Fedor a Whole New Animal For Seasoned Arlovski

If you’re ever trying to get a solid gauge on what kind of skill set a fighter brings to the table, a ten-year career is a pretty solid sample size. At that point, you pretty much are what you are.

Still, when Andrei Arlovski steps onto the battlefield for the 20th time professionally this Saturday at “Affliction: Day of Reckoning,” the former UFC heavyweight champion may find himself in uncharted waters once the opening bell sounds.

Let’s just ignore the magnitude of the bout or the little mental quips that come with competing against someone of Fedor Emelianenko’s caliber.

We all know it will likely take the best performance of Arlovski’s career to emerge victorious and that his 2008 shellackings of Ben Rothwell and Roy Nelson aren’t enough to prepare him for the problems Emelianenko can pose.

Much has been made about Arlovski extending the olive branch to famed boxing trainer Freddie Roach, who has helped the Belarus native hone his striking game for his past couple fights.

Roach—the same trainer behind Manny Pacquiao’s eight-round destruction of Oscar de la Hoya last December—has been particularly vocal regarding Emelianenko’s standup game, citing the Russian’s boxing and footwork as substandard.

On his feet, a case could be made that Arlovski is the most devastating striker Fedor has ever faced. He’s light on his feet, has legitimate, boxing-caliber punching technique and is as big a threat to alter the tide of a fight with a single strike as there is in MMA.

On the other end, Emelianenko’s standup game may look unorthodox to a professional boxing trainer, but there’s no denying the success the Russian has had in applying his striking style to MMA. Thirty career fights and not once has someone managed to best Fedor on his feet.

One key reason why: power.

Arlovski is the better technical striker of the two, but it’s a recipe for disaster when you mix Andrei’s questionable chin with the two cinder blocks smuggled under Emelianenko’s gloves.

Tim Sylvia said it better than anyone, following his 36-second mauling by Emelianenko last July: “I was amazed at him…I really don’t think he’s human. I thought I was the guy to beat him...I’ve never been hit so hard."

Is it out of the question for Arlovski for stun Fedor with one of those right hands that dropped Sylvia during their first two encounters? Absolutely not.

Emelianenko’s unorthodox striking plays on precise looping hooks and leaves him open to a well-placed counter. If Kazuyuki Fujita can stun Fedor in the middle of a slugging exchange, there’s plenty of reason to believe an established striker like Arlovski can follow suit.

For the time that the action takes place on the feet, I’d be kidding myself if I said I wasn’t concerned with what kind of pace Arlovski will choose to exhibit.

Prior to his first loss to Sylvia, "The Pitbull" of old finished five of his past six fights in the first round and was well on his way to make it 6-for-7 before succumbing to the flash-knockout-to-end-all-flash-knockouts at the hands of Sylvia.

For the ensuing two years, that short Sylvia uppercut loomed in the back of Arlovski’s head in every fight with every punch thrown towards him. As such, Arlovski adopted a more conservative approach to his striking, appearing gun-shy and more concerned about avoiding the big punch than dealing it.

It wasn’t until Arlovski’s “Affliction” debut against Rothwell and a nationally-televised EliteXC contest with Nelson that the championship-form Arlovski reared its head. The question remains of whether or not Arlovski’s resurgence will carry over against someone like Emelianenko, or whether Arlovski will be more concerned about not making a mistake.

It took Arlovski right around one full round to get comfortable and aggressive against Nelson and Rothwell and if Fedor’s performance against Sylvia is any indication, Andrei may not be given that kind of leeway in a feeling out process.

Still, given Arlovski’s much-ballyhooed boxing, it’s only one piece of the puzzle and if Fedor can get inside early on and clinch, it can go a ways to negating Andrei’s strong suit entirely.

If the action is taken to the ground—and barring an Arlovski knockout, I think it’s a strong possibility—we enter the facet of the fight game where few have opted to test Arlovski.

In 19 fights, you’ll notice that Arlovski has never been submitted and for good reason, as you can probably count the number of fights where “The Pitbull” was so much as put on his back on one hand.

Take it one step further and Arlovski’s submission defense is largely untested. In his 14-fight UFC tenure, Andrei had the luxury of competing against a cast of standup-oriented fighters: the Sylvias, Cabbages and Buentellos of the world.

Only once during his UFC run did an opponent so much as attempt a submission on Arlovski: a toe-hold by Marcio “Pe de Pano” Cruz at UFC 66. Even a seasoned Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt like Fabricio Werdum was baited into a 15-minute kickboxing contest with Arlovski.

Emelianenko contains arguably the most well-rounded ground game of any fighter Arlovski will have competed against—from his relentless ground-and-pound to one of the most fluid, seamless arm-bars in all of mixed martial arts.

Rothwell and Nelson were able to put Arlovski on his back and while it took a referee stand up to break things up each time, Emelianenko may be a bit more opportunistic with Arlovski in uncharted waters.

On paper, this fight really doesn’t break much different from the typical pound-for-pound mainstay against the red-hot contender bout, in that outside of maybe one or two areas, there are a million reasons why someone like Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira should beat Frank Mir.

Unfortunately for Nogueira, Mir had a pretty helpful ace up his sleeve with a much-improved striking game.

For Saturday’s fight, on paper, Arlovski’s the better technical striker and you’d be hard-pressed to find another area where “The Pitbull” has a decisive advantage. So what ace will the former UFC champion have up his sleeve?

The Arlovski camp appears to be banking on the training of Freddie Roach to be the grand payoff, but Andrei may need more than an ace—maybe something along the lines of a royal flush—to trump whatever hand Emelianenko may deal.