Fantasy Baseball 2012: Curtis Granderson-Jacoby Ellsbury Comparison

At this point of spring training, I'm comfortable with my rankings for the Top 40 Outfielders and rankings 41-80. But the listing is not without controversy, particularly the one-on-one battle of Curtis Granderson (No. 4 ranking) vs. Jacoby Ellsbury (No. 5).

Now, I freely acknowledge that Ellsbury (on the heels of a 32-HR breakout) will be taken ahead of Granderson in most roto drafts—Mock Draft Central's Average Draft Position values confirm that.

But am I wrong to think that Granderson will imperceptibly yield more value by season's end? Here's a tale of the tape, citing the stars' last three healthy seasons.

Three-Year Averages

Granderson

101 runs, 142 hits, 22 doubles, 32.6 HRs, 85.6 RBI, 19 steals, .253 batting, .829 OPS

Ellsbury

103 runs, 185 hits, 33 doubles, 16.3 HRs, 70.6 RBI, 53 steals, .301 batting, .809 OPS

Results

Ellsbury wins, 5-3

2011 Production

Granderson

136 runs, 153 hits, 26 doubles, 41 HRs, 119 RBI, 25 steals, .262 batting, .916 OPS

Ellsbury

119 runs, 212 hits, 46 doubles, 32 HRs, 105 RBI, 39 steals, .321 batting, .928 OPS

Results

Ellsbury wins again, 5-3 

2012 Projections 

Granderson

ESPN: 112 runs, 36 HRs, 97 RBI, 20 steals, .241 batting average, .820 OPS
Rotowire: 109 runs, 34 HRs, 94 RBI, 20 steals, .255 batting average, .856 OPS

Ellsbury

ESPN: 105 runs, 24 HRs, 87 RBI, 44 steals, .295 batting average, .833 OPS
Rotowire: 107 runs, 22 HRs, 80 RBI, 43 steals, .308 batting average, .856 OPS

Results

From a five-category perspective, Granderson prevails in runs, homers and RBI. 

Summary

Ellsbury gets the slight nod when factoring in the totality of stats—past, present and future. But this little exercise proves that true fantasy beauty rests in the eye of the beholder.

If Owner A has a preference for reliable power hitters who only need 15-20 steals to legitimize their elite standing, Granderson is the easy pick. If Owner B has a preference for five-category dynamos who may not eclipse 25 homers or 100 RBI, then Ellsbury is the simple choice. In my world, Granderson keeps his No. 4 ranking.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.