2012 NFL Free Agents: Predicting Players Guaranteed to Receive the Franchise Tag

With the March 5 deadline approaching fast, combined with top players still having yet to agree to new deals, it would be surprising if teams neglected to place the franchise tag.

At the very least, doing so can buy a team some time in order to get a deal worked out before the free-agency period begins on March 13.

So, here's to predicting those players who will get the tag, thus allowing more time to negotiate a new contract.

Full view of projected 2012 salary caps.

Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots

According to Greg Bedard of the Boston Globe, Patriots receiver Wes Welker has to see this coming:

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The Patriots, barring some unusual development, will likely place the franchise tag on Welker, which will pay him about $9.4 million guaranteed next season.

Welker can either sign the tender—which would guarantee his place on the team—or he could wait. Welker would sign it if he thought a legitimate contract extension offer was coming.

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Welker is certainly not a player that the Patriots can afford to lose and not somebody that Tom Brady wants on another team.

Since joining New England in 2007, Welker has embraced "The Patriot Way" and has easily been Brady's favorite target. Obviously the Super Bowl dropped pass sticks out more than a lot of his best plays, but there's no denying Welker's value to the Pats.

It would be shocking if he wasn't offered a long-term deal, especially since Deion Branch and Chad Ochocinco are old and Julian Edelman is not the answer at the slot: It's Welker.

Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens

In an article by Aaron Wilson of the Carroll County Times, Baltimore Ravens running back Ray Rice is expecting the tag:

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"The meeting went fine," [Todd] France (Rice's Agent) told the Times. "We obviously know the tag is coming, but we will continue to have open dialogue and see if we can come to a long-term agreement, which is the preference for both sides."

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Considering Rice's importance to the Ravens offense and quarterback Joe Flacco, Baltimore really has no option for the 2012 season.

Compared to roughly half of the league, Baltimore has limited cap space, and after how both Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson performed in 2011, offering longevity to a running back is quite a risk.

Right now Rice is 25 years old and provided he rolls again in 2012, a long-term deal is likely for 2013 and thereafter. If anything, though, the Ravens desperately need to get him a complement No. 2 back via draft or free agency.

At the very least, it will spare his body a few more hits than usual to be even more effective late in the season. Ricky Williams was great, but having one young Brahma Bull is brutal in the NFL.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

According to Adam Schefter of ESPN, the Kansas City Chiefs are likely to tag receiver Dwayne Bowe:

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The Kansas City Chiefs plan to use the franchise tag on wide receiver Dwayne Bowe if the two sides cannot reach a new deal, according to a league source.

The franchise tag number for wide receivers this year is $9.5 million.

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No surprise here from the Chiefs, and it's a smart decision, because Bowe proved to be soundly productive despite a quarterback carousel in Kansas City along with the firing of head coach Todd Haley.

He also was each quarterback's only legitimized receiving target. Yes, No. 2 man Steve Breaston was decent with 785 yards on 61 receptions as well as two touchdowns, but without Bowe, that doesn't happen.

Additionally, rookie Jonathan Baldwin caught just 21 passes for 254 yards and one touchdown. It's clear that he's a potential bust, and retaining Bowe for the future is the Chiefs' best hope in the passing game.

It also wouldn't be a bad idea to get Matt Cassel and Jamaal Charles back to 100 percent either.

Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

According to Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune on the National Football Post, the Bears will be expected to tag running back Matt Forte if an agreement doesn't occur:

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The Bears will, without question, tender the franchise tag to Forte if a deal cannot be struck by the deadline. He will not enter the open market. But even if Forte is tagged, the sides will be able to work toward a long-term agreement.

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If there's any one player who is arguably more important to his team than say, Tom Brady or Maurice Jones-Drew, Forte is at least near the top of the list.

Take Forte away from the Bears, and they literally have no offense. This is a guy who has compiled an average of 1,554 total yards per season since his rookie year in 2008. And he was on pace to set single-season career highs in rushing and receiving yards before his injury cut short the 2011 campaign.

Despite all their injuries prior to Forte, Chicago was still in the playoff hunt and had a legit shot at outrunning the Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons. After all, the Bears had split with the Lions and defeated Atlanta way back in Week 1.

As for 2012, Forte will be a hot commodity if he neglects to sign the tender. And the Bears would regret not offering a long-term deal from the get-go.

DeSean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Despite an inconsistent season in 2011 that was also disappointing from an overall team perspective, the Philadelphia Eagles can't afford to lose receiver/return specialist DeSean Jackson.

In an article by Jeff McLane on the Philadelphia Inquirer from earlier in February, the Eagles plan on tagging Jackson:

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The Eagles are going to franchise DeSean Jackson, count on it.

They will not let their Pro Bowl receiver - whose contract is set to expire - walk without getting something in return, according to NFL sources.

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This, of all ideas, is a good move for Philadelphia because of decent cap space and a lot of movement rolling into the 2012 season. Make no mistake about it, from an individual and franchise perspective, the Eagles significantly underachieved last fall, especially when you consider all the talent.

They did close out on a four-game win streak and finish 5-1 in the NFC East. And if there's any evidence as to how important your primary return man is in the postseason, just look at the NFC title game.

Philadelphia has the potential to be in San Francisco's position, but not having Jackson back deep for returns could ultimately cost them next season.

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

It's unfortunate that both sides had to come to this, but pro football is a business and business plays a big role in free agency.

And according to Adam Schefter of ESPN, the New Orleans Saints and quarterback Drew Brees have yet to find a common ground:

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The New Orleans Saints and quarterback Drew Brees still remain a ways apart in their efforts to produce a long-term contract, according to league sources.

If the two sides cannot make considerable progress from where they are today, the Saints will be forced to use their franchise tag on Brees by the Monday deadline.

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This is rather surprising after Brees threw for over 5,400 yards and had a 71.2 completion percentage. Plus, the man was sacked only 24 times, connected on 46 touchdowns to just 14 picks and finished with a rating of 110.6.

Had it not been for Brees, the Saints franchise would still be in dire straits as they were before he came along in 2006. Four years thereafter, The Big Easy had a Super Bowl championship and have made the playoffs three straight years.

The sooner both sides agree, the better off the Saints are for the immediate future.

Cliff Avril, DL, Detroit Lions

Neither side wants to go this route, but it may be the only option as the deadline closes in.

According to Paula Pasche of The News-Herald, the Detroit Lions and defensive lineman Cliff Avril appear to be headed toward a tag:

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The Lions, not big fans of the franchise tag, will use it, if necessary, with Cliff Avril. However that is not the first option according to Lions general manager who spoke at the NFL Combine on Friday.

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Still, this appears to be the option, and if the Lions want to continue improving on defense, retaining Avril is imperative.

For one, the man did record 11 sacks in 2011 as well as forced six fumbles. That kind of production would be devastating to lose. Provided that Detroit can improve defensive via the draft and/or free agency, well, then that obviously helps for 2012.

However, if that happens without Avril coming back, the Lions remain a vulnerable bunch and would be fortunate to make a second consecutive playoff berth. And if there's one area where Detroit must improve and build, it's on the defense.

John Rozum on Twitter