March Madness 2012: Analyzing Jay Bilas' Bracket

Jay Bilas is known for being a sound college basketball analyst, bringing intelligence and acuity to his analysis.

But, can he pick an NCAA tournament bracket? 

Bilas traditionally makes safe picks, or chalk, on his bracket. This seems sensible, but takes the adventure out of risky, bracket-busting picks. 

March Madness will be wild this year. The tournament is wide open, and nothing is set in stone. 

Did Bilas make the right choices, or will his safe selections bite the dust? 

Let's take a look at Bilas' first-round selections:

For your printable bracket for the 2012 NCAA tournament, click here

Bilas' First-Round Picks

A quick look at Bilas' winners:

South Regional

Kentucky

Duke

Baylor

Indiana

Wichita State

Notre Dame

UCONN

Colorado

West Regional

Michigan State

Missouri

Marquette

Louisville

New Mexico

Murray State

Florida

Saint Louis

East Regional

Syracuse

Ohio State

Florida State

Wisconsin

Vanderbilt 

Cincinnati

Gonzaga 

Kansas State

Midwest Regional

North Carolina

Kansas

Georgetown

Michigan

Creighton

Purdue

N.C. State

California

South Regional: What You Can Take to the Bank

Kentucky will roll over play-in team

The Kentucky Wildcats are an early favorite to win the national title.

A No. 16 seed will not slow the Wildcats down in Round 1. The Wildcats are one of the best defensive teams in the nation thanks in large part to Anthony Davis' freakish length. Their man-to-man defense is not overly aggressive, but they are fundamentally sound across the board.

Offensively, four of Kentucky's five starters average in double figures. The fifth, Marquis Teague, averages 9.8 points per game.

If Teague takes care of the basketball, Kentucky's athleticism is very tough to slow down. The Wildcats are not very deep, but that will not hurt them for, at least, one round. 

Duke will dismantle Lehigh

The Lehigh Mountain Hawks can score the basketball, but their defense does not bode well against the Blue Devils.

Duke scores the ball extremely well, especially behind the arc. If the Mountain Hawks want to keep this close, C.J. McCollum will need to overachieve even by his standards.

Duke gives the same effort season in, and season out. Their stingy defense and electric perimeter play will give them an easy victory in Round 1.

Baylor will prevail

Baylor has a freaky combination of size and athleticism in the frontcourt to go with sharpshooting guards.

South Dakota State does not have that sort of depth, but they do have Nate Wolters. Wolters averages over 20 points per game, and still finds time to drop six dimes per contest. He is an elite player playing for a relatively unknown team. The Jackrabbits go when Wolters goes, and when their perimeter shots are falling.

Baylor’s athletic frontline will cause major problems for the Jackrabbits. Perry Jones III has been much better lately. He, along with Quincy Miller, is a matchup nightmare for any team. If Baylor finds consistency and focus they can beat anyone. The Jackrabbits will keep this one close but Baylor’s size will eventually overwhelm the coolest nickname in the field of 68.

Indiana's tournament return will start on right foot

Fans of college basketball tradition are happy to see the Indiana Hoosiers dancing, once again.

The Hoosiers enjoyed a solid Big Ten campaign because of a balanced offense, and a frustrating man-to-man defense. The Hoosiers are still wet behind the ears, but can be very difficult to beat when they are knocking down outside shots.

Freshman All-American Cody Zeller is a beast down low, and will give New Mexico State fits in the paint.

The Aggies rely on their ability to bang in the post on both ends. Wendell McKines averages a double-double, but Zeller will give him his largest test of the season.

Indiana will need to be careful in this one, but the Aggies will not score enough to keep up with the Hoosiers in their return to the Big Dance.

South Regional: One Upset Bilas Picked Correctly

This is a minor upset, but an upset nonetheless.

Iowa State loves to hoist the three. This season, the Cyclones have attempted the seventh highest amount of three-pointers in the nation. They love to spread out opponents, and use Royce White as the pivot point for their offense. White leads this team in all major statistical categories, and they go as he goes.

The Cyclones have scored big wins over Baylor and Kansas this season because of their ability to shoot the trey.

Connecticut epitomizes the underachiever this season. The defending champs limped their way through the regular season, but should be approached with caution in the postseason.

Jeremy Lamb is one of the nation’s best all-around scorers, and Andre Drummond is a potential dominate presence down low.

