Washington Nationals Organizational Talent Thin Says Keith Law

ESPN.com's Keith Law, a former Toronto Blue Jay executive, published his organizational rankings for this season yesterday. If you're a Washington Nationals fan, you'll be disappointed to find out his opinion of the Nats minor league organization, as his opinion differs WILDLY from that of Stan Kasten or Jim Bowden.

29. Washington Nationals: Ross Detwiler and Josh Smoker, two of their top three prospects at this time in 2008, took huge steps backward this past season, and the Nationals' botched negotiations with first-round pick Aaron Crow were just more of the same from Jim Bowden's reign of error. The consistent failure to convert veteran big leaguers into any sort of prospects and questions about their practices in Latin America will leave them stuck down here even if they have a successful draft in 2009.

Yes, that's 29 out of the 30 major league teams. Ouch.

Part two of Law's analysis of the top minor league prospects, published today, carries no better news than yesterday's revelation that he ranked the Nats organization 29 out of the 30 Major League teams with regard to prospect depth. It should serve as no surprise then that just one player in the Nats organization, right-handed pitcher Jordan Zimmermann, cracked Law's Top 100 prospects, at No. 42, no less.

"Zimmermann spent most of his first full pro season in Double-A, good for any recent draftee but even more so for a pitcher out of a Division III school, as he is. He's not a potential ace but a very high-probability No. 3 with a chance to be better than that because of his plus command.

Zimmermann is a classic four-pitch pitcher who changes speeds well and commands his stuff, locating his 90-94 mph four-seamer to all parts of the zone. He also keeps the ball down. His best pitch remains his mid-80s slider, short and tight with good tilt, although his curve is tighter now than it was when he was an amateur. Plus, he turns his changeup over well.

He has good feel for pitching, above-average command and average control."

He does do Washington the favor of listing their top five prospects though:

1. Jordan Zimmermann, RHP (42nd)
2. Michael Burgess, RF
3. Esmailyn Gonzalez, SS
4. Ross Detwiler, LHP
5. Chris Marrero, LF

Zimmermann is also Law's No. 10 RHP prospect. He is the only Nat prospect to make a top 10 positional list as well.

After yesterday's blurb about the team labeling Detwiler and Smoker disappointments for their steps backward, he still has Detwiler listed as the organization's No. 4 prospect. You can question Law's evaluation all you like, but there's no question that he is an independent reviewer for a national publication with a huge audience.

It's pretty well known that Bowden has a history of hyper-inflating players, then blaming them publicly when they don't live up to his over-inflated expectations.  But if you take Law at face value, this is fairly damning evidence that "The Plan (tm)" isn't working as well as Kasten or Bowden hoped that it would.

Just last year Baseball America ranked the Nats' minor league ops at ninth in baseball.  If you account for Detwiler and Smoker's backwards steps being responsible for a fall from ninth to 29th, that's a precipitous fall on the backs of two pitching prospects.

It's troubling as a fan to see that after several years of the major league team being ignored, quality of play deteriorating, the record getting worse, and being promised if the team sticks to the plan and builds through trades and the draft that things will get better, that independent evaluators don't share in the assessment of the talent that has been amassed.

Failing to sign Aaron Crow was a huge mistake. Not only in evaluation of the system, but in terms of signing next year's two top-10 picks.

They'll have to shell out (obviously) No. 1 money for the first pick. Then, whoever they take at 10 will have them over a barrel, since the Nats won't get a compensatory pick if they fail to sign him. Basically, they have to sign two No. 1 overall picks next draft.

Anyone want to take bets on that?

The Q&A's with the front office guys during the Nats caravan and Fan Fest this weekend should be interesting. I know I will be interested to find out what Mr. Kasten and Mr. Bowden think of Law's assessment, and where they think they should rank.