Louisville vs Michigan State: Why Cardinals Will Knock off West's Top Seed

Michigan State is one of this year's powerhouses in college basketball, but Louisville has all the ingredients to knock off the West's No. 1 seed in the Sweet 16.

The Cardinals have looked much better since they lost four games in a six-game span from February 13 to March 3. They've rattled off six straight wins since then, blasting through the Big East tournament en route to the Sweet 16 and beating teams such as Marquette, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Cinderella hopeful Davidson and underrated New Mexico.

Louisville isn't the high-scoring bunch that generally excites in the NCAA tournament. The Cardinals averaged 68.8 points this season, 155th in the nation, and shot 42.5 percent from the floor (225th).

But what has allowed Louisville to knock off some top teams has been its swarming defense. The Cardinals not only play solid man-to-man defense, Rick Pitino constantly is switching from man coverage to zone. It has frustrated more than a few opponents. The Cardinals are averaging 9.0 steals this season.

Michigan State, of course, is no easy opponent. It's one of the best shooting teams in East Lansing in years, and the Spartans know how to play defense, too. You add their rebounding advantage, complete with star Draymond Green, and you have yourself a well-rounded team.

But I think Michigan State is due for a letdown game.

Anyone who watched the Spartans' win over Saint Louis knows that was not a particularly crisply-played game. The Billikens shot 35 percent from the floor and the Spartans still only won, 65-61.

I think Louisville is playing well enough now to surprise Michigan State. They have a leader in Peyton Siva, a shooter in Kyle Kuric and a post defender in Gorgui Deng who tends to make it hard to score in the paint (3.1 blocks per game).

A Louisville upset has less to do with the quality of Michigan State and more to do with how the Cardinals are playing right now. Louisville's defense alone will make this a tough battle.

When all is said and done, I expect Louisville to move on to the Elite Eight, while Michigan State sits there stunned.

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