Why the San Diego Padres Need To Trade Jake Peavy

Many critics (and fans) of the San Diego Padres have issues with the idea of the Padres unloading their ace pitcher, Jake Peavy, for a handful of players they've never heard of, mostly because fans never want to see their team without a face.

But it is becoming increasingly clear why the Padres need to trade the face of their present: they don't have a future.

On Thursday, Keith Law of Scouts, Inc and ESPN ranked his top 100 prospects in baseball for 2009. While I am in no way saying Law is the gospel of talent evaluation, he is considered a professional expert at ranking such things.

His annual lists are usually littered with names that become known to fans and fantasy players alike by the end of March. Last year saw a kid named Longoria as the top player; he lived up to more than the term "prospect" in October last year.

This year, there are many names of players that have already seen major-league time, like Longoria's teammate David Price and Florida Marlins' outfielder Cameron Maybin.

When reviewing the list, it becomes apparent which teams have traded and drafted well to stockpile youngsters that give their franchises a healthy future. The San Francisco Giants, who already have a pubescent Cy Young award winner, have four players ranked in the top 100, with two of them coming in the top 10.

The rest of the National League's western division has impressive names on the list. The Rockies also have four of the top 100, while the Diamondbacks and Dodgers each have three. This comes with the knowledge that the Dodgers have moved names like Clayton Kershaw, James Loney and Matt Kemp off of recent lists into their major league roster.

So while most of the NL West is well represented, there are the San Diego Padres. They have two, only two. And their highest ranked prospect is at No. 54, a 22-year-old first baseman named Kyle Blanks.

The trouble with Blanks is that the Padres have Adrian Gonzalez at first base. So the team's best prospect has a concrete ceiling, an All Star, keeping him a mid-level prospect until at least 2011.

So the team with the fewest chances of winning the division in 2009 also has the lowest watt bulb pointed at their future.

Enter Jake Peavy, the shining star of the organization.

Of the Padres' established major-league players, only Peavy, Gonzalez, and starting pitcher Chris Young are signed beyond 2009. Gonzalez and Young have club options after 2010 that would cost the team $14 million total; Peavy begins a three-year, $52 million contact extension in 2010 with an option for a fourth year, 2013, at $22 million.

Peavy will be 28 at the end of May. The Padres are, according to ESPN's Ted Bauer, $5 million over their ideal budget for 2009. They have one of the worst rated farm systems in baseball.

Now let's talk about the names being volleyed around from the Chicago Cubs. The headlining prospect, where many uninformed Padres fans have their biggest issue, is 19-year-old third baseman Josh Vitters.

He came in at No. 14 on Law's list. He projects well at the major league level, with needed seasoning—obviously; he's 19—and some work on his plate discipline.

Padres fans will call foul, saying "we already have Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley at third base. We don't need more prospects there." Kouzmanoff will be 28 this year and hit .260 last year with 23 home runs and 84 runs batted in. His OBP didn't break .300. 

Headley, meanwhile, will be 25 and has value as a switch hitter. He is being moved to the outfield, though, because of issues on the defensive end of the field; he may be seen similarly to Milwaukee's Ryan Braun in having enough offensive upside that moving his defensive liabilities to left field keeps him in the lineup.

If Headley stays in the outfield long term, and Kouzmanoff is looking more like Ty Wigginton by the year, where is the reason to not look to add a potential middle-of-the-order bat for the future? And how about if you can add two or three pitchers and a major league-ready middle infielder in Ronny Cedeno? 

The Padres don't have the luxury of overwhelming depth in a division that's getting both younger and better; to the contrary, they're getting older and to say their position players have plateaued might be nice.

When the depth chart is littered with names like Gerut and Hairston, is there really no room for Cedeno? He'll turn 26 the day after the Super Bowl and can play a variety of positions well. Have I mentioned he's affordable?

The Padres need to trade Jake Peavy right now because of two reasons: simple economics and their lack of organizational depth. If they don't have players in-house to compete long term, and they can't afford a player with enormous value, there's an obvious need and a piece that can fill the needs.

I will now qualify why I only refer to a couple players by name, and only the Chicago Cubs as a team. San Diego's General Manager, Kevin Towers, has made himself an island in the trade market. He's written bad contracts and is isolating himself by making worse decisions and taking less advised courses of action in the marketplace.

Peavy has a no-trade clause, but supplied the Padres with a handful of teams he would be willing to waive that clause for if the Padres could move him. Chicago, Houston, St. Louis, Atlanta, and the Dodgers were the five teams named.

Once Towers had his shopping list, he set the bar through the roof in his asking price for the former Cy Young winner.

Towers boasted that he wanted a half dozen prospects, including a bounty of pitching talent, in exchange for Peavy. When he set the baseline price, Houston and St. Louis dropped out of the running almost immediately; neither of those franchises can afford to give up that much talent while taking on the salary of Peavy in this economic environment.

Obviously, the Dodgers weren't going to get much attention from Towers; you can smell the Dodger Dogs from Petco Park.

So it was either the Braves or Cubs.

Towers centered his interest on shortstop Yuniel Escobar in Atlanta, one of the best young middle infield prospects in baseball. When Towers refused to slide on his requirements for a deal to happen even if Escobar was available, Atlanta took back their willingness to negotiate with Chicago.

They traded a handful of very good prospects, including Law's No. 51 prospect catcher Tyler Flowers, to the White Sox for Javier Vazquez.

Again, while I'm not proclaiming Law to be the end-all when it comes to minor league talent evaluation, it is indeed telling that a deal including Flowers wasn't good enough to get Peavy in Towers' eyes, while the Padres top prospect on Law's list came in three spots lower than the catcher.

When Atlanta balked (puns anyone?) at Towers' requests, the corner he painted himself into was red and blue. And Cubs' GM Jim Hendry knew it. Now the Cubs held as many cards at the table as the Padres, and a deal didn't necessarily have to happen on Towers' clock.

Towers went as far as to try to recruit third and fourth teams to make a deal with Chicago happen. He publicly stated that he had interest in Orioles pitcher Garrett Olson, and outlined, through the media, how a three or four team deal could happen.

Hendry didn't bite. Well, not immediately.

Hendry has taken his time in evaluating his own roster and addressing the immediate needs of the Cubs. He moved salary by trading Mark DeRosa to Cleveland and allowing Kerry Wood to leave (also to the Indians).

He also traded for an experienced arm in the bullpen by moving Jose Ceda, a pitcher apparently not good enough to meet Towers' demands, for Florida's Kevin Gregg to bolster the back end of the pen.

But then, a few weeks after most of the Cubs' winter action had subsided and the rumors of Peavy coming to the Cubs had cooled, Hendry threw his Joker on the table.

He traded outfield prospect Felix Pie, who had outlasted his welcome and minor league options, to Baltimore.

For Garrett Olson.

So now, with the identity of the winning bidder to buy the Cubs to be announced in the near future, Hendry appears to have positioned himself at the end of January to perhaps make another run at Peavy.

So while the prospects the Padres might receive might not illicit a roar of excitement from San Diego's fans, it might be all Towers can get at this point. He has forced his own hand, and the consequences might not be appetizing.