The Liver's NBA Playoff Picks: Conference Semifinals

Sunday, May 6, 2007, 5:37 AM

Medical City Hospital, Dallas, TX

The hot nurse tells me that my heart rate has stabilized. I don't recall asking—or even caring—but it's nice of her to point it out.

Just another weekend that started out with good intentions and ended up in the E.R. What else is new?

Dirk Nowitzki's a soft pussy? If he wins the MVP, he should hand it back to David Stern?

Oh Christ. It wasn't a nightmare.

Seems as though your humble writer, the Liver, went on a post-Game Six binge that would've given Ernest Hemingway and Richard Burton the shakes. I know there were some strippers, and I vaguely recall an incident involving a cello and a step ladder but the only real memory I have is of waking up in my car doing 90 down the wrong way of 635.  

Maybe basketball isn't so great after all. How many days until training camp?

These predictions are straight up. Only Don Imus, Eve, Tony LaRussa, Alec Baldwin, Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, Dirk Nowitzki, Avery Johnson, Don Nelson, and Mark Cuban would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver s picks.

(Team in italics has home court advantage.)

Eastern Conference

Detroit Pistons (1) vs. Chicago Bulls (5)

Both teams are coming off impressive first-round sweeps—and many observers, including yours truly, are calling this series the REAL Eastern Conference Finals.

The Bulls should be high on confidence, having disposed of the defending-champion Heat in short order. That said, Detroit will be a different animal.

The key matchup here will be Luol Deng vs. Tayshaun Prince. Deng took a huge step towards superstardom in the Miami series, averaging 26.3 points per game. Prince, who is one of the better defensive small forwards in the league, will look to make Deng a jump-shooter by limiting his drives to the basket.

If the Pistons try to play Deng small, expect Rasheed Wallace to shoulder some of the responsibility stopping him inside. The Bulls are definitely one of the elite teams in the East but Detroit has been doing this for four years now, and their experience will be the decisive factor here.

Liver's Prediction: Detroit in 6

Cleveland Cavaliers (2) vs. New Jersey Nets (6)

As expected, Cleveland made quick work of the depleted Wizards in the first round, while New Jersey took advantage of an inexperienced Raptors team. 

LeBron James averaged over 30 points a game against the Nets during the regular season. Richard Jefferson won't be able to stop the King—but he can at least slow him down by making James work on defense.

Jason Kidd was a walking triple-double in the Toronto series, averaging 14 points, 10 rebounds, and 13.2 assists a game. If Larry Hughes can't put a significant dent in those numbers, the Nets may be able to upset another top seed.

Don't expect the Cavs to make the same mistakes that doomed them in last year's playoffs. Their biggest liability: .695. That was their free throw percentage during the regular season—which was next to LAST in the league. If these games end up being nail-biters, that kind of performance won t cut it.

Liver s Prediction: Cleveland in 7

Western Conference

Phoenix Suns (2) vs. San Antonio Spurs (3)

At last, the series we've been waiting for—and clearly the REAL Western Conference Finals.  

This one will be all about tempo. Phoenix averaged a league-high 110.2 points a game during the regular season. The Spurs allowed a league-low 90.1. Something's got to give—and until the Suns prove they can play SOME semblance of D, give me the team that knows how to slow it down.

The key matchup will be at the point. Tony Parker has played well against the Suns this season, averaging 28 points in three meetings. Steve Nash may very well be the MVP again—but defense remains his biggest weakness, and the Suns will be in trouble if he can't keep Parker from hitting that teardrop floater in the lane.

Amare Stoudemire and Tim Duncan should cancel each other out; neither one will be able to stop the other without risking foul trouble. Shawn Marion must be a factor, as he so frequently hasn't been when these two teams have met in the past. 

The Suns have the speed and the athletes to win the series.  What they still lack is the defense.

Liver s Prediction: San Antonio in 6

Utah Jazz (4) vs. Golden State Warriors (8)

Ahhh, the Golden State Warriors. Who did they knock off to get here? Slips the mind for some reason...

In any event, the Warriors proved against the Mavericks that they're a hard team to match up with. To be brutally honest, the series could have easily been a sweep.

Baron Davis was a one-Mav wrecking crew, averaging 25 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 5.7 assists a night. Even on one leg in Game Six, he still was a factor.

The Jazz, meanwhile, proved their mettle by winning a Game Seven on the road. Carlos Boozer was outstanding, and it's hard to imagine the Warriors giving him much trouble. Stephen Jackson managed to keep the clamps on Dirk, but Boozer is much tougher inside and has no qualms about drawing the hard foul.

Utah MUST play their traditional grind-it-out offense to keep the Warriors from running them out of the gym.  If Deron Williams can't slow down Baron Davis, look for another Golden State upset. 

The Warriors and Don Nelson have never been known for their defense—but how did they beat the Mavs? With gritty, opportunistic D. I may be going out on a limb here, but having been so impressed with by the attitude and atmosphere in Oracle Arena...

Liver's Prediction: Golden State in 6