Masters 2012: Why Tiger Woods Will Come Up Short at Augusta

Temper your expectations for Tiger Woods—one tournament win doesn't mean the Tiger of old is back just yet.

I know that Woods has become the sexy pick to win the tournament and that he is the favorite with oddsmakers this year, but I wouldn't put my money on him.

For one, the distractions haven't really subsided. Between Hank Haney's book and a new porn film with his old mistresses, there has to be a lot still weighing on Tiger's mind.

But as a professional, he should be able to block most of that out. What he can't necessarily block out is how well Rory McIlroy has played this year.

The young golfer has appeared in three PGA tournaments this year and hasn't finished below third place, winning the Honda Classic. And after his meltdown at the Masters last year, you know he wants redemption in the worst way in Augusta this year.

That's why I wouldn't put my money on Tiger—he isn't the best golfer in the world right now. That distinction belongs to McIlroy, at least in my opinion.

There is one thing Woods still has going for him, of course—if he heads into the weekend with a lead, well, you can pretty much forget about catching him. Consider the following, from Justin Ray of ESPN:

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One of the most remarkable statistics that always finds its way into a golf broadcast when Tiger is leading on Sunday is his stellar record when holding a 54-hole lead. Woods is now 49-for-53 winning events where he holds a share of the lead entering Sunday, and 39-for-41 when he holds the lead outright.

But maybe more amazing is Tiger's record when he holds a share of the 36-hole lead. When Woods has a share of the lead entering the weekend in his PGA Tour career, as he did at Bay Hill last week, he has won 34 times in 42 occurrences -- a win percentage of .810. Compare that to his two winningest peers in their careers: Phil Mickelson wins 57.1 percent of the time in those situations (16-for-28), and Vijay Singh has won 52.2 percent of the time (12-for-23).

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I know Tiger always seems to play well at Augusta and that he is heading into the tournament on a high note. But I still think McIlroy is the favorite, and until Tiger proves me otherwise, I'm sticking with the young Irishman who appears to be the future of the sport.


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