San Diego Padres: Corey Luebke's Contract Solidifies Spot as Future Ace

The San Diego Padres announced on Friday afternoon that they had extended promising left-hander Cory Luebke through the 2017 season.

The contract guarantees Luebke $12 million through the 2015 season, with club options for the 2016 and 2017 seasons.  If the Padres ultimately pick up both options, the 27-year-old will net $27.75 million.

After beginning the 2011 season in the Padres bullpen, Luebke’s swing-and-miss stuff and knack for getting outs merited a move to the starting rotation.  Between both roles, the southpaw posted a 6-10 record with a 3.29 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 3.02 xFIP and a 154/44 K/BB rate over 139.2 innings.

As a reliever, Luebke was more or less a two-pitch pitcher, relying heavily on his low-90s fastball and wipeout slider.  Upon his move to the rotation, though, the left-hander increasingly threw more changeups, which help to neutralize right-handed hitters, while catering to pitcher-friendly Petco Park.

The Padres are showing confidence in Luebke—who registered a 2.4 fWAR in 2011—with such a contract, as they clearly view him as a fixture in their up-and-coming rotation for years to come. 

By the time some of their talented pitching prospects arrive—Casey Kelly, Joe Weiland, Robbie Erlin and Keyvius Sampson—Luebke will be a veteran anchor capable of showing younger players the ropes at the big league level.

Although he profiles as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter headed into the 2012 season, it wouldn’t surprise me if Luebke is the staff ace by 2015—provided that the Padres don’t trade their pitching prospects for a top-notch arm. 

By then, Erlin will likely slide into Luebke’s current role as the key, mid-rotation left-hander, while Kelly, Weiland and Sampson will fill out the rest of the rotation as needed.

As he demonstrated last season, Luebke has both the stuff and poise to be a front-line starter, especially in the National League West.  And with the ongoing development of another above-average offering in his changeup, Luebke should provide exceptional value over the length of his new contract.