This will be a hard fought game with plenty of scoring.

South Regional: Where He Went Wrong

Notre Dame continues their magic

Notre Dame needs every piece of their starting rotation to fill their roles, and play unselfish basketball, to earn a victory.

Xavier needs two players to play their games, Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons, to win.

The Fighting Irish take the air out of the ball, and force opposing teams to take the game possession by possession. Four players average double digits, forcing opponents to guard everyone on the floor.

Xavier loves to run and are at their best when Holloway is able to penetrate and score, or kick to backcourt mate Lyons for an open jumper. Notre Dame needs this game to remain low scoring and low tempo, but Xavier will force the tempo in their favor.

The Buffaloes find a way to win

UNLV did not play well down the stretch this season, but they are a very talented team.

Chase Stanbeck and Mike Moser are two versatile big men who present major matchup problems. Both have a wide range of ways to score, and both are aggressive on the offensive end. Anthony Marshall and Oscar Bellifield are steady hands in the Rebels’ backcourt. Together, these four love to push the tempo on offense.

The Rebels defense must contain a balanced Buffaloes’ attack. Colorado does not have a go-to scorer, but four different players’ average double digits on the season.

UNLV is not a consistent defensive team but they are very dangerous when forcing turnovers. Colorado has a subpar record, and that should show in Round 1.

Wichita State prevails

VCU and Wichita State will provide the ultimate mid-major matchup in Round 1.

VCU went from first-four team to a Final Four team last season while the Rams somehow reloaded, and found their way back to the Big Dance this season. The bad news for the Rams is they must play the best mid-major in this year’s tournament field.

The Wichita State Shockers trio of Joe Ragland, Toure’ Murry and Garrett Stutz have the firepower, and versatility, to stick with anyone. The Shockers are senior laden, and very stingy on the defensive end of the floor, hitting the glass with fervor.

VCU is going to play the Shockers tough. Bradford Burgess is a holdover from last season’s tournament run, and he is a legitimate presence on offense. Freshman Briante Weber is the difference in a VCU upset.

West Regional: What You Can Take to the Bank

Michigan State wins in Round 1

The Long Island-Brooklyn Blackbirds run a frenetic offense that thrives in transition. However, the Spartans are masters at forcing opposing teams to play at their pace.

Expect Michigan State to keep this game in the half-court.

This allows the Spartans to exploit a defense that allowed over 77 points per game. Draymond Green is among the best players in college basketball, and Tom Izzo understands how to get the most out of his players.

NEC Player of the Year Julian Boyd is dominant down low, but Adreian Payne is too physical in the paint. Michigan State's defense is as tough as it gets, and the Blackbirds will find out the hard way. 

Missouri gets the job done

This game will be closer than most people think.

Norfolk State's Kyle O'Quinn can exploit Missouri's lack of depth in the frontcourt. Defensively, the Spartans allow 66 points per game and hold opponents to 29 percent beyond the arc.

Missouri loves to push the tempo on both ends of the floor. They are a perimeter-oriented team with Ricardo Ratliff being the sole provider in the paint.

Norfolk State's perimeter defense along with O'Quinn's offensive abilities will keep this game close, but Missouri's tenacity will become too much for the Spartans to handle. 

Marquette takes care of business

The Marquette Golden Eagles are a force to be reckoned with in the open floor.

They are an extremely fast team led by guard Darius Johnson-Odom, and do-everything player Jae Crowder. The Golden Eagles rely on their transition offense to gain easy looks. Marquette would rather see BYU despite Iona’s questionable tournament resume.

Scott Machado leads the top-scoring offense in the nation for Iona, and the Gaels can make Marquette seem slow at times. BYU plays at a more controlled pace.

Whichever team makes it through the play-in game will have their hands full against the Big East’s No. 2 squad.

Florida controls the tempo

Florida has the talent to stick with any team in the country, but they must find consistency on the defensive end of the floor.

The Gator backcourt of Erving Walker, Kenny Boynton and Bradley Beal can score with any other set of guards. Mike Rosario is a great bench presence, if he is healthy. The Gators ranked ninth in the SEC in scoring defense, this season.

They must change that if they want to realize their potential.

Offensively, Patric Young is the x-factor. He can draw attention to the paint and allow the guards to operate on the outside.

