Bama Hysteria: Is Bama Really Back ?

An astute SEC observer cannot help but notice a prominent trend about BAMA. Year-in and year-out, BAMA has an easy first 2/3rds of the season (even lucked out last year when the supposedly tough opener against Clemson turned out to be a laugher), aiding BAMA to work their way high in the rankings with out any "victories of merit".

This schedule trend, coupled with the historical brand of BAMA football, combine to leave the college football world wondering at the 2/3rds point: Is this year's BAMA team for real, or will it once again be proven not to be.

Over the last five or 10 years, we have seen this played out many times.

But then, the last 1/3 of the season hits, and we find out what BAMA is really made of. Games against rivals Tennessee, LSU and Auburn aid the nation to determine - Is this a legit BAMA, or some of what we have seen so many times?

Coach Saban's first season (2007) at BAMA was not so great, inclusive of a loss to UL-Monroe of all teams. Not even the biggest BAMA homer was delusional enough to claim BAMA was back after that humiliation. Of course, everyone was quick to throw the blame for the poor season on the previous coach's lack of talent. Coach Shula is the problem - Yeah, thats the ticket...

Then 2008 rolls around...

The year starts out amazingly well with the No. 1 recruiting class in the nation. No doubt the class was star-studded, inclusive of major stud Julio Jones, and that gets the BAMA nation back in the saddle claiming louder than even that "BAMA is back!" (Never mind the fact that most teams signed 22-25 players while Saban signed 32...nonetheless, it was a great class).

Next, BAMA storms out of the gate for the first 2/3rds of the season. Only this time, BAMA beats highly-ranked Clemson and humbles supposed national champ contender UGA. As such, heading into the annual Tennessee battle in late October, BAMA is 7-0!

Surely this time BAMA is back without any question at all - right?

Most bought it hook-line-and-sinker. But not everyone did...Those who have seen this play out so many times sat back and said, OK, now let's see if it is real.

In 2008, things seem to really line up in BAMA's favor, so no one is expressing any real doubt at this point of the season. Saban has a tough defense, and a strong offense based on mistake-free Sr QB play, and a strong O-line and running game. Sound familiar?

Next BAMA takes out rival Tennessee 29-9 on the road in Knoxville. Again, more evidence that BAMA is back. Even though most know Tenn is way down, a rival win is a rival win. Especially on the road. Hard to argue with that.

After a laugher against Arkansas State, Saban is set to go to Baton Rouge for a tussle on the Bayou. At this point, most realize that this is not the LSU that teams have seen before. Nonetheless, the road venue and the return of Saban to the Bayou once again justify the narrow escape of an OT win, so once again..."BAMA is back!"

Then, after another easy game against Mississippi State at home, it is time to play arch-rival Auburn. Again, this is viewed as a big test due to the rivalry, so when BAMA pulls this off, folks are rightfully armed with evidence that...yes, you guessed it..."BAMA is back!"

So, in this 2008 scenario, BAMA has not only walked thru the first 2/3rds of the season unscathed, it has navigated the traditionally-daunting last 1/3rd of the season unscathed also.

Alas, BAMA is undefeated and ranked No. 1 in the country. Sure, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn are shadows of their traditional selves in this 2008 season, but everyone ignores that fact altogether. Never mind that BAMA struggled to beat a pretty bad LSU team in this year. It could all be talked away because..."BAMA is back!"

...And then we all know what happened thereafter. Florida and the Utes of Utah are left to do the job normally done by one or more of either Tenn, LSU and/or Auburn over the last seven or eight seasons. The Tide then comes back to earth, and hard.

Yet, many houndstoothers are still hollering loud and proud that the 2008 season proves that..."BAMA is back!"

So the question in 2009 is: "Is BAMA back?"

To the good (from a BAMA perspective), Coach Saban is a process-driven coach, who as a true "football conservative", believes in old school football that is based on 1) strong defense and 2) A strong, steady run-based offense that avoids mistakes and keeps games winnable. His process is a proven formula, so that bodes well for the BAMA nation.

Throw in Saban's recruiting know-how and charisma, and this makes his teams highly likely to be in the top 10 year-in and year-out on the recruiting front. This certainly leads one to conclude that..."BAMA is back!"

So what does a non-BAMA fan objectively say about whether BAMA is back or not?

Truthfully speaking, the answer is very possibly...yes.

However, before everyone in BAMA Nation gets their expectations too high, let's examine 2009.

First, Saban will haul in another strong recruiting class. Thus the program and process-driven Saban machine is building momentum.

Now, let's examine the schedule to see if the trends of the past will repeat once again.

The first thing one needs to notice is that the first 2/3rds of the season include a scary VaTech team and a vastly improved Ole Miss team. One could point to the Clemson and UGA games and say, no problem..."BAMA is back!"

However, an astute observer will realize that unlike the fortune of 2008, BAMA will be breaking in a new QB, not a 10-year Senior, and will be missing one helluva offensive lineman in Andre Smith and RB in Coffee.

As such, it will take a lot of "positive BAMA spirit" (labeled delusion by non-BAMA SEC fans) to repeat such a start.

Then comes that traditional tough last 1/3 stretch. And more questions than certainties come to mind. Will Lane Kiffin have Tenn ready for the trip to Bryant-Denny? How about the traditionally powerful Miles-led LSU team?

How about Auburn? Is there any chance at all of Auburn returning to a tough opponent after the meltdown in 2008?

Truth of the matter, out of the three, LSU appears to be the only team postured to bounce back from the meltdown seasons of BAMA's three biggest rivals in Tenn, LSU and Auburn at the end of the 2009 schedule.

So will folks be able to say "BAMA is back" in 2009?

The odds are against this happening...BUT with Julio Jones, Trent Richardson (assuming he honors his commitment) and a strong Saban-esque defense, a smart person had better assume it is possible that they are indeed back.

Sure, the QB and O-line are a big question marks. Sure, BAMA will likely face a tougher schedule in 2009 than in 2008 (even though at the beginning of 2008 it might not have appeared that way). And sure, teams will be gunning for revenge.

So, once again, is BAMA back?

No one knows for sure. What we do know is that Tenn, LSU and Auburn will never all suck in the same season as they did in 2008, so the last 1/3rd of the BAMA schedule will be tougher in the upcoming years.

What we do know is that they are certainly on the right track from a process and recruiting standpoint.

So is BAMA back? Another thing that is certain is that BAMA Nation will resoundingly say - YES!...and another certainty is that rival fans at Tenn, LSU and Auburn will call them nothing but delusional.

Love them or hate them, you gotta love the SEC!

Bring on 2009 !!!