Peyton Mannings' Playoff Performance: By the Numbers

A very interesting observation was brought to my attention by a poster here on Bleacher Report.

I recently wrote an article arguing that there is a stronger resemblance between the careers of Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning than there is between those of Manning and Tom Brady.  Most of the posters disagreed, some strongly.

But one poster, a B/R newbie named John Ortiz, put into numerical form the problem that I and many others have with the elder Manning.

Mr. Ortiz fired the opening salvo in a statistical attack on Peyton's postseason performance.

Since some people—for whom I have a good deal of respect—still defend Peyton Manning's place amongst the National Football League quarterback glitterati, I'm gonna follow John's introduction to its conclusion, partly because I want to see if I'm justified, partly because I want to see if I can change anyone's mind.

If you're a Peyton Manning fan, it's probably gonna be a bumpy ride.  Nothing personal.

First, the raw data (more recent games first):

Week			Score	Comp	Att	Yds	TD	INT	Comp. %	NFL and NCAA.')" align="center">  QB Rating
Wild Card	L	@SDG	17-23	25	42	310	1	0	59.5	90.4
Division	L	SDG	24-28	33	48	402	3	2	68.8	97.7
Wild Card	W	KC	23-8	30	38	268	1	3	78.9	71.9
Division	W	@BAL	15-6	15	30	170	0	2	50.0	39.6
AFC-Champ	W	NE	38-34	27	47	349	1	1	57.4	79.1
Super Bowl	W	CHI	29-17	25	38	247	1	1	65.8	81.8
Division	L	PIT	18-21	22	38	290	1	0	57.9	90.9
Wild Card	W	DEN	49-24	27	33	457	4	1	81.8	145.7
Division	L	@NE	3-20	27	42	238	0	1	64.3	69.3
Wild Card	W	DEN	41-10	22	26	377	5	0	84.6	158.3
Division	W	@KC	38-31	22	30	304	3	0	73.3	138.7
AFC-Champ	L	@NE	14-24	23	47	237	1	4	48.9	35.5
Wild Card	L	@NYJ	0-41	14	31	137	0	2	45.2	31.2
Wild Card	L	@MIA	17-23	17	32	194	1	0	53.1	82.0
Division	L	TEN	16-19	19	43	227	0	0	44.2	60.9

The good, bad, and the ugly come together to paint a rather pretty final picture for the 15-game stretch: 4,207 yards on 348 completions in 565 attempts for a 61.6 completion percentage, 22 touchdowns, 17 interceptions, a 7.4 yards per attempt average, and a final QB rating of 84.9.

Like I said, that's a pretty picture except for the record (7-8).

But it's misleading upon closer inspection (this is where John must take some credit as it's something I ignored the first time around).

Check out what happens to Peyton's totals if you remove just the two games against the Denver Broncos:  299 for 506, 3373 yards, 59.1 completion percentage, 13 TDs, 16 INTs, 6.7 yards per attempt, and the QB rating drops to 74.5.

That sounds suspiciously mediocre in 13 games against anyone but Denver.  And the record drops to 5-8.

Let's look at it from a different angle.  Check out what happens if you look just at Manning's road playoff contests:  143 for 254, 1590 yards, 56.3 completion percentage, six TDs, nine INTs, 6.3 yards per attempt, and a QB rating of 68.2 in seven games.

Again, suspiciously mediocre if not downright bad.  And the record is horrible at 2-5.

What does it all mean? Conclusively? Nothing.

But it's heavy circumstantial evidence that Peyton Manning in the most important games isn't even as good as his line would indicate.  Take away a single opponent that seems to match-up very poorly with the Indianapolis Colts' offense and his stat line suffers significantly.

If you take away the security of homefield advantage and a compliant crowd, the numbers get even worse.

Now I'm no stat guy, but Peyton's posse hangs its hat on the numbers because Manning's win-loss record in the postseason is already vulnerable.  In other words, I'm speaking to his supporters in their own language.

And I'm speaking clearly.

But I need to say one last thing regarding the removal of those Denver Bronco games.

I'll openly admit it's weak.  First, it's a hypothetical, which is rarely relevant.  What does 'if' matter when we know what really happened?  Second, it's no coincidence that those two games were Peyton's best.  Since that's the case, shouldn't I remove his two worst games as well?

I removed the Denver games in the hypo because you could argue that they were a result of an inherent vulnerability in the match-up as well as Peyton's excellence.  That seems fatuous on the surface, but look deeper.

If I were just removing outliers, there are three in each direction.  Manning's best three games were against Denver (twice) and the Kansas City Chiefs.  These three are more standard deviations away from the mean than his three worst performances (New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, and New England Patriots).  Furthermore, the population of data points between the worst game outliers and the mean is denser than it is between the best outliers and the mean.  Lastly, the gap between the best outliers and the next data point (138.7 to 97.7) is almost double that between the three worst outliers and the next data point (39.6 to 60.9).

Again, none of that is conclusive and it probably sounds a lot more significant than it really is since the data set is so small.  But it does all indicate that the three best games are more anomalistic than the three worst.  Throw in that two of Peyton's best games were against the same team and only a year apart, and I think the hypo is even more interesting.

Because those special quarterbacks, who belong in the discussion of "best ever," were special because their performance was not dependent on opponent or surroundings.

With everything on the line, they rose to the occasion and found a deeper resolve when facing long odds.  Sure, they had a bad game here or there, but it was without rhyme or reason—just an inexplicable off day.

That doesn't seem to be the case with Manning.

Put him in the playoffs against a team missing 'Denver Broncos' from the jersey or in a hostile environment.  The result is a mediocre quarterback.  That means there's a book on beating him, a blueprint.

Anyone know how to make Joe Montana mediocre with the season on the line?  How about Tom Brady?  What about Steve Young (OK, anyone outside Dallas)?

Peyton Manning is most certainly a great QB and an automatic Hall-of-Famer.  He is almost without doubt the greatest regular season quarterback of all time

He is no better than average in the playoffs.

By numbers or by record.

Until either changes, you simply can't make the argument.

Until the latter changes, you won't convince me.