Fantasy NASCAR Picks for Kobalt Tools 400 in Las Vegas

Two races are in the books and the drivers are finally starting to reveal what they have for the 2012 season. Just in time for their trip to Las Vegas.

Denny Hamlin looks to be in a bounce-back year. Hamlin was the odds on favorite to finish second in the point standings in 2011. After a disappointing season, Hamlin was teamed up with the defending NASCAR championship crew chief, Darian Grubb. Grubb has led his teams to six wins in the last 12 races. Maybe we do not know who the best driver is in 2012, but it is obvious who the best crew chief is. Grubb and Hamlin have got off to a great start this season. If Hamlin has success in Las Vegas (Career average finish of 11.7), then he will be a must-start in the Fantasy NASCAR game.

Like Hamlin, I got off to a good start this season. I started Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, Kasey Kahne and Bobby Lobante in the Yahoo Fantasy Auto Racing game. Kahne’s wreck ruined my chances to have a great week. The lineup was good enough for 278-points (570 total points for the season) and put me in the top 96% of Yahoo Fantasy Auto Racing players.

For the NASCAR Fantasy Live game, I started Carl Edwards, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin and Aric Almirola ($99.50 budget). The lineup scored me 284 points and 492 total points for the season. Currently I am ranked 1,540 overall in the nascar.com Fantasy Live standings.

The key to winning at Las Vegas is handling. The drivers who unload off the truck with the best handling car will be the drivers to beat on Sunday. I will take into consideration who the crew chief is for each team when making my selections.

Here are my picks for the Yahoo Fantasy Auto Racing game and NASCAR Fantasy Live played on nascar.com.

Yahoo Group A Drivers

The Group A drivers in the Yahoo Fantasy Auto Racing game is deep. There are at least seven drivers with a good chance of winning at Las Vegas. Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson have won the last four races. Tony Stewart dominated last year by leading for 163 laps. In 2010, Jeff Gordon dominated the race, leading for 212 laps. Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick are off to great starts in 2012, sitting No. 1 and No. 3 in the point standings.

It will be easy to find fantasy success in Group A, but finding the driver who will finish on top of this group will be difficult.

Last week Yahoo allowed fantasy players to watch the practices and qualifying before setting their line-ups. This week fantasy players must set their lineups before any practices or qualifying takes place. This will make it more difficult to find the right driver to go with. I am writing this column to help you select the best drivers for your team. Visit my Fantasy NASCAR Tips page on facebook Saturday night to see which drivers I am starting for the race. You can also see 11 other experts’ picks for the race.

Here are my selections for the Yahoo Group A:

Carl Edwards

The Sprint Cup Series is in Las Vegas and I want to be holding a pair of nines. Edwards has been terrific at Las Vegas the past four seasons. He won two of the races, and finished No. 12 and No. 17 in the others. Edwards has not gotten off to the start he had hoped for in 2012 with a No. 8 finish at Daytona and a No. 17 finish in Phoenix. Edwards dominated the intermediate tracks last season. He had 15 top-10 finishes in 17 starts. This will be the week Edwards makes his way to the top of the point standings.

Jimmie Johnson

I really think Johnson had the car to beat last week at Phoenix. He was dominating the race until he had a loose wheel. The No. 48 team usually sandbags the first half of the season. They use the first half of the season to collect data to make their team dominant in the Chase. This season the No. 48 team is in a hole after being docked 25 points. Johnson will do everything he can to win as many races as possible to gain back the points the team lost. I usually hold off using Johnson until the Chase begins, but I think he will step up his game early in the 2012 season.

Other good picks: Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth

Yahoo Group B Drivers

There are a number of drivers in Group B who have a history of finishing well in Las Vegas. I am going to select a combination of drivers who have finished well at the track in the past and drivers who are currently having success in the 2012 season.

Here are my selections for Yahoo Group B:

Greg Biffle

I hate to start using up all of my starts with Biffle so early in the season, but I cannot overlook his success at Las Vegas. Biffle has five top-10 finishes in eight career starts at Las Vegas. He has also won one pole. Biffle is hot right now. He finished in the top-5 in both races this year, and now he is at one of his best tracks. That is a combination that cannot be overlooked.

Jeff Burton

Burton is another driver that has been good at Las Vegas. He has won twice at the track and over the past four races at Las Vegas; Burton has an average finish of 9.5. He also led 71 laps in those races. Burton ran well in Phoenix last week until he had engine trouble. Burton will bounce back at Las Vegas, a track that has been good to him in the past.

Joey Logano

The selection of Logano as a Group B driver is because of his success in 2012. Logano has failed to live up to expectations. This will be the year Logano lives up to the nickname “Sliced Bread.” I am not suggesting he will win the championship, but a spot in the Chase is not out of the picture. Logano has a good relationship with his new crew chief, Jason Ratcliff. Their early season success will not stop in Las Vegas.

