Texas Triangle Report Card: Spurs, Mavericks, and Rockets Playoff Outlooks

With the NBA season's halfway mark less than five weeks away, it's a good time to start evaluating how playoff contending teams might fit into a convoluted seeding picture.

No one can predict who besides the Los Angeles Lakers will land where in either conference. However, most teams have offered a taste of how far they might go if they nabbed a postseason berth.

In no state is the playoff picture muddier than Texas. Andrew Ungvari wrote a broad piece on the entire Western Conference playoff race, so I decided to narrow the scope to the trio in my pulchritudinous home state.

The Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets, and San Antonio Spurs have each surprised in their own ways. The weaknesses of each squads should surprise no one.

Do any of these three teams look championship caliber? Could you see any of these veteran-heavy franchises unseating the deeply flawed but still favored and mighty Los Angeles Lakers in a seven-game series?

With the Lakers, Boston Celtics, and Cleveland Cavaliers in a three-team dogfight for league supremacy, does anybody care about Texas anymore? Um, please don't answer that. You might hurt my feelings.

And, be honest, how many of you opened a new Internet window and searched "pulchritudinous" on a dictionary Web site? I bombed the SAT but did learn a few words from that lengthy vocabulary list.

With out further achooo, since my allergies are flaring up again, here's my near mid-season report card of each team in Texas Triangle.

The Mavericks could beat a Division II college basketball team in a championship game but not an NBA one. The fans must accept second-tier mediocrity because these Mavericks are not deplorable enough to fall to the lottery and not meticulous or good enough to win a playoff series.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Record: 23-11

Off- and early-season story lines:

·           Superstar sub Manu Ginobili jammed his bum ankle again in Beijing and opted for a September surgery that was to leave him sidelined until mid-December.

·           With a dismal 1-3 record, and a home date against the youthful Miami Heat, point guard Tony Parker sprained his ankle on a drive to hoop 10 minutes into the game. Dwyane Wade's Heat slapped the Spurs silly, 98-83, team officials projected Parker could miss four weeks, and some fans in the Alamo City began mouthing the 'L' word.

·           Gregg Popovich, along with his crafty coaching staff, spent the summer devising new defensive schemes to throw at unsuspecting opponents. Five straight teams destroyed those new schemes to open the season and dropped the Spurs to the bottom five in all defensive categories.

Reasons for the turnaround after the abysmal 1-4 start:

·           George Hill not playing like a 26th draft pick from a no-name school. He showed poise and an eagerness to learn in the absence of Parker and Ginobili. He strung together three-straight 20-point games and even finished a close contest against the resurgent Atlanta Hawks instead of Parker.

·           Roger Mason has been the summer's free agent steal. He ranks third in three-point makes with 77-plus, second in three-point percentage and has averaged 12 or more points the entire season. Two of those treys are game-winners, one against the Clippers, and the other against the Suns. Merry Christmas San Antonio indeed.

·           Much earlier than expected returns for Parker and Ginobili.

·           The greatest power forward to ever play the game.

·           Tim Duncan's leadership, still heroic defense and prolific scoring in the post.

·           And, since he's so great and important to the team's success, Tim Duncan again.

·           Matt Bonner proving he deserves the minutes formerly occupied by Robert Horry with all-out hustle, admirable defense and stunning accuracy from behind the arc.

·           A soft, favorable schedule that climaxes in the next two months, including the annual Rodeo Road Trip.

·           Popovich tossing his creative defensive schemes in favor of the stuff he knows can win a championship.

Team's five best wins:

1.       133-126, double overtime, at Dallas Mavericks

2.       95-89, the next night, vs. Atlanta Hawks

3.       77-75, without Parker and Ginobili, vs. Houston Rockets

4.       108-91, a complete thumping, at Denver Nuggets

5.       91-90, where Mason and Duncan saved Christmas, at Phoenix Suns

Team's five worst losses:

1.       98-103, when Parker and Duncan feasted in the paint but could not defend down the stretch, vs. Phoenix Suns

2.       77-89, a hideous fourth quarter meltdown after a 10-point third-quarter lead, vs. Detroit Pistons

3.       83-90, an impossible-to-stomach, epic pratfall that will haunt the team in April, at New Orleans Hornets

4.       99-100, where Michael Finley's open 10-footer would have won the game, at Portland Trail Blazers

5.   84-103, letting spaced-out Luther Head erupt for 21 was a season lowlight, at Houston Rockets

A win to forget:

1.       109-104, as the Spurs blew a 29-point lead and let a woeful team rack up 54 points in the paint on layups and dunks, vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Reasons the team can win a championship:

·           Tim Duncan's continued dominance.

