UFC TUF Live Finale: Jake Ellenberger vs. Martin Kampmann Breakdown

Georges St-Pierre’s injury is slowly killing the welterweight division.

GSP hasn’t fought since he easily dispatched Jake Shields by unanimous decision back at UFC 129, and subsequent bouts with Carlos Condit and Nick Diaz were called off due to a major knee injury suffered by the champ, leaving the UFC no choice but to create an interim championship bout between Condit and Diaz.

After he won the interim belt, the UFC let Condit make the unpopular choice of waiting until St-Pierre is ready to return before defending his belt, essentially making the interim belt useless and leaving rising contenders like Jake Ellenberger and Martin Kampmann without a chance to reach the championship level.

With the two top dogs in the division either unable or unwilling to put their gold on the line, Ellenberger and Kampmann have been thrown into a title eliminator bout against each other this June, where the winner could easily walk out as next in line for a shot at the eventual bout between St-Pierre and Condit.

Momentum

Jake Ellenberger is on a huge win streak, winning six straight bouts since dropping a close decision to Carlos Condit in his UFC debut, and has looked extremely impressive in his last two wins over top competition in Jake Shields and Diego Sanchez.

With big power in his hands and a high-level wrestling attack, many have singled out Ellenberger as the fighter who has the best chance at upsetting Georges St-Pierre and snatching away the title that GSP has kept in his possession since 2008.

While he isn’t riding quite the streak that Ellenberger is, Martin Kampmann could easily be on a five-fight win streak of his own if it wasn’t for some questionable decision losses to the aforementioned Shields and Sanchez.

In reality, Kampmann has won his last two in a row over Rick Story and Thiago Alves, but his ability to compete with the best in the division has been proven, and he is the only fighter to hold a victory over Condit since “The Natural Born Killer” entered the Octagon in 2009.

Edge: Ellenberger

Striking

If this fight stays on the feet, it has the potential to be seriously entertaining.

Jake Ellenberger has the kind of power that striking coaches dream about, and he’s put four of the last six guys he’s fought to sleep in convincing fashion.

While a lot of other fighters start to fall in love with the knockout after they’ve put a few guys out, Ellenberger has been able to evolve his striking to the point that he doesn’t have to resort to throwing a big right hand over and over again in order to do damage, making him far more dangerous than a lot of the powerful counter strikers in the sport.

Despite Ellenberger’s power and improving technique, Martin Kampmann still has more than enough on the feet to hang with “The Juggernaut,” as he possesses some of the best technical striking in the division.

While Kampmann has had trouble finishing guys on the feet in his UFC career, he’s proven that he has the ability to make the night a living hell for anyone that tries to brawl with him.

Kampmann destroyed Diego Sanchez’s face with pinpoint accuracy during their bout last March, and he was able to go toe to toe with Thiago Alves for much of their fight last month before he got the submission win.

This fight is about as even as it gets on the feet, with Ellenberger holding an edge in the power and finishing-ability departments, while Kampmann takes the prize in technique and experience. 

Edge: Push

Wrestling

The striking is virtually even, but the wrestling advantage goes to Jake Ellenberger in a big way.

The Nebraska native hasn’t shown off his ability to dominate on the mat quite as often as most would expect, but he’s been so successful on the feet that he hasn’t had to take the fight to the mat very often.

Ellenberger scored some solid points with his wrestling during his bout with John Howard back at UFC on Versus 1 in 2010 and was able to take down a strong wrestler in Diego Sanchez in his last fight as well.

Martin Kampmann’s wrestling isn’t bad by any means, and his offense from the top is solid, but he’s going to have a hard time taking Ellenberger to the mat.

In Kampmann’s last fight against Thiago Alves, he tried to close the distance several times in order to secure the takedown, but he was unable to do so and ended up having to fight Alves’ game plan.

It’s common knowledge that wrestling is important due to the better wrestler’s ability to dictate where the fight takes place, and Ellenberger is going to be able take the fight wherever he wants on June 1st.

Edge: Ellenberger

Submissions

Jake Ellenberger is going to be able to take the fight to the ground if he wants to, but he’ll have to be on high alert the entire time he’s down there with Martin Kampmann.

“The Hitman” has finished half of his UFC wins by submission and was able to survive for a solid three rounds on the ground with Jake Shields, who is one of the best jiu-jitsu specialists in the UFC.

Ellenberger hasn’t shown off any submissions in his UFC career, but he did have some serious trouble against submission ace Carlos Eduardo Rocha in the first round of their UFC 126 bout.

Rocha had Ellenberger in a lot of trouble numerous times during the round and seemed reluctant to go back to the mat with his opponent until the end of the next two rounds, when he knew Rocha wouldn’t have time to work off of his back.

Kampmann’s submission game is dangerous at all times, and he could easily catch the aggressive Ellenberger in a deep choke if “The Juggernaut” isn’t careful.

Edge: Kampmann

Prediction

In a fight featuring two of the best welterweights in the world, this one should be a razor-close fight.

Jake Ellenberger has a lot of confidence in his striking, but Martin Kampmann will be the toughest test of his career in that area, and it won’t get any easier for him if he decides to take the fight to the ground.

Expect a bit of a slow start, as both men will take a few moments to try and gauge the timing of the other, but by the second round, this one will be going a million miles an hour and will be nearing Fight of the Night territory.

Kampmann may start to use his technique to gain an advantage on the feet, but Ellenberger’s power is just too big of an advantage to ignore, and eventually, he’ll land a big shot and make his claim for a UFC title shot.

Prediction: Jake Ellenberger by Third-Round TKO