2012 NFL Mock Draft: High-Risk, High-Reward Players Who Will Become Stars

In many ways, every NFL draft pick comes with a lot of risk. We can evaluate all the tape we want to, but until these players get on the field we have no idea what they are going to do against the speed and power of the NFL. 

Still, there are some prospects who come with higher risk, either because they are very raw or have character concerns that will keep them from hitting their ceiling. 

We wanted to take a special look at the first round of the draft, with a special analysis on the high-risk, high-reward players that will become superstars. 

1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

The only risk for the Colts is that someone misspells his name on the card during Draft Day. 

2. Washington Redskins (via STL): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Before the season started, Griffin looked like a high-risk, high-reward player. Now, it would be a shock not to see him turn into a star. 

3. Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil, OT, Southern California

Kalil might be the most dominant individual player available in this draft, but his position doesn't come with the same cache that quarterback does. 

4. Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

It is rare to find a running back with the size, speed and hands of Richardson. The Browns need to find a new playmaker in the backfield. 

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU 

Claiborne flew under the radar at LSU thanks to Tyrann Mathieu. I can assure you, that won't happen in the NFL. 

6. St. Louis Rams (via WAS): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

If you like a wide receiver with great hands, route-running ability and underrated speed, Blackmon is the perfect player for you. 

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

No defensive linemen enters the draft with the kind of upside that Coples has. He is a physical monster, with the size and technique off the edge to make an impact right away. 

The red flags come when you look at the way Coples struggled during his final season at North Carolina. He seemed to give up on certain plays, and looked overmatched at other times. 

As long as Coples is motivated to make himself better, which may not have happened last year because of the tenuous situation with the Tar Heels, he is going to be a superstar.

8. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

I want to say Tannehill is going to be a star because I love the physical attributes, but the mentality and lack of experience playing quarterback doesn't give me enough confidence to pull the string. 

9. Carolina Panthers: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis 

Poe eliminated any risk he had when he displayed his physical gifts at the NFL Scouting Combine and put together a very good resume during his time at Memphis. 

10. Buffalo Bills: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

The Bills may be reaching here, but Reiff's size and solid performance at Iowa make him look like at least a starter for a playoff team for the next decade. 

11. Kansas City Chiefs: David DeCastro, OG, Stanford

Arguably the most versatile lineman in the draft, DeCastro will bring back that power-running style the Chiefs need to succeed. 

12. Seattle Seahawks: Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College

With a player like Kuechly, you are drafting him for his ability to lead and instincts. But when you really look at the tape, he has all the makings of a dominant inside linebacker, which is what the Seahawks need to upgrade their young defense. 

Kuechly is not an elite prospect. He doesn't always look like the best player on his own defense, but when he is right, there are few linebackers who will be able to touch him. 

Pete Carroll's foundation will get another stable presence when the Seahawks make Kuechly the No. 12 pick. 

13. Arizona Cardinals: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

If nothing else, Martin will give Kevin Kolb an offensive lineman he can trust to keep him healthy. 

14. Dallas Cowboys: Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina

Gilmore is the player the Cowboys need to fix their often overmatched secondary. 

15. Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Brockers, DT, LSU

Brockers has the upside of Poe, though his workout numbers don't jump off the page at you like the Memphis product's. As long as he can play in the middle of a defensive line, the Eagles will be ecstatic. 

16. New York Jets: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

Floyd could easily end up being the best receiver taken, with size and hands that will make him a red zone nightmare for opposing teams. 

17. Cincinnati Bengals (via OAK): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

The Bengals could take a risk on someone like Janoris Jenkins here, but given the age of their current secondary, they have to go with a stable presence who can be on the field every week. 

18. San Diego Chargers: Melvin Ingram, OLB, South Carolina 

There is no doubt that Ingram is going to be a pass-rushing star. It is just the rest of his game that needs work. 

19. Chicago Bears: Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford

Fleener is going to be the best red zone weapon that Jay Cutler has ever had, including Brandon Marshall.

20. Tennessee Titans: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

Jeffery is in an unusual spot right now. His stock was at its peak right when the college season ended, but inconsistent workout sessions have left him in a state of limbo. 

The Titans can afford to take a risk because they desperately need another playmaker on the outside to go along with Kenny Britt. 

Jeffery boasts a great set of hands, strong route-running and an understanding of the game few receivers in this class can match. Even with all the talk about his fluctuating weight, his talent will lead him to stardom. 

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin

Konz doesn't have the ceiling of a dominant offensive linemen, but he is rock solid and will be a fixture for the Bengals for the next 10 years. 

22. Cleveland Browns (via ATL): Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State

The Browns need Worthy to become at least a serviceable defensive tackle to solve their issues up the middle. 

23. Detroit Lions: Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia

Glenn is not quite as versatile as DeCastro, but his presence on the Lions' offensive line will be huge. 

24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama

The Steelers need to get younger on defense. Upshaw represents their best chance to find the next James Harrison thanks to his combination of size, instincts and hard hitting. 

25. Denver Broncos: Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State

Cox is going to be the second-most important player the Broncos add this offseason. Once they found the right quarterback, the next area they desperately had to fix was defensive tackle. 

Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller are studs on the outside. Cox is the big body they can put in the middle to not only help them play even better but vastly improve their run defense. 

He is very raw right now, but the talent is there for Cox to become a superstar. In a draft filled with high-upside defensive tackles, he could end up being the best. 

26. Houston Texan: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor 

Wright's ceiling doesn't look like anything special. He doesn't run as fast as you would like true No. 1 or 2 receiver, though his hands were better than advertised. 

As long as the Texans can make him a possession/slot receiver, they will be happy. 

27. New England Patriots (via NO): Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

No player in this draft has as much risk-reward payoff as Jenkins. He is a star when he is focused on football, but his penchant for getting into trouble off the field has left him in a state of draft limbo. 

The Patriots have never been afraid to take a chance on a high-risk player. If they are lucky enough to land Jenkins, their secondary will quickly turn into one of the best in the NFL. 

28. Green Bay Packers: Whitney Mercilus, OLB, Illinois

With Clay Matthews manning the inside, the Packers desperately need a pass-rushing outside linebacker for their 3-4 defense. 

29. Baltimore Ravens: Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama

Hightower's injury history gives some concern, but when he is on the field, he is as electric as any linebacker in this draft. 

30. San Francisco 49ers: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech

As far as offensive players go, there are few that come with a higher risk-reward factor than Hill. We all see the size, speed and 29 yards per catch at Georgia Tech, and it is hard not to fall in love. 

The problem is, Hill wasn't asked to do anything except run straight and catch deep passes in an option offense. 

He is incredibly green as far as route-running and being able to read a defense. He could turn into the best deep threat in the NFL at his peak, or a huge bust that we should have seen coming. 

31. New England Patriots: Kendall Reyes, DE, Connecticut

The Patriots still need to focus on the defensive side of the ball with their second pick. Reyes is an underrated defensive end whose speed and strength play well in a 3-4 defensive scheme. 

32. New York Giants: Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

Adams comes with a lot of risk due to inconsistent performance in college and some off-field concerns that led to suspensions, but I don't see him becoming a star. He can be a solid player because he has size and technique, so the Giants should take comfort in that. 

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