West Virginia Football: Why Geno Smith Will Win the 2012 Heisman Trophy

Among the 12 Heisman winners since the year 2000, there have been 11 quarterbacks, five seniors, and four players from the Big 12 conference.

Based on these miscellaneous facts, the next winner could be a senior quarterback that happens to play in the Big 12: West Virginia's Geno Smith.

However, Smith does have some work to do if he wants to win the 2012 Heisman Trophy.

Just Win, Baby

Since 2000, 10 Heisman winners' teams had 10 or more regular season wins. That magic number means that West Virginia can't afford more than three losses on its 2012 schedule.

In the 76 years of Heisman history, the trophy has been given five times to a player whose team finished with four losses: Jay Berwanger, 4-4 at Chicago in 1935; Steve Owens, 6-4 at Oklahoma in 1969; George Rogers, 8-4 at South Carolina in 1980; Bo Jackson, 8-4 at Auburn in 1985; and Tim Brown, also 8-4 at Notre Dame in 1987.

The good thing for Geno Smith is that he knows how to win. In his sophomore season, he finished 9-4. His record as a junior was even better—at 10-3— and included a dominating victory over Clemson in the 2012 Orange Bowl.

The Key Games

West Virginia's non-conference schedule is very soft—including the likes of Marshall, James Madison, and Maryland—so Geno Smith will continue his dominance. He has a 5-0 record against Marshall and Maryland in his career, with nine touchdowns compared to one interception. 

West Virginia will have nine games in the Big 12 conference, and should easily take care of four of them: Kansas, Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Baylor. Each of those teams finished in the bottom of the league in defense, making them easy targets for West Virginia's high-powered offense.

The five key games for West Virginia come against the better half of the Big 12, as they will be tested by teams in the preseason top 25: Oklahoma at No. 4, Kansas State at No. 12, TCU at No. 15, Oklahoma State at No. 19, and Texas at No. 22.

Better Your Competition

The first real competition for Geno Smith will be on Oct. 6, 2012, at the Texas Longhorns. In the 2011 season, he had 4,385 yards and averaged 337 yards a game through the air, and in contrast, Texas led the Big 12 defensively by allowing only 315.3 yards a game, and they also allowed the fewest passing yards in the Big 12.

When Smith emerges from this game with a solid stat line and a win, you can bet the Heisman voters will take notice.

On Oct. 20, 2012, West Virginia will host Kansas State and their Heisman candidate quarterback Collin Klein. Klein is a talented dual-threat that passed for 1,918 yards and 13 touchdowns. He was even better on the run, with 1,141 yards rushing and an unbelievable 27 touchdowns.

Klein was also sacked the most—42 times—in the Big 12 last year, so West Virginia will bring a lot of pressure up front and get to Klein early and often, allowing Geno Smith to again prevail as the better player.

The next real test for West Virginia will be when they host TCU on Nov. 3, 2012. TCU only gave up 21.3 points per game last season. Smith will get another shot at a strong defense and will prove doubters wrong.

The very next week, Geno Smith will take on a high-flying, pass-heavy offense at Oklahoma State in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Oklahoma State has one of the worst defenses in the Big 12, so you can bet Smith will put up another win and solid numbers.

The final test—and the key game of the season—will be on Nov. 17, 2012, when West Virginia will host the Oklahoma Sooners, another great defense with an even better Heisman candidate, Landry Jones, at the quarterback position.

The Sooners have a a very opportunistic defense and led the Big 12 in interceptions last year with 24. Geno Smith will be up for the challenge, utilizing his talented receiving duo of Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey.

Utilize Your Talent

Smith will be ecstatic that his two receivers, Austin and Bailey—who both totaled over 1,000 yards receiving last season—will be returning in the 2012 season.

Tavon Austin—at 5'9'' and 175 pounds—is the college football version of the New England Patriot star Wes Welker.

Austin might be in the running for the Heisman himself, as he does a little bit of everything.

He works in the slot and is a breakaway threat each time he touches the ball. He led West Virginia in receptions with 101, was second in receiving yards with 1,186, and had eight touchdowns. In addition, he had 1,206 return yards and two touchdowns, and was even third on the team in rushing yards with 186 and a touchdown.

On the other side, Geno Smith will have the services of his deep threat, Stedman Bailey.

Bailey, who is acrobatic and has huge hands, led West Virginia in receiving yards with 1,279 and in touchdowns with 12 in 2011. He also was a high school teammate of Geno Smith, so the two already had chemistry before coming to West Virginia.

Furthermore,  while Smith does not have the best protection on the offensive line, he makes up for it with his talented crew of receivers and a great offensive-minded coach in Dana Holgorsen.

The Mastermind Coach

Geno Smith had pretty solid numbers across the board in 2010, with 2,763 yards passing and 24 touchdowns, compared to just seven interceptions.

However, in 2011, new head coach Dana Holgorsen—who started in the Big 12 in the year 2000 with Texas Tech as a wide receivers coach—came to Morgantown, West Virginia. He implemented an Airraid offense, which he learned from Texas Tech coach Mike Leach.

Geno Smith reaped great results from this new system, improving in every single passing category. In 2011, Smith almost doubled his passing yardage, threw for seven more touchdowns, and kept his interceptions the same. 

The new offense—designed to confuse opposing defenses by placing multiple backs and receivers in the back field to catch the ball in stride and in open field—is a big reason why both Austin and Bailey are such a threat.

The Airraid offense was on full display during West Virginia's 70-33 blowout victory over Clemson in the 2012 Orange Bowl. Smith tied bowl-game records in that game with the most touchdown passes (six) and total touchdowns (seven). He also had 401 passing yards, breaking NFL Hall of Famer Tom Brady's Orange Bowl record of 396 yards.

The sky is the limit for Smith. With the guidance of Dana Holgorsen, look for him to bring home the 2012 Heisman Trophy.