Marcus Ambrose

Every week I try to go with a sleeper pick. Ambrose is my sleeper pick this week, although he should not be. Ambrose has been very good at Las Vegas. The problem is that everyone considers Ambrose a road course racer only. That is not the case. In Ambrose’s three races at Las Vegas he has increased his finishing position each year: No. 4 (2011), No. 14 (2010) and No. 20 (2009). If he improves upon his No. 4 finish from last year, he will be money in the bank.

Other good picks: Clint Bowyer, Mark Martin, Martin Truex Jr., Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Yahoo Group C Drivers

The Group C list of drivers is very shallow this year. Fantasy players are desperate for a driver to emerge from this group. I think Aric Almirola will be by far the best driver in this group, but fantasy players can only use him nine times. You must be very careful where you use Almirola, so that you get the maximum points out of him. It would really help if Ricky Stenhouse Jr. was given a chance by Roush Fenway Racing to drive the No. 6 car full-time. Until that happens, fantasy players will have to dig deep in Group C.

Here are my selections for Group C:

Trevor Bayne

I am leaning towards starting Bayne this week as my Group C driver. Bayne has one career start in the Sprint Cup Series at Las Vegas. He started the race No. 16 and finished the race No. 20. Not too bad for a Group C driver. Bayne will race in the Nationwide Series on Saturday. Hopefully he will learn something in that race that he can translate into his Sprint Cup race on Sunday. I like Bayne to finish around the No. 20 position again this Sunday.

Bobby Labonte

There will be many people who select Almirola as their Group C driver. His average finish at Las Vegas is No. 38. There are much better places to use him. I am selecting Labonte as my second Group C driver. I plan on using Bayne, but if he struggles in practice I will feel good about using Labonte in his place. Labonte has five top-10 finishes, four top-5 finishes and two poles at Las Vegas. His average finish over the last four races in Las Vegas is 20.5. He will finish near the No. 20 spot on Sunday.

Other good picks: Aric Almirola, Casey Mears, David Ruetimann

Fantasy Live Picks (nascar.com)

Last week’s team: Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Aric Almirola ($99.50 Budget) Total score: 284 points

I am starting to figure out the Fantasy Live game on nascar.com. The key to scoring high each week is to select a roster combining drivers who will come from the back of the field and finish near the front, and some drivers who will start up front and lead many laps. That was my strategy last week and it paid off. That will be my strategy again this week.

Unlike the Yahoo Fantasy Auto Racing game, Fantasy Live allows players to change their drivers up to the start of the race. I will give my selections for my team now, but I suggest looking at where each driver qualifies in the race. Remember to take at least two drivers starting in the back who you think will move to the front. My updated selections will be on my Fantasy NASCAR Tips Page on Facebook Saturday evening.

Here are my picks for the Daytona 500 for NASCAR Fantasy Live:

Matt Kenseth $26.50

This week I decided to sell Edwards for $27 and purchase Kenseth for $26.50. I think Edwards will perform well on Sunday, but I like Kenseth’s chances of starting in the back and finishing up front. Kenseth has a career average starting position of 17.7 and an average finishing position of 11.7 at Las Vegas. Kenseth has looked like the best driver from Roush Fenway Racing. I plan to use him this week on my team.

Kyle Busch $26

My other trade this week involves Gordon. He has been all or nothing the past four races at Las Vegas. Gordon finished No. 36 last year, No. 3 in 2010, No. 6 in 2009 and No. 35 in 2008. I like Busch at his home track over Gordon.

Busch is a driver I think will start up front and lead many laps on Sunday. Busch has started eight races at Las Vegas with four top-10 finishes, three top-5 finishes, one win and two poles. Joe Gibbs Racing has looked strong this season. All three Joe Gibbs drivers are in the top-10 in the point standings. Busch will race in the Nationwide Series on Saturday and I think that will be an advantage for him on Sunday.

Jimmie Johnson $25

I am sticking with Johnson this week. He has some points to make up due to the penalty to his team. Las Vegas is a good track for Johnson. Johnson has 10 career starts at Las Vegas with five top-10 finishes, four top-5 finishes, and four wins. I would not be surprised to see Johnson get his fifth win at Las Vegas on Sunday.

Mark Martin $18.50

Martin is running a limited schedule in 2012 and I will use him where I can. Las Vegas is one of Martin’s best tracks. Martin is one of the drivers who have started every race at Las Vegas. In the 14 races at the track, Martin has 10 top-10 finishes, six top-5 finishes and one win. Martin may be a driver who starts in the back and finishes up front.

Aric Almirola $3

I am keeping Almirola on my team this week solely because of his price. For $3 you cannot find a better driver. Almirola paid off last week, finishing the race in the No. 12 position. Hopefully he can do it again. Almirola should start in the middle of the pack and finish near the top 20 position. Until a cheaper driver emerges from the pack, I will continue to use Almirola, hoping his price increases.

Total budget: $100.00

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Chad’s Fantasy NASCAR Picks