·           The backcourt brilliance and health of Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker.

·           Limited but still noteworthy exhibition of the stifling defense that has bloodied up beautiful-to-watch offenses for more than a decade.

·           Bruce Bowen, 37, still has the ability to suffocate elite wing scorers. He helped harass Dwyane Wade into a 10-26 night in Miami, and has leveled O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay in recent weeks.

·           George Hill's rapid maturity.

·           The Grade-A addition of Plan B Roger Mason.

·           No egos, just guys who want and know how to win big games.

·           Courage, humility, and appropriate fear.

·           Gregg Popovich is the king of in-game and in-series adjustments. His sideline acumen and ability to reach players tops all other coaches. It appears his Spurs have not forgotten about the stonecutter. If you don't get the reference, Google it. It's worth knowing.

Reasons why the Spurs won't win another trophy this year:

·           Tim Duncan is the only post-up threat on the Spurs. Against teams with big guys defensive enough to contain him, it's up to Parker and Ginobili to either finish tough drives or kick to trey bombers.

·           Over-reliance on three-pointers. When the open shots fall, the Spurs are as tough to beat as the Celtics and Lakers. When they clang, such as an 0-for-9 fourth quarter in that New Orleans collapse, the team's offense is just offensive.

·           Bruce Bowen and Kurt Thomas, both 37, are still above average defenders at their position. They are, however, useless offensively, out side of Bowen's occasional corner three-ball and a Thomas lay-up or open jumper.

·           With Ime Udoka struggling to get minutes, not scoring enough when he does and Bruce Bowen's lack of appreciable offense, the Spurs get little from the small forward position. Thus, Popovich has to play a lesser defender in Michael Finley at the three to generate some points.

·           The Spurs' toughest foes seem to be Los Angeles and New Orleans, and while the team has a fair shot against anyone else in the Western Conference, the road to the NBA Finals will likely go through both of those teams.

·           Even with Hill and Mason's added firepower, the Spurs still suffer deadly scoring droughts that can span anywhere from two to six minutes. See New Orleans loss above for an example.

·           The NBA's cellar dwellers are forcing the Spurs to tough finishes, which does not bode well for a roster full of vets who could use some fourth-quarter rest.

·           Supreme athletes give Spurs defenders some trouble (see Miller, Andre). The Spurs are short on athletes and long on specialist role players, many of them nearing retirement or career twilights.

What the Spurs need to win a championship:

·           Consistent, buzzsaw defense that holds opponents, even elite ones, to less than 90 points on less than 45 percent shooting.

·           Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili to stay healthy and be Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili.

·           More scoring punch from the small forward position.

·           An athletic big man who can create his own shot, catch alley-oop passes and play adequate defense at the rim.

·           Ian Mahinmi, the 2005 draft pick from France, to become above player, since no one else fitting that description is available.

·           Perfection from the role players.

·           The good fortune to play at least two of the teams from the 2007 championship run (The Nuggets, Suns or Jazz).

Prognosis:

The Spurs are resourceful, tough, and as unselfish a team as you will find in any sport. While the chances of a fifth odd-year championship seem extraordinarily low, the Spurs are the one team in the Western Conference stacked with enough players who know how such banners are won. They have displayed as much grit through the injuries to their All-Star guards as they have an inability to put away bad teams with high-flying athletes.

Too many contests against sub-.500 lottery-bound teams may tire out the veterans before the playoffs arrive. The schedule has also been favorable, with the toughest stretches still ahead. The Spurs will say a lot about their title chances with another brutal Rodeo Road Trip slate in late January/February and a slew of grueling back-to-backs.

Missing the playoffs seems out of the question for this proud bunch, so a second or third round bounce seems like the safe prediction. However, it is an odd year, right?

Team grade:

B

DALLAS MAVERICKS

Record: 20-13

Off- and early-season storylines:

·           The early returns from the Jason Kidd trade showed the move to be a flop. Cuban dipped into his own wallet to the tune of $17 million to land the fading star. With Kidd at the helm, the Mavericks lost in a five-game ouster against the New Orleans Hornets.

