No Hope for San Diego? Picking the NFL Divisional Games Using Historic Trends

I went 2-2 last week, and if there's a lesson I learned, it's this: Pay attention to the home-field advantage.

Last week, two road teams won—and in the other two games, the visitor had beaten the home team in the regular season, and Tavaris Jackson was the starter of the other home team.

But this week, the issue of seeding and whether 8-8 teams should host 12-4 teams is out of the question. No home team is at a serious disadvantage (so I won't end up picking four road teams—yes, I'm still mad at Atlanta).

I'll be looking at historic playoff trends (did you know that home teams are only 25-11 in the Divisional round since 2000, after a 30-6 record from 1991 to 1999) in hopes of a 4-0 record this week. Let's start with the Saturday games.

No. 6 Baltimore Ravens at No. 1 Tennessee Titans (-3)

Notable Trends

• Since 1991, when the playoffs were restructured to what they are now, the home team has a 14-4 record (10-8 against the spread) in the first game of the Divisional round, and a 6-3 record (4-5 ATS) since 2000.
• The favorite in games where the spread is three points or less is 7-5 (5-6-1 ATS) since 1991 and 3-3 (2-3-1 ATS) since 2000.
• Teams coming off a Wild-card win of 14 or more points are 12-24 straight up (15-20-1 ATS) since 1991 and 8-11 (10-8-1 ATS) since 2000.
• In games where less than 40 points were scored, home teams are 23-8 (16-15 ATS) since 1991 and 12-5 (8-9 ATS) since 2000.

Comments

Though these two never played in the regular season, Kerry Collins has faced this team before: Super Bowl XXXV. That was nearly nine years ago, yet Ray Lewis and Ed Reed make this 2008 Ravens defense a spitting image of that 2000 Super Bowl team.

Although I picked Baltimore over the Titans before the playoffs, it's hard not to change that after seeing the record of teams coming off a 14-or-more-point win in the Wild-card round.

But I just don't see the Titans scoring points on this Ravens defense. The Titans scored only 13 in their week five matchup, and they haven't improved at all on offense; the Ravens—who scored just 10 in that game—and Joe Flacco have improved each and every week, averaging just under 28 points per game from week 10 on.

Le'Ron McLain should run over the Titans, whose top two players—Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch—are injured.

The pick: Ravens 17, Titans 14

No. 4 Arizona Cardinals at No. 2 Carolina Panthers (-9.5)

Notable Trends

• Since 1991, when the playoffs were restructured to what they are now, the home team has a 16-2 record (8-9-1 against the spread) in the first game of the Divisional round, and a 9-0 record (4-4-1 ATS) since 2000.
• The favorite in games where the spread is eight points or more is 23-6 (18-10 ATS) since 1991 and 9-2 (6-5 ATS) since 2000.
• Teams coming off a Wild-card win of less than seven points are 4-18 straight up (13-9 ATS) since 1991 and 1-11 (8-4 ATS) since 2000.
• In games where 40-59 points were scored, home teams are 22-8 (15-17 ATS) since 1991 but only 7-5 (4-8 ATS) since 2000.

Comments

The Cardinals had a dominant defensive performance last week? They gave up 24 points! The Atlanta Falcons scored three touchdowns—all in the red zone. They can give up 250 total yards any game, but if they give up 24 to the Panthers, there's no way they can pull out a victory.

In fact, I don't even need to know that the Panthers and Cardinals are playing. With the trends above that wholly lower Arizona's chance to win, and the fact that the Cardinals are 0-5 (1-4 ATS) on the East coast this year, including a 23-27 loss to these same Panthers, and the fact that Arizona is 3-4 in its past seven games, outscored by more than a touchdown per game, it's no wonder why the Cards are 9.5 point underdogs.

This game is going to be a complete disaster for the Cards offensive and defensively. Look for the Panthers to win in a route.

The pick: Carolina 34, Arizona 21

No. 6 Philadelphia Eagles at No. 1 New York Giants (-4.5

Notable Trends

• Since 1991, when the playoffs were restructured to what they are now, the home team has a 14-4 record (12-6 against the spread) in the first game of the Divisional round, and a 5-4 record (4-5 ATS) since 2000.
• Road teams are 5-2 straight up and ATS in the last seven games in this series. Underdogs are 6-1 in those seven games.
• However, the Giants are 7-1 straight up and 6-2 ATS in their last eight homes games.

Comments

I remind you of last year's playoffs, where the Giants where underdogs in each game. And where the Giants won each game. The Giants were out of the spotlight in each week, given no love or respect. Yet they won, game in, game out.

They're the No. 1 seed, having gone 12-4 in the regular season.

So why are people picking the Eagles?

Philadelphia is 5-1 after benching Donovan McNabb in a week 12 game against the Ravens, outscoring opponents by 16 in those six games.

The Giants, on the other hand, are 1-3 in their last four games after starting 11-1, although one of those was a last-second loss to the Vikings with their starters benched for the second half, and another was a six-point loss to the Eagles.

But if you think the Giants won last year because they had the momentum going into the playoffs? They didn't. They went 3-2 in their last five and 4-4 in their last eight after a 6-2 start.

Momentum shouldn't be a factor this week.

The road team and underdog has been hot in the past seven meetings of these two teams, as noted in the trends section. But the Giants are hot at home, winning seven of their last eight.

Which trend will be busted this week: The first one.

The Eagles' offense was atrocious last week. After scoring three field goals, the Eagles punted or turned the ball over all but twice in their last seven drives. Once, they threw a screen pass to Brian Westbrook who somehow ran through the defense to the end zone; the other, they kicked a field goal with less than two minutes left after getting the ball in Minnesota territory and the Vikings were already out of it.

If it weren't for the Tavaris Jackson pick-six, that field goal might have ended the game.

The Eagles won't be able to score two touchdowns this week. Give me the Giants.

The pick: New York 24, Philadelphia 13

No. 4 San Diego Chargers at No. 2 Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)

Notable Trends

• Since 1991, when the playoffs were restructured to what they are now, the home team (all but one were favorites) has a 11-7 record (9-9 against the spread) in the first game of the Divisional round, and a 5-4 record (4-5 ATS) since 2000.
• Teams coming off a Wild-card win of less than seven points are 4-18 straight up (13-9 ATS) since 1991 and 1-11 (8-4 ATS) since 2000.
• Pittsburgh is 11-1 straight up in their past 12 games at home against the Chargers.

Comments

I want to pick the Chargers. I want to. The fourth game is always the most likely to sport an upset. I know.

But I can't.

I can't pick a team that is 1-11 against its opponent on the road. I can't pick a team that won its past five games, yet only two were against winning teams, and their five opponents averaged only seven wins. I can't pick a team that won its last game in overtime by six, when all other teams who won by six or less in the Wild-card round have four wins in 22 Divisional-round games.

I just can't.

Pittsburgh finished the year 6-1, and three of those six wins came against winning teams—while another came against the Chargers. The Steelers ended the year with the far and away the best defense in the league, and arguably a top-five defense of all-time.

The Chargers are an enigma, however. Is Darren Sproles going to get 250 all-purpose yards this week against the Steelers? Will we see their post-bye week defense (18.3 points allowed per game), or their pre-bye week defense (24.9 per game)? Will we see their regular season performance against playoff teams (0-5 against the Panthers, Dolphins, Steelers, Colts, and Falcons), or their playoff performance against playoff teams (1-0 against the Colts)?

This could be the game where I'm dead wrong. But the Chargers can't win...can they?
The pick: Steelers 20, Chargers 17

---

All data of past playoff spreads was taken from Sunshine Forecast.