UFC 144 Predictions: Keys to Victory for Tim Boetsch

In just a few hours, UFC 144 kicks off from Saitama Super Arena in Japan. About halfway through the scheduled main card, rugged middleweights Tim Boetsch (14-4) and Yushin Okami (26-6) take the cage to help separate wheat from chaff at 185.

As most fans know, Okami won three straight UFC bouts in 2010, and in so doing earned the right to become Anderson Silva's next victim. He served the role ably.

On the other side, Boetsch is 2-0 since dropping to middleweight. He's a pretty big dude, but fighting at 185, he's downright huge. Nevertheless, he's a decided underdog against a very accomplished and refocused Okami.

Can Boetsch steal a victory? Yes, he can. It will take a few things going his way, but it can definitely happen.

Okami will enjoy a speed advantage and better technical skills all the way around. His standup has improved since the Silva loss, and he could go for a stick-and-move type of strategy. That's probably the wise decision, anyway, since Okami, like most other human beings, will find himself in trouble if Boetsch can get those big paws on him.

So that's the first key to a win for Boetsch: get the paws on him (pardon the jargon). Fights turn quickly for "The Barbarian" when he can wrap up and work his judo/pankration game, which often involves big-time throws and slams.

He can throw hands, too, and occasionally even feet and knees. Regardless of the phase of the fight, Boetsch is never the quickest guy out there, but I have to think he's always the strongest in a middleweight context. Not only can he get Okami to the ground, he can do so in a punishing and point-scoring fashion. And once there, Boetsch has the tools and the fortitude to keep him there.

But not all ground fights are created equal, especially when you're talking about Boetsch. Think back to his fight with Phil Davis. Once the national champion wrestler put Boetsch on his back, it was like a dog toying with a capsized turtle (Boetsch ultimately tapped to a kimura in the second round). Boetsch's game works well when it's going forward. Going in reverse, not really.

And that's the other big key for Boetsch. Okami's main weakness lies between his ears. Okami claims he is looser now, and less nervous leading up to this fight. Boetsch would be wise to test the integrity of that claim as soon as possible. A powerful judo toss is a demoralizing thing, especially when followed by extended periods of ground and pound. 

In other words, Boetsch knows how to break a fighter. Okami has shown he can be broken. If Boetsch can build and then leverage some physical and psychological momentum in a way that prevents Okami from outboxing him on the feet or otherwise finding a comfort zone, it's not unrealistic to imagine Boetsch with his hand raised at the end.  

(Photo h/t: UFC.com)