2012 NFL Mock Draft 1st-Round Update: Surprise Trade-Up for Tannehill?

With each passing week, more and more information pours in with regard to 2012 NFL draft projections. 

Evaluations are refined with more film study, metrics from the combine and pro days are blended with on-field performance and hearsay about character and medical concerns solidifies into credible information as interviews are conducted.

Since my previous first-round commentary and mock, one and two weeks ago respectively, I have made some tweaks to how I see the evening and night of April 26 unfolding.

I have had the Washington Redskins selecting Robert Griffin III second overall throughout the process, so the recent announcement of its accord with the St. Louis Rams does not shake things up at the top for me.

But with any kind of a succession prediction, each alteration produces a ripple effect that goes on to create a substantially different overall picture at the end of the exercise.

The next big event on the National Football League landscape is free agency, which begins today, and will have the biggest singular effect on how the first round is mocked and ultimately unfolds.  It will be interesting and fun to return to the drawing board in a few weeks with those updates.

For now, here is my current projection with eight picks on each slide and brief commentary on several choices per page.

2012 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 1 to 8

1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, Stanford University, quarterback

2. Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin III, Baylor University, quarterback

3. Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil, University of Southern California, left tackle

4. Cleveland Browns: Morris Claiborne, Louisiana State University, cornerback

After losing out on the RG3 sweepstakes, the Browns do not get a qualifying offer to trade out of this slot and stand pat with the best player on its board, who could position it to feature the NFL's best young secondary.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Trent Richardson, University of Alabama, running back

Claiborne is the preferred pick, but if he is gone, new head coach Greg Schiano convinces general manager Mark Dominik to buck conventional positional value and tap potentially the best non-passing skill player in the class.

6. St. Louis Rams: Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State University, wide receiver

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Quinton Coples, University of North Carolina, defensive end

The first senior off the board, I think Coples will bust at this pick, but this kind of profile is similar to what has seduced Gene Smith in previous top-10 blunders.

8. Miami Dolphins: Fletcher Cox, Mississippi State University, defensive tackle

The No. 1 three-technique on my board, premier defensive tackles rarely fall out of the top 10. 

Miami is converting to a 4-3 base this offseason and whether it sticks with Matt Moore or signs a free agent, it will have its situation under center resolved so as to avoid fooling with that position this high in the draft.

2012 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 9 to 16

9. Carolina Panthers: Dontari Poe, University of Memphis, defensive tackle

I think Poe disappoints but does not entirely bust at this pick. 

I previously had him mocked 24th to Pittsburgh, but his combine hyperbole and related physical gifts result in an overdraft.

10. Buffalo Bills: Melvin Ingram, University of South Carolina, defensive lineman/outside linebacker

11. Denver Broncos: Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M University, quarterback

This is the headlining move in this mock draft.  John Elway's commitment to landing Peyton Manning, which I predict will fail, starts Denver down a path (unseating Tim Tebow) from which it does not return. 

It trades up from 25 with the Kansas City Chiefs, also sending its second-round picks in 2012 (57th overall) and 2013 to a division rival.

12. San Diego Chargers: Courtney Upshaw, University of Alabama, outside linebacker

Trading up six spots with the Seattle Seahawks, this move up the board and subsequent selection is another one that I have maintained throughout the pre-free agency mock draft period. 

Upshaw gives San Diego the premier perimeter player it has lacked since Shawne Merriman's prime and that it missed on with the 2009 first-round selection of Larry English.

13. Arizona Cardinals: Riley Reiff, University of Iowa, offensive lineman

Reiff falls a little further than many current and earlier mocks are projecting, but the uncertainty around his ability to stick at left tackle justifies the slight tumble. 

If he does not lock down the blind side, he remains an excellent bet to be well above average at right tackle or either guard spot.

14. Dallas Cowboys: David DeCastro, Stanford University, offensive guard

15. Philadelphia Eagles: Luke Kuechly, Boston College, middle linebacker

16. New York Jets: Mark Barron, University of Alabama, strong safety

2012 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 17 to 24

17. Cincinnati Bengals: Cordy Glenn, University of Georgia, right tackle/guard

18. Seattle Seahawks: Nick Perry, University of Southern California, defensive end

After trading down six spots in the first round with the San Diego Chargers and picking up a second-round choice this year (49th overall) in the deal, Pete Carroll hits up his coaching alma mater for arguably the best pass-rusher in the class, and certainly the most athletic.