Virginia relies solely on their defense to win games. They led the ACC in scoring defense. The Cavaliers are very thin in their rotation. All-ACC forward Mike Scott must have a huge day for this team to compete.

West Regional: One Upset Bilas Picked Correctly

Memphis is considered too low of a seed by many, but that will not save them against the Billikens.

The St. Louis Billikens are a methodical, half-court team. They must play pesky defense to win basketball games.

The Billikens force turnovers, and have a top ten scoring defense.

Point guard Kwamain Mitchell and forward Brian Conklin provide an underrated inside-out duo for Rick Majerus’ team. Mitchell is a solid floor general, and Conklin is the team’s leading scorer.

The Memphis Tigers improved as the season progressed.

The Billikens may be methodical, but the Tigers rely on an up-tempo pace to utilize their exorbitant amount of athleticism. The Tigers are fifth in the nation in field goal percentage. Led by guard Will Barton, the Tiger offense is extremely efficient in all facets.

The outcome of this game will depend on how fast it is played. Either team is very capable of sending the other home disappointed.

West Regional: Where He Went Wrong

Louisville holds on

The Louisville Cardinals have been up and down throughout the season.

The Cardinals do not have a player to turn to on offense. They rely on point guard Peyton Siva to create easy opportunities for below-average scorers. Louisville must turn in a solid performance defensively, and on the glass, to win basketball games.

Davidson’s five starters all average double figures, but no one jumps out at you. Forward Ben Cohen is the closest they have to a go-to-guy, but who can complain?

The Wildcats are among the best scoring teams in the nation because of the copious amount of shots they jack up. This is a tricky game because of the hot and cold play of the Cardinals, but in the end the Wildcats will prevail. 

New Mexico avoids the upset

Long Beach State is the biggest sleeper in this year’s tournament.

The 49ers are consistent on offense because of experienced, being battle-tested and have a lights-out scorer in point guard Casper Ware, Big West Defensive Player of the Year Larry Anderson and double-double machine T.J. Robinson. The trio gives Long Beach State a realistic shot to crash any team’s party.

Steve Alford’s New Mexico Lobos play an unselfish style on offense surrounding their big man Drew Gordon in the middle. Both teams play consistent defense, but the 49ers full-court pressure creates a multitude of fast-break opportunities. 

Murray State wins

Enter the most aptly named team in this year’s NCAA tournament.

The Murray State Racers are perhaps the most exciting team not many people have gotten to see this season. Leading the Racers is the player most likely to do his best Kemba Walker impression, Isaiah Canaan.

Canaan will score any way you let him, and plays with an incredible amount of heart on both ends of the floor. Canaan is supported by guard Donte Poole and big man Ivan Aska. Both average double figures and are thoroughbreds in the open court.

The Colorado State Rams played a tough regular season schedule, but may be over matched in this game. They play a half-court style, and rely solely on their perimeter attack. Dorian Green and Wes Eikmeier are both big-time scorers in the Rams’ backcourt.

Look for a major upset here. 

East Regional: What You Can Take to the Bank

Syracuse will advance

UNC-Asheville is good in transition, but not as good as the Orange.

The Bulldogs can shoot the basketball, but they are the smallest team in the nation. Their lack of height will not allow them to exploit Syracuse's suspect defensive rebounding.

Syracuse's unselfish offense may hurt them against better teams, but the Orange will run the Bulldogs ragged in Round 1. Their 2-3 zone will force the Bulldogs outside, and they do not have the strong guards to penetrate.

Syracuse will win this game going away.

Ohio State will taste victory

What the Buckeyes lack in depth they make up for in defense.

The Buckeyes allowed less than 60 points per game because of their aggressive man-to-man defense. Point guard Aaron Craft is among the best on-ball defenders in the nation, and everyone else is athletic enough to cause plenty of problems.

Jared Sullinger will have his hands full with Erik Etherly down low, but the Buckeyes supporting cast is much better than anyone the Greyhounds have to offer.

This game will be close for awhile, but the Buckeyes will avoid the scare.

Florida State stays hot

Florida State lives on the defensive end of the floor.

The Seminoles defend all five positions, and rebound extremely well. Their height creates problems on the glass, and their pressure creates turnovers the other way.

The Bonnies will need a huge game from A-10 Player of the Year Andrew Nicholson. He can score from anywhere on the floor, but Nicholson does not have much support around him.

