Golden State Warriors: What the Andrew Bogut Trade Means for the Warriors

With less than 48 hours until the NBA trade deadline, the Golden State Warriors have agreed to send Monta Ellis, Ekpe Udoh and Kwame Brown’s contract to the Milwaukee Bucks for Andrew Bogut and—gulp—Stephen Jackson.

In this deal, the Warriors finally get a player whom they can call a center (well, when he actually plays anyway), and Stephen Jackson, whose $10 million contract for next season makes Andris Biedrins’ deal look reasonable.

The Warriors wanted to change their defensive mentality, and this trade is a step in that direction. When healthy, Bogut has the tools to be a top defensive center in the NBA and, most importantly, would be a great fit alongside David Lee, who now looks like he will be in Warrior uniform for the long term. With Bogut's defensive abilities paired with Lee’s offensive talent, the Warriors can form one of the best frontlines in franchise history.

The Warriors are also gambling that their training staff can rival the one in Phoenix, because their future now lies in Bogut’s oft-injured everything and Stephen Curry’s glass ankles.

This trade does give an increased role for rookie guard Klay Thompson, and by all indications he is ready for just that. The projected lineup for the start of the 2012 season is now Curry alongside Thompson and Dorell Wright, with Lee and Bogut in the post—a lineup that can be called a traditional lineup.

The Warriors do have to say good-bye to Udoh in this deal, who, in just his second year in the league, was really coming into his own. His loss really depletes their frontcourt depth. Trading Brown’s contract all but ensures that he won’t be brought back next season, which is a plus.

But most importantly in this deal, the Warriors lose Ellis, and you don’t just replace a player like that. That means that this current season is all but done.

Just three games out of the last playoff spot (albeit behind five other teams for that spot), Bogut isn’t likely to make any impact (if at all) this season with a broken ankle. Combined that with Andris Biedrins now being your starting center, and the rest of the year looks grim. If the very loyal Warrior fanbase leaves some seats empty over the course of the rest of the season, I don’t think anyone will blame them.

This trade also takes them out of the free-agent market this summer, and without a first-round pick, meaning they will have to get creative to add some frontcourt depth. A silver lining in this deal, however, is if they end up in the bottom seven of the lottery, the Warriors get to keep their draft pick.

Given that they just traded their best player for someone who isn’t going to play at all this year, and with Curry just an ankle roll from joining Bogut's company, the odds just got a whole lot better that they would end up getting a player in the expected loaded draft class.

This trade really boils down to the fact that the Warriors were willing to take a gamble to ensure that they bring a defensive unit on the floor next season—and they were willing to sacrifice the rest of this season to do it. That, and they are counting on a lot of “ifs.”

“If” Bogut can stay healthy, and “if” Curry can stay healthy, and “if” Klay Thompson is indeed ready for a starting role, and “if” Jackson doesn’t corrupt every young player on the team next season, then deal is a success.

If none of those happen, then it really means the Warriors just took themselves out of playoff contention for years to come.