SEC Tournament 2012: Surefire Locks in First-Round Games

The SEC Tournament begins on Thursday. Theoretically, any team has a chance to win it. Realistically, the tournament is merely a competition to see who gets to lose to Kentucky.

But the final is still a couple days away, and there are quite a few games that need to be played between now and then. Kentucky's inevitable SEC championship will have to wait.

There are four games on the docket for the first round of the tournament. Here are picks for each one of them.

Note: all spreads according to Sportsbook.

No. 8 LSU (-2.5) vs. No. 9 Arkansas 

Time: 1:00 p.m. EST

TV: SEC Network

The Tigers and Razorbacks split their two regular season meetings, with LSU beating Arkansas at home and Arkansas beating LSU at home. 

The key difference in LSU's loss was the fact that the Tigers simply couldn't buy a bucket. They are not one of the nation's most efficient offensive teams, but they're certainly capable of shooting a lot better than 34.8 percent from the field, as they did in their loss to Arkansas.

Second-chance points will be key. LSU is an above-average offensive rebounding team, and the Tigers will do themselves a huge favor by picking up some easy buckets off offensive rebounds.

Arkansas is not an elite rebounding team, so that edge should be enough to tilt this one in favor of the Tigers.

LSU by six.

No. 5 Alabama (-9) vs. No. 12 South Carolina 

Time: 3:30 p.m. EST

TV: SEC Network

South Carolina managed to steal a win against Alabama in late January, one of its two conference wins all season.

The Crimson Tide deserves a pass for losing that game. It came during a stretch when Alabama couldn't do anything right, and the Tide righted the ship soon after it. Alabama won seven of its last 10 games.

Just like with the school's football program, the Tide's defense will lead the way. Per TeamRankings.com, Alabama finished ninth in the nation in opponents' points per game, and 14th in opponents' shooting percentage. The Tide's swarming defense will spell trouble for a South Carolina team that does not excel on the offensive end of the floor.

Alabama will take this one easily.

Alabama by 11.

No. 7 Ole Miss (-4) vs. No. 10 Auburn 

Time: 7:30 p.m. EST

TV: SEC Network

Ole Miss and Auburn played two fun games in the regular season. Their first meeting in January went to double-overtime, and the second saw Ole Miss run away with the game with a dominant showing in the second half. 

The key in that second game was the Rebels' ability to get to the free-throw line. Forcing fouls was one of their main strengths during the regular season, and they're going to have to get to the line some more to gain an edge on Auburn.

I'll put it this way. In that second game, Ole Miss took 15 more free throws than Auburn, and made seven more free throws. The Rebels won by exactly seven points.

In the first game, Ole Miss took just 15 free throws the entire game, which needed two overtimes.

If the Rebels get to the line, they'll win. But alas, it's going to be too close for comfort.

Ole Miss by two.

No. 6 Mississippi State (-4.5) vs. No. 11 Georgia

Time: 10:00 p.m. EST

TV: SEC Network

Mississippi State couldn't put Georgia away in their one and only regular season meeting, losing at home in overtime by the final of 70-68.

That started a rough stretch of games for the Bulldogs, as they lost that game and then went on to lose four more in a row. They didn't snap out of it until the end of the season, as they won their final two games.

I'm skeptical about Georgia's win in the first game. The Bulldogs (the Georgia variety) took way more threes than they usually take, and they got a huge boost from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He made six threes, including the game-winner.

Three-point shooting is not one of Georgia's strengths. If the Bulldogs come back down to earth from beyond the arc, Mississippi State will win this game. 

Mississippi State by six.

Complete SEC Tournament schedule and bracket guide