19. Chicago Bears: Jonathan Martin, Stanford University, left tackle

Previously, I had mocked Ohio State University left tackle Mike Adams in this spot, but I simply cannot abide him in the first round due to a lack of toughness and overall strength questions.  Martin slides neatly to the Bears here as a byproduct of Riley Reiff previously falling to the Cardinals at 13.

I can hear the groans now out of the Windy City for failing to pair its beloved Bears with University of Notre Dame wide receiver Michael Floyd, but recall that I have Chicago signing a No. 1 wideout in free agency.

20. Tennessee Titans: Kendall Wright, Baylor University, wide receiver

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Doug Martin, Boise State University, running back

22. St. Louis Rams: Devon Still, Penn State University, defensive tackle

After maintaining its ground with the fourth overall pick and selecting LSU corner Morris Claiborne, Holmgren and Heckert will move Cleveland out of this pick. 

This situates the Browns with two choices (33 and 37) early in the second round, the first of which I project will be used on Oklahoma State University quarterback Brandon Weeden.  The Rams also ship their 2012 third pick (66th overall) in the deal.

St. Louis is compelled to make this move to secure one of the top defensive tackles in the class (No. 2 on my board behind Fletcher Cox) after releasing yesterday both of its mid-30s aged incumbent starters from 2011.

23. Detroit Lions: Whitney Mercilus, University of Illinois, defensive end

24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Stephon Gilmore, University of South Carolina, cornerback

2012 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 25 to 32

25. Kansas City Chiefs: Michael Brockers, Louisiana State University, defensive end

General manager Scott Pioli takes advantage of the Broncos' conviction to move up and draft Ryan Tannehill, getting second-round selections this year and next, and adds a polarizing talent along his defensive line in Brockers.

Incumbent defensive end starters Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey, who have both somewhat disappointed after being top-five picks in their own right, will be free-agent or cap-casualty candidates in a year. 

Brockers represents a potential replacement for one of them with some upside that is much more palatable at this stage of the first round.

26. Houston Texans: Michael Floyd, University of Notre Dame, wide receiver

27. New England Patriots: Andre Branch, Clemson University, outside linebacker

The best pass-rusher still on the board, addressing a primary need for this team, Branch should also appeal to Belichick's hybrid defensive schemes with his projected ability to play in space and with his hand on the ground.

28. Green Bay Packers: Kendall Reyes, University of Connecticut, defensive end

Ted Thompson would love a pass-rusher to complement Clay Matthews, but there is not one that makes sense on the board at this spot.

Instead, a player that is starting to creep into the late first round in an increasing number of draft projections, Reyes has the size and penetration skills to be a quality upgrade at one of the five-techniques along the Packers defensive line.

29. Baltimore Ravens: Peter Konz, University of Wisconsin, center/guard

30. San Francisco 49ers: Dre Kirkpatrick, University of Alabama, defensive back

If they do not land one in free agency, a potential No. 1 wide receiver may be a serious consideration at this spot.  There are several potential candidates with this profile: Stephen Hill, Rueben Randle and Alshon Jeffery, none of whom I like this high.

Instead, look for Trent Baalke and Jim Harbaugh to go "best player available" that also qualifies as a perpetual need for all NFL teams in the defensive secondary.

Kirkpatrick is a hot name in certain circles as a cornerback because of his elite height.  I have doubts about his ability in man-coverage and actually think he will move early in his career, if not outright from the start, to free safety.

31. Indianapolis Colts: Coby Fleener, Stanford University, tight end

Another carryover draft trade from my previous mock.  Belichick's propensity to trade out of the first round aligns perfectly with the Colts' new brass targeting Luck's collegiate go-to receiver. 

The Pats pick up the opening selection of this year's fifth round with this move after dropping back three slots.

32. New York Giants: Kelechi Osemele, Iowa State University, guard/tackle

As always, I look forward to your comments below and you may follow me on Twitter at @JeffRoemer.