Will 2009 Be Yet Another Sebastien Loeb Year?

Since claiming his first driver’s title in 2004, Sebastien Loeb has been an unstoppable force in the World Rally Championship. With 47 wins (21 more than a distant second-place Carlos Sainz), Loeb enters only his seventh full season in the WRC.

Amidst economic turmoil, Subaru and Suzuki have exited the series, one a long-time supporter and the other a rookie entry that resembled Skoda’s operation. With this, Citroen Total showed its commitment to the sport by creating a secondary team, known as a Manufacturer 2 team, which includes former Subaru driver Chris Atkinson.

Even with Atkinson continued participation in the WRC, true competitors to Loeb remain absent. While 2008 saw Mikko Hirvonen compete at his best pace yet, but still it was no match for the speed and consistency that the Citroen driver displays day in and day out.

Ford’s surprise driver was Jan-Laki Attvala, who presented a challenge to Hirvonen as well as Loeb…for the first half of the season. Despite sub-par performance by Citroen number two Dani Sordo, Citroen claimed another manufacturer’s championship due to the Ford driver’s inconsistencies.

So what are we to expect for 2009? Not much different. With fewer drivers in the series, and veterans such as 2003 Champion Petter Solberg and Toni Gardemeister without drives, it is time for the rookies and sophomores to shine. Will they against Seb?

Probably not. Rookie driver Urmo Aava showed plenty of potential and from a voter poll on wrc.com was the most surprising driver of 2008. The Ford M2 driver is hopeful of obtaining podium finishes, but now in the spotlight, his performance is yet to be determined.

With Citroen again presenting the best package, car and driver, it will be hard for Seb not to get a sixth consecutive driver’s title. Ford will be striving to produce a competitive package, and with Mikko Hirvonen, it is very possible…if he consistently finishes rallies.

Citroen-hired driver Chris Atkinson now has the reputation Francois Duval had while at Ford and Citroen for either finishing on the podium or wrecking the car. Unlike Colin McRae, both Atkinson and Duval crash the car far more than they do finish in the points.

It will be up to Mikko Hirvonen to spearhead an attack against the Citroen machine as he has been trying to do since 2007. Back in 2005, I predicted that Hirvonen would be crowned World Champion at the end of the 2008 season.

Until the final three events, it seemed still very likely. Of course then Loeb kicked into gear and took away that pipe dream. Hirvonen has the competitive material and can be a worthy adversary to Loeb in 2009 pending that he is treated as the number one driver, and drives as such.

He has to reduce the amount of mistakes he makes and try to prevent as many mishaps as possible. It is true that he suffered inadvertently towards the end of the season with flat tires that prevented him from holding his place and thus losing out on contending for the championship. Perhaps there ought to be debate about the tires being developed by Pirelli.

I am a firm believer that there ought to be multiple tire providers, the way it was prior to 2007. BF Goodrich presented the best tires possible and they allowed Loeb to narrowly escape with the championship in 2006. Now with Pirelli producing sub-par products, everyone suffers, but why should they?

I am also very much angered by David Richards, the WRC Council, and the FIA on how they utilized their “cost-management” techniques in slashing certain key rallies from the 2009 calendar. The 2009 season enters the first 12-round season since the 1970s, with Monte Carlo, Sweden, and France having been axed.

This is the first time since the establishment of the WRC that these three events are not being run in the WRC, a travesty indeed. The 2009 calendar marks a new era for the WRC, which could in my opinion also mark the downfall of the WRC. This is not just due to the fact that key events were taken off of the calendar, but it shows that the WRC is truly suffering.

This is not something that came about in 2007 when the economic crisis began, but rather years in the making. The WRC has been adding and removing various rallies to test markets, but thus far besides Rally Norway, no new rallies have proved as successful as certain rallies that have been or are being removed.

With ratings the lowest they have been, attendance the lowest it has been, and popularity of the WRC unknown, it is no wonder the WRC ought to be making changes. But are they the right ones? Many will say yes, many will say no, and nobody can know for certain until years from now. What is true though is that the WRC is on a decline never witnessed before and is in need of respiration. Will the 2009 calendar season provide it? Probably not.

With Seb likely to be crowned champion once again, Citroen and Ford possibly battling it out, and a lack of known drivers to pull crowds in, not to mention the calendar being so fudged up, it will be interesting to see the direction the WRC will turn. And 2009 will be the pivotal year for the series, as the FIA will see whether or not the WRC is a viable entity based on the radical changes and competitive scenario.

Will the series get axed? No, but it may allow even more room for the Intercontinental Rally Challenge (IRC) to gain popularity and soon replace the WRC as the WRC replaced the International Championship for Manufacturers in 1973.