Florida State has their offensive struggles, but Ian Miller and Michael Snaer have improved late in the season. Nicholson is excellent, but Bernard James, Xavier Gibson and Okaro White will neutralize his presence. 

Vanderbilt moves on

Vanderbilt has an obvious advantage in the athleticism department against Harvard.

Harvard relies on balanced scoring contributions and a strong interior presence. Forwards Kyle Casey and Keith Wright ill need big games if the Crimson wish to steal a game from the formidable Commodores.

Vanderbilt has been inconsistent at times this season, but they have a lethal array of offensive players. John Jenkins is an assassin from three-point land. Jeffery Taylor is a great all-around player with solid athleticism, and Festus Ezeli eats up space on the inside.

The Commodores are coming off of a big victory over Kentucky in the SEC Championship game.

Look for their underrated defense to shut down the Crimson offense in Round 1.

East Regional: One Upset Bilas Picked Correctly

Jay Bilas did not pick an upset in this year's East Regional, but the Wisconsin Badgers better be wary.

The Montana Grizzlies must amp up the pace if they wish to upset the Badgers in Round 1.

Wisconsin has the nation’s best scoring defense, and are tops in defending the three-point shot.

Montana has scored 70 or more points 16 times this season, but Big Sky opponents are not the same as Big Ten-caliber competition.

The Badgers will earn a victory if they stay out of foul trouble, and Jordan Taylor takes care of the basketball against pickpocket Will Cherry.

The Grizzlies are scorching hot heading into the tournament, and play some great defense of their own.

Look for the Grizzlies to pull off the upset if they can control the pace and get keys stops. 

East Regional: Where He Went Wrong

Cincinnati will find a way

This is one of the least exciting games in Round 1 this year.

Texas plays six freshmen, and tends to make their youth obvious. Junior guard J’Covan Brown is one of the country’s most underrated scorers, but he does not have much scoring around him.

Cincinnati played extremely well in the Big East tournament, and must continue that level of play if they want to make a deep run into March. Yancy Gates is the sole provider down low. The Bearcats love to spread the floor with four guards and force teams to defend them in space.

Texas will need to create some odd-man opportunities to win this game, but the Bearcats do not turn the ball over often.

Brown will be the difference in a Longhorn upset.

Gonzaga wins in a tight one-

In terms of talent, Gonzaga over matches West Virginia, but the Mountaineers bring toughness to the court every time out.

The Bulldog’s freshman guards, Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell Jr., are excellent.

Bell Jr. is an emerging sharpshooter, and Pangos runs the Zags’ offense with veteran acuity. Elias Harris and Robert Sacre give the Bulldogs a solid frontcourt on both ends of the floor. Harris is the Bulldogs’ best overall player—he can take a game over, if you let him.

The Mountaineers rely on Kevin Jones and Darryl “Truck” Bryant for the bulk of their scoring. Jones is a beast on the glass and has a solid inside-out offensive repertoire.

Gonzaga has been a Cinderella squad for years on end, but this Bulldog squad has the potential to make a tourney run.

The Mountaineers find a way to win this one at the end.

Kansas State avoids the minor upset

Kansas State and Southern Miss will not play a pretty game. Both teams love to grind it out, and win games with their toughness on both ends.

Former Iowa State coach Larry Eustachy plays an eight-man rotation lacking a go-to-guy. The Golden Eagles rely on getting to the free throw line, where they shoot 74 percent as a team.

Kansas State loves to get the ball inside, and outwork opponents on the defensive end. If they need a bucket, Rodney McGruder is the man for the job. He is not a superstar, but he is the closest thing the Wildcats have to star power.

This game will not be for the faint of heart. The winner will be whoever finds space to score.

The Golden Eagles will find a way to do so.

Midwest Regional: What You Can Take to the Bank

North Carolina will roll

Bilas has the Tar Heels defeating either Pat Knight's Lamar squad, or Vermont in Round 1 of the NCAA tournament.

A No. 16 seed has never defeated a No. 1 seed in March, and do not expect that to change this year.

The Tar Heels are peaking at the right time, despite their recent loss to Florida State in the ACC Tournament Championship. Their athleticism, and blue-chip talent, will severely overwhelm whichever squad survives the first-four matchup. 

Creighton will grab a Round 1 victory

The Round 1 matchup between eighth and ninth seeded teams is always worth watching. This year's contest between Creighton and Alabama is no different.