·           Cuban did nothing this summer to shake up the core that has participated in three of the worst playoff choke jobs in NBA history. Skeptics wondered if this team was too damaged psychologically to ever be a 60-win team again.

·           Perhaps validating those early widespread concerns, the Mavericks began the season with an atrocious 2-7 record, looked like one of the five worst defensive teams in the league and there was small talk of Ricky Rubio in the Big D next season.

·           Josh Howard stained his career again with two flubs this summer. Some of his raking through the coals was unfair, but it was fair to wonder if he could return to the same 2006 and 2007 player who was a complete machine.

Reasons why the Mavs turned around that caustic record and have gone 18-6 since:

·           Jason Kidd has been heroic on both sides of the ball. He ranks second in the league in total assists and is among the leaders in rebounds for guards. That he is up to his old self is splendid news for a team that needed him to be more than just old.

·           Streaky super sub Jason Terry has been on fire from behind the arc. He still fluctuates between hot and cold spells, but his overall consistent torching of teams in a non-contract year should say a lot about his big hand in the record reversal.

·           Dirk Nowitzki can still score a lot of points in a hurry.

·           Devean George's steady defense.

·           More transition buckets.

·           More than a few terrific outings from Erick Dampier, including a domination of Shaquille O'Neal in a game against the Suns.

·           A seven-game homestand in which the team won five of seven.

·           At $1.5 million, J.J. Barea has proved a bargain option and might be the backup point guard Dallas needs. He went on a scoring tear in November and December and beat the Clippers with a clutch three.

Team's five best wins:

• 112-97, when "Ericka" dominated Shaq, vs. Phoenix Suns
• 124-114, the overtime shootout that began the 18-6 turnaround, at New York Knicks
• 96-86, the Mavs taking full advantage of Yao Ming’s absence, at Houston Rockets
• 102-94, stealing a road win at the Rose Garden after Josh Howard’s ejection in a Christmas nightcap, at Portland Trail Blazers
• 100-98, Mavs hang on for dear life and keep enough composure to edge quality team, vs. Atlanta Hawks

Team’s five worst losses:

• 88-98, where the offense fell apart and the defense sucked, vs. Denver Nuggets
• 93-102, where a bottom-feeder flummoxed the Mavs, at Los Angeles Clippers
• 82-102, playing with fire finally burned the careless Mavs, at Memphis Grizzlies
• 97-121, Devin Harris torches his former team’s no-show defense in an embarrassing rout, at New Jersey Nets
• 107-114, the Mavs were rolling against the top-seed on the road and then pissed away the game with their typical big game idiocy, at Los Angeles Lakers

A win to forget:

• 103-99, a dreadful team should have won with its dunk festival, but, well, it is dreadful, vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Why the Mavs can't win a championship:

·           The Mavs are still a jump-shooting team at heart, and as Charles Barkley says, "you don't live by jumpers, you die by jumpers." The Mavericks will certainly die if they rely on three-pointers and contested two-pointers to navigate four rounds of the playoffs.

·           They will be killed inside and have no answer on the other end, since the best player, Nowitzki, throws up jumpers at the end of most games.

·           Jason Kidd does not have enough help defense to contain explosive, athletic guards like Devin Harris and Andre Miller. A 35-year-old vet cannot be expected to stop these guys alone. That duty of assistance falls on Dampier, Nowitzki, Bass, and Diop and their performance in that area has been awful.

·           Though Kidd can still thread as dangerous a pass as he could his rookie year, he is a high-turnover point guard. Those miscues have often resulted in fast break dunks and layups on the other end.

·           Dirk Nowitzki can still score in bunches, but in most contests against elite teams, he drops most of those buckets before the fourth quarter. He choked away games against the Spurs and Lakers with his cowardice. Sure, he can hit dagger threes against lowly teams like the Thunder and Bobcats, but he still looks a player too hard on himself and soft to ever be the kind of clutch playoff performer the Mavs need.

·           Nowitzki is a matchup nightmare for any team given his range and skill set. However, who can he guard at the end of a game? The answer, as Rick Carlisle now reluctantly knows, is no one.

·           Josh Howard has returned from a nagging ankle injury, but he seems determined to win the award for most shots attempted per minute. His pop-a-shot routine impresses no one, and his measly two rebounds per contest in the last seven should flat out alarm Carlisle. The Mