The Kentucky Wildcats vs. Charlotte Bobcats Rorschach
The Kentucky Wildcats vs. Wizards/Raptors/Bobcats question gained steam over the week, with Gary Williams and Charles Barkley throwing logs on the fire.
Stat-omatic Kevin Pelton ran some projections of such matchups at Basketball Prospectus. The upshot? Kentucky would not have much of a chance versus Washington or Toronto, but they might put up a fight against the Bobcats:
"Over the 66-game season, we’d expect [Kentucky] to win 1.6 games—though surely there would be times NBA-Kentucky would go 0-66. Most likely, a win would come at the hands of the lowly Charlotte Bobcats. Based on the Wildcats’ projected .024 Pythagorean winning-percentage and the Bobcats’ actual .124 Pythagorean mark, the log5 method says Kentucky would win about one out of seven games head-to-head.
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"So you're tellin' me there's a chance," as was said in Dumb and Dumber. One-in-seven is pretty low odds for Davis and Co., but it's also roughly similar to the odds Atlanta had in their first-round series against Boston in 2008.
Pelton told me that the reaction to his piece was "a bit of a Rorschach test," with many seeing what they wanted in the numbers. Those who believed that Kentucky had a shot (I am among those) found comfort in a projection that gave the Wildcats a puncher's chance at hypothetical glory. Those who thought Kentucky would get run off the court found comfort in a projection that granted them a mere win over the course of a 66-game NBA season.
Since we're dealing with abstract, futuristic scenarios, statistical models can vary. Another article on Basketball Prospectus (subscription) has this to say about the Charlotte-Kentucky battle:
"Assuming Rupp Arena would have an NBA-esque home-court advantage vs. Charlotte, the Wildcats would actually be favored at home against Charlotte, whether facing the Bobcats' horrendous opening-night lineup or the improved group they've sent out recently.
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While there is nothing conclusive to determine a victor here, the best available data demonstrates that it's not crazy to ask the question, as many pro-NBA voices would contend.
