Peyton Manning Released: How It Could Cause Andrew Luck to Underperform

During the next month and a half, a lot of hay will be made of Andrew Luck's lack of elite arm strength, occasional mechanical flaws and just about anything else we can pick apart on film.

The blind spot in all of this analysis is that the biggest bust risk for Luck has nothing to do with his game, and everything to do with what is in the minds of millions of football fans. No one player has ever come into the league with expectations as high as those that will follow Luck into the NFL.

Anticipation... It's Making Me Crazy

No quarterback's arrival has been this highly anticipating since Eli Manning, and no quarterback has been this highly rated by the draft world since his big brother Peyton. Luck was considered the presumptive No. 1 overall pick in last year's draft and it has been assumed from day one that he would be the No. 1 overall pick this year. The instant-gratification sports world is not going to be patient while Luck works out the kinks.

The Scapegoat

The loss of Peyton Manning to neck issues was a big part of why the Colts were the worst team in the league, but not the only reason. The team has work to do in many areas, and they'll probably be lucky to finish 8-8 this year. Luck could be outstanding and perception will still hold him responsible for anything short of a dramatic turnaround.

Bad Timing

Cam Newton shattered rookie records and electrified the league from the moment he stepped on the field for his regular season debut. Andy Dalton looked like a grizzled vet while he led his team to the playoffs in his first year. It was assumed that even the most talented rookie quarterbacks would struggle until 2011, when we had two of the best rookie signal-caller performances in league history. All of a sudden, rookie QB success seems routine.

Bad Timing, Part II

Luck is following a legend who brought Indianapolis their first Super Bowl title and a long track record of organizational success. The rookie's arrival is quite instrumental in Peyton Manning's departure, and it is widely known that Luck did not want to sit. Aaron Rodgers and Steve Young were the last quarterbacks with such massive shoes to fill, but they were well-developed before they took the franchise on their shoulders. Luck will have no such luxury.

The Great Emotional Divide

This is a term coined by football writer Matt Waldman. He very correctly points out that even NFL GMs can never know with certainty how a player will manage the transition from college to the pros. Heck, the players themselves can't know for sure how they will handle it until they're in the thick of it. Luck is very likely to face unattainable expectations and a lot of negativity during understandable growing pains. How will he react? Will he be able to block out the static and maintain his focus? Will he start to visualize failure instead of success? We're in uncharted territory, so no outcome should be too surprising.