Masters Predictions 2012: Why an Underdog Is Destined to Win at Augusta

Picking the favorites to win the Masters is like picking chalk in an NCAA tournament bracket.

For the first couple of rounds, the big guns are still in the mix, and besides a few Cinderellas on the leaderboard, your bracket looks pretty clean.  

Yet by the time the green jacket is awarded, someone has come out of nowhere to steal the show (unless your name is Woods or Mickelson), and you're left shaking your head at how an underdog once again conquered Augusta.  

Yes, No. 1 seeds get to the Four Final and even win it all, but facts are pretty clear—only once have all four top seeds played in the Final Four.  

Just like the Masters, you have better odds picking the field because only twice in the past 20 years has the top-ranked player in the world won at Augusta, and his name is Tiger Woods. 

So go ahead, pick Tiger to win his fifth green jacket—he is going off at 7/2. But here are five reasons why an underdog will emerge at the Masters this year. 

Note: Official odds courtesy of Bovada.

You Can't Bet Against History

In the past 20 years, the Masters has not been kind to the favorites. Since 1992, only four winners have come from inside the Top 5 in the World Golf Rankings. 

Furthermore, golfers ranked outside the Top 25 have won the green jacket 40 percent of the time, with Angel Cabrera being the highest ranked (69th) in 2009. 

Based on history, Phil Mickelson and John Senden actually have the same shot at winning. Over the last two decades, the player ranked 29th has won twice (Charl Schwartzel and Trevor Immelman), as well as the 15th-ranked golfer (Jose Maria Olazabal and Mickelson, when he won his first). 

Could history repeat itself?  It's up to the golf gods to decide, but if you're rooting for “Lefty,” at least he has history on his side.

Amen Corner

From the downhill approach on No. 11, to the tee-shot against the wind on No. 12, to the drive on the 13th, these three holes offer possibly the most feared shots in golf, come Sunday afternoon.  

This little three-hole stretch has been a thorn in the side of many players over the years. For Tiger Woods, the long, dog-legged, par-four 11th has been his bane.

Since his Masters win in 2005, the four-time winner has played this hole seven-over par, with just one birdie.  

Last year, Nos.11 and 12 ranked as two of the toughest holes on the course, and there are no signs of them playing any easier.

The player that calms his nerves on Sunday and best tames this monster will don the green jacket in Butler Cabin.

Parity in Golf

So, Tiger is the favorite, and he even won a tournament this year. Unfortunately, he is not the dominant win-by-12-shots, blow-the-field-away player he used to be.  

The young guns have arrived: Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Keegan Bradley—not to mention Ricky Fowler and this week’s winner, Hunter Mahan. They all have solidified their spots among golf’s best.

It’s no longer a Tiger vs. Phil storyline. 

If Tiger’s absence from the winner’s circle has done anything, it's allowed other talented players to rise up and strengthen the game of golf. 

Come Thursday, the Masters field will shape up a bit differently than in years past, because no longer is the field playing to beat Tiger—now, Tiger is playing to beat the field. 

International Success

The green jacket has always been kind to internationally born golfers. Gary Player mastered the rolling greens long before the recent success of fellow countryman Charl Schwartzel.  

Jose Maria Olazabal and Bernhard Langer each won two Masters, and Nick Faldo won the green jacket three separate times. 

Even though the Australian Greg Norman never won, he came in second on three occasions. 

In the last 12 years, an international golfer has won at Augusta six times, and three times in the last four years.  

Don’t be surprised if the golfer wearing the green jacket Sunday night doesn’t wave the “red, white and blue.”

The Golden Bear Effect

Twenty-six years ago, Jack Nicklaus made a Sunday charge for the ages. He rallied with a final-round 65, overtaking Greg Norman to win the Masters. Fourty-six years old at the time of his victory, Nicklaus is the oldest golfer ever to win the Masters.  

There is something about Augusta that brings the best out in the crafty veterans. Maybe it’s the calm, picturesque landscape, but more likely, it’s their familiarity with the course, considering the tournament never rotates.  

Kenny Perry just missed the sweet taste of a Masters victory in 2009. Perry was 48, and without two bogeys on the final two holes, he would have been the oldest Masters champion.  

Augusta was also kind to Ben Crenshaw in 1995, when the 43-year-old Texan won his second green jacket.  

So, which golfer has the best chance to turn back time and win at Augusta?

Fred Couples has a green jacket to his name, and along with his consecutive-cut record, the 53-year-old Couples has finished in the top 15 in the past two tournaments.