UFC 145: Rory MacDonald vs Che Mills: Keys to Victory for Each Fighter

Uber-prospect Rory MacDonald will look to take the next step in his career at UFC 145. To do so, the youngster will need to overcome Che Mills, who will seek to halt the MacDonald hype train.

The matchup will go down on April 21 from Atlanta, Ga. 

Both MacDonald and Mills are coming off UFC victories and will look to garner some momentum to carry throughout the 2012 calendar year.

Here, we will take a look at what each fighter must do to pull out a win at UFC 145 by assigning the combatants' three keys to victory.

Rory MacDonald: Keys to Victory

Rory has amassed a 3-1 UFC record; his lone loss a knockout by the hand of interim welterweight champion Carlos Condit. Since that defeat, MacDonald has strung together back-to-back wins over Nate Diaz and Mike Pyle.

Rory's fight against Mills comes after the Canadian had to withdraw from a showdown against the upstart Brian Ebersole in December of 2011.

Most feel that current opponent Che Mills will test "Ares" less than Ebersole may have, but the Brit is not an opponent to take lightly.

That said, this is MacDonald's fight to lose. He holds superiority in every realm the fight may enter and will emerge victorious if he fights to his potential.

MacDonald's Keys to Victory

- Be confident, not arrogant

- Take the path of least resistance

- Just fight 

Rory MacDonald: Be Confident, Not Arrogant

MacDonald's entry in Sportsnet's Ultimate Blogger series exudes self-confidence. That is a good thing. 

But it is a fine line between confident and over-confident. MacDonald must take Mills seriously or risk waking up in a building with tens of thousands of stunned fans.

MacDonald knows that he is the all-around better fighter than Mills. As part of the aforementioned blog post, MacDonald wrote, "I'm fairly certain I'll be better than he is in every single area of this fight."

He adds that "I hold no fear standing toe-to-toe with this guy."

This is a good attitude for Rory to carry into his fight with Mills because he is the more complete fighter and should have no problem trading punches with his opponent.

That said, Mills throws quick strikes, and if Rory is so confident that he decides not to worry about Mills' striking at all, he may end up with loss number two in the books.

To win this fight, MacDonald cannot overlook the danger Che Mills poses. 

Rory MacDonald: Take the Path of Least Resistance

As Rory notes in the Sportsnet blog, he believes that he is better than Mills in every facet of MMA. I tend to agree with him.

The one area where his advantage is debatable is in the striking, which is Mills' most obvious strength. 

Rory could decide to beat Mills at his own game and look for the knockout win, but he has a number of options available to him that Mills does not. He can put Mills against the fence, shoot for a takedown, work ground-and-pound or look for submissions.

The one legitimate danger Rory will encounter in this bout is the punches and kicks of Mills. The best thing he can do to mitigate that risk is to take the fight to the mat.

I imagine the two will exchange on the feet for a time, but MacDonald should look to put Mills on his back before the clock ticks too many times.

From there, Rory can look for a submission, which he will more than likely get.

MacDonald could win this fight by outstriking Mills, but he can make the night a lot easier on himself by looking to stop it with an early submission.

Rory MacDonald: Just Fight

Because Rory has a plethora of ways to win this match, he really just has to show up and fight hard.

His keys to victory are more or less "don't screw up."

One of Rory's greatest assets is the completeness of his game. He is extremely well-rounded and is comfortable wherever a fight flows. 

To win his bout against Mills, MacDonald just needs to do what he is capable of doing and finish the Brit when the chance arises.

Che Mills: Keys to Victory

Mills has compiled a 14-4 career record, having fought in his native UK. His promotional debut in the UFC came in Birmingham, when he defeated Ultimate Fighter veteran Chris Cope by first-round knockout.

Though Mills did all he could to impress in that bout, he will enter his showdown against MacDonald as a decisive underdog. 

There is very little that Mills does as well as MacDonald, the one contentious area being the striking game. If Mills plans on spoiling MacDonald's rise through the welterweight division, he will have to use his quick hands to surprise the young Canadian.

Mills' Keys to Victory

- Aggression

- Takedown defense

- Don't buy into the hype

Che Mills: Aggression

The best chance Mills has to win this fight is by landing a big punch or kick. Failing this avenue to victory, the odds are extremely slim that he beats MacDonald.

MacDonald is a strong guy, and his rag-dolling of Nate Diaz cannot have escaped the notice of Mills, assuming the Brit has studied a little bit of film on his adversary.

We have seen many cases of a striker come out gun-shy and get outstruck because he is scared to be taken down. A prime example of this is the fight between Jake Shields and Yoshihiro Akiyama.

If Mills comes out and fails to let his hands and feet go, he will find that MacDonald is as capable of knocking out an opponent as he is of planting one on his back. 

Over-committing to a strike will mean taking one in return or being taken down. Dangerous? Yes.

But over-committing to takedown defense at the expense of seeking to land strikes will invariably result in a loss for Mills in this fight.

Mills' chances are dependent on his willingness to come out and look to land a big hit at any cost.

Che Mills: Takedown Defense

Despite its seeming contradiction to the last key, takedown defense will be important for Mills. He cannot be too careful against MacDonald, but he must be able to stuff telegraphed shots. 

If Mills is wrestled to the mat while throwing a head-kick, his corner should be able to live with that. But being body-locked, pushed to the fence and slammed is an entirely different story.

For Mills to win this fight, he almost certainly needs to do so via knockout. If he spends the entirety of the contest on his back, the chances of him achieving that are nonexistent. 

Though he cannot be shy in letting his hands go, Mills must ensure that MacDonald can not take him down without risking damage.

Essentially, Mills cannot let MacDonald waltz in and take him down. He has to make him earn it.

Che Mills: Don't Buy into the Hype

If Mills is a fan, as well as a practitioner of MMA, he knows about Rory MacDonald. He knows that MacDonald is a well-rounded finishing machine that is the next big thing in the sport.

I loathe to play fighter psychologist, but the hype surrounding MacDonald must factor into the mindset of Mills entering this fight.

The issue it poses for the Brit is that if he fights cautiously, he will lose. 

As I have preached over the past two slides, Mills' only chance at victory is to strike hard, strike fast and strike often. If he is dazzled by MacDonald's star and takes too long to come out of his shell, this one will be over before it starts.

Che must believe that MacDonald is just another fighter, one that will collapse when hit on the button. He can look to MacDonald's loss to Carlos Condit for inspiration here.

To win this fight, Mills must believe that putting pressure on is the best way to dispel fear or disbelief.

The Bottom Line

As I noted, this is MacDonald's fight to lose. He is the superior fighter in every meaning of the word and should be able to come away with a "W."

For his part, Mills needs to approach this fight like he has nothing to lose. Because he doesn't.

Everyone and their grandmother is expecting MacDonald to wipe the floor with Mills, so the worst position the Brit finds himself in after this fight is the one forecasted for him since the fight was announced.

By coming out swinging, Mills can make the bout entertaining and maximize his chances of pulling out an upset.

Ultimately, the task will likely prove insurmountable for Mills, who will fall victim to MacDonald.

While he has the tools to do it in any number of ways, I see MacDonald taking Mills to the mat after testing him on the feet for a few minutes and locking in a rear-naked choke.