Carolina Panthers Fans: Beware the Obvious Game

All the talk around the league this week is how good three of the four divisional games are going to be.

Baltimore at Tennessee, San Diego at Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia at NY Giants are hotly anticipated games, expected to be close and entertaining.

The Panthers, meanwhile, host the Cardinals Saturday night in a game that everyone assumes is over already. Carolina is favored by 10, and there's not a pundit outside the immediate Phoenix area that is prepared to pick the Cardinals to even cover the spread, let alone win the game.

The main reasons for that opinion seem to be that Carolina went 8-0 at home, and that the Panthers have one of the league's best running attacks.

This barely mattered in Week Eight, when the two teams matched up and Carolina should've lost. And the game was played at Bank of America Stadium.

The Panthers managed to escape 27-23, but Arizona led the game 17-3 after kicking a field goal on the first drive of the third quarter. It was only after Steve Smith (a 65-yard TD reception) and DeAngelo Williams (a 100-yard game) took over in the second half, and the Carolina defense forced a timely turnover, that the game swung to the Panthers.

Don't get me wrong, both teams have done a lot since then that makes the opinion that Carolina might blow out Arizona a defensible one. The Cardinals entered the game 4-2 and looking like they might justify all the discussion of their team as a big-time sleeper in the NFC.

They are a mere 5-5 since then, and it's become increasingly clear that the NFC West was perhaps the most ridiculously easy division in the history of sports this year. Also, they are 0-5 on the East Coast, including some real stinker performances like the one at New England.

Meanwhile, Carolina's running attack has emerged. Jonathan Stewart and Williams, when they aren't arguing over who created the nickname "Smash and Dash" with LenDale White and Chris Johnson, are leading the league in rushing yards by a tandem. (The Panthers' duo has since adopted "Double Trouble" as their nickname, ending the ridiculous tiff with the Titans' White and Johnson.)

Steve Smith has rounded into shape once again as probably the most dangerous receiver in the league. And the Panthers finished the season winning eight of their last 10.

However, and this is important...It's the playoffs. Weird things happen in the playoffs. Even weirder things tend to happen when one team is roundly expected to beat the other. Remember how New England was supposed to cream the Giants last year? How the Colts were never ever going to beat New England in a playoff game in 2006?

How the Patriots were just supposed to run over Carolina in the Super Bowl in 2003? And on down the line...Weird stuff happens when there's a double-digit favorite in a playoff game.

If you're that confident that the Panthers are going to win, you're banking on a few things. First, you're assuming that the Cardinals' run defense, which did a pretty good job on Michael Turner last week, will be unable to stop the Panthers' own running game.

Second, you figure that Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, and (possibly) Anquan Boldin are not going to be able to get a lot against the Carolina secondary. Keep in mind, Warner threw for 381 yards in Charlotte in Week Eight, when Boldin was playing his first game back from his broken-face injury.

And third, you are figuring the combination of a boisterous Panthers' home crowd (it's easy to forget after the Panthers made it to the NFC title game in 2005, but Charlotte hasn't hosted a playoff game in five years) and Arizona's inability to win East Coast games will rear its ugly head once again.

I think the Panthers are going to win. I'm just delivering the message. You have to be wary of games that everyone thinks are a slam dunk. What you might just get instead could be the best game of divisional playoff weekend.