Creighton's high-scoring offense surrounds the three-point shot. The Bluejays are the most efficient offensive team in the country, and sixth in scoring offense.

Alabama is the worst three-point shooting team in the nation, but Jamychal Green is a formidable presence down low.

If Creighton's Gregory Echenique can body up with Green, the Bluejays will get enough stops to win this game.

A second-round matchup between Creighton's Doug McDermott and North Carolina's Harrison Barnes would pit former high school teammates against each other. 

Kansas will send Detroit packing

The Kansas Jayhawks will be tested by Detroit's balanced offensive attack, but Goliath will prevail in this matchup.

The Titans' defense is questionable.

They were third in blocked shots in the Horizon League, but that will not be enough to slow down Thomas Robinson down low. Four of Detroit's starters average in double figures, but the Jayhawks are an excellent defensive squad.

Look for Tyshawn Taylor to continue his hot play against the red-hot Titans, and take his Jayhawk team to victory. Bilas went chalk here, and with good reason.

Michigan advances into the first weekend

Michigan's offense will overwhelm an underwhelming Ohio Bobcat offense in this Round 1 matchup.

The Wolverines spread the floor with four guards and shoot the outside shot extremely well. Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. are the two best players on the floor, but they must be wary of a Bobcat defense averaging almost ten steals per game.

The Bobcat offense is very balanced, but no player jumps out as a go-to-guy. Michigan averages eight three pointers per game.

This will be the difference.

Midwest Regional: One Upset Bilas Picked Correctly

Jay Bilas likes the Cal Bears to knock off the fifth-seeded Temple Owls in Round 1.

This is why Bilas gets paid a pretty penny to do his job. 

Cal does not terrorize opponents with a high-octane offense, but their backcourt locks opposing guards down defensively. Led by PAC-12 Defensive Player of the Year Jorge Gutierrez, Cal excels at pressuring the ball and forcing opponents into bad shots. 

The Owls are led by their three guards, Juan Fernandez, Ramone Moore and Khalif Wyatt. Wyatt and Moore are both big-time scorers, while Fernandez is the unquestioned emotional leader for this Temple squad. 

The Bears cannot afford to get into a shootout with the Owls. Their backcourt must use their length to shut down the Owls' backcourt, and they will. 

Cal is a veteran team. They lack a marquee scorer, but four of five starters average double figures. 

The Bears pull off the upset with a balanced attack, and stingy perimeter defense. 

Midwest Regional: Where He Went Wrong

Georgetown will avoid the upset

Jay Bilas has the Hoyas defeating Belmont and moving on to the Round of 32.

As ESPN college football analyst Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast, my friends."

Belmont shoots 38% as a team from beyond the arc. The Bruins are fourth in the nation in scoring, and are battle-tested.

he Hoyas are a Top 20 defense, but their offense lacks explosive players. Hollis Thompson and Jason Clark are capable, but Belmont's defense is underrated. Belmont will out-rebound the Hoyas, and Drew Hanlen will play hero.

The Bruins score an upset to send the Hoyas packing earlier than expected.

Purdue wins in Round 1

Jay Bilas likes Purdue to upset mid-major Saint Mary's in Round 1.

This is a minor upset, but an upset nonetheless.

Bilas will need to readjust his bracket after the Gaels grab a victory over the tenth-seeded Boilermakers. The Gaels held their opponents under 65 points per game this season. They play tenacious man-to-man defense, and Purdue does not have the athleticism to exploit any cracks.

Gaels' point guard Matthew Dellavedova is extremely underrated. Purdue's defense is very aggressive, but Dellavedova is an exceptional creator in the half court. Robbie Hummel is finally healthy for a Boilermaker tournament game, but his team will fall despite his best efforts. 

N.C. State scores the upset

The Aztecs have tournament experience and are very well-coached under Steve Fisher while N.C. State found their way into the tournament, but the magic will end early for the Wolfpack.

Bilas likes the Wolfpack to defeat the Aztecs.

San Diego State is not the same team from a year ago, but their toughness on both ends of the court is the same. Chase Tapley and Jamal Franklin are underrated scorers. Both can shoot the ball, or exploit N.C.State's suspect man-to-man defense off the dribble.

The Wolfpack's offense is very balanced, but the Aztecs have the length and athleticism to counter any matchup problems N.C. State may present.

This game will go down to the wire, but the Aztecs will grab one victory this year.