
Arizona	3.3	8.7	11.6	16.3

 Most Common Scores After Each Quarter

Team	After 1st Qtr.	After 2nd Qtr.	After 3rd Qtr.	End of Game
Pittsburgh	0	10	20	27
Arizona	0	3	10	13

 Miscellaneous Team Percentages

Team	Win Coin Toss	Score First	L2MinH	L2MinG
Pittsburgh	49.77%	55.30%	46.14%	36.55%
Arizona	50.23%	44.70%	36.58%	21.11%

Game Stats: Results from 10,001 Super Bowl Simulations

 Average Game Results

PIT wins by > 7	Total Score > 47	Avg Long Play	Nat'l Anthem
36.71%	14.90%	41.43 Yards	111 Seconds

Player Stats: Results from 10,001 Super Bowl Simulations

 Average QB Results

Player	Team	Comp.%	Yards	TDs	INTs
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	62.68%	228.23	1.28	0.83
Kurt Warner	ARI	56.97%	228.37	1.10	0.87

 Average RB Results

Player	Team	Rush Yards	Rec Yards	Total TDs
Willie Parker	PIT	94.91	2.48	0.69
Mewelde Moore	PIT	15.41	3.92	0.16
Edgerrin James	ARI	40.21	10.55	0.29
Tim Hightower	ARI	15.42	8.49	0.10

 Average WR/TE Results

Player	Team	Rec	Rec Yards	TDs
Hines Ward	PIT	5.09	66.70	0.35
Santonio Holmes	PIT	3.46	59.72	0.34
Heath Miller	PIT	3.29	31.38	0.28
Nate Washington	PIT	2.73	44.32	0.28
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	7.88	110.32	0.49
Anquan Boldin	ARI	4.47	46.74	0.25
Steve Breaston	ARI	2.43	29.78	0.25
Jerheme Urban	ARI	1.35	11.61	0.09

 MVP Likelihood

Player	Team	Pos	% Chance
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	WR	25.6
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	QB	23.6
Willie Parker	PIT	RB	18.3
Kurt Warner	ARI	QB	13.4
Hines Ward	PIT	WR	5.8
Santonio Holmes	PIT	WR	2.5
Edgerrin James	ARI	RB	2.0
James Harrison	PIT	LB	1.9
Nate Washington	PIT	WR	1.3
Anquan Boldin	ARI	WR	1.2
Troy Polamalu	PIT	S	0.8
Karlos Dansby	ARI	LB	0.6
Other			3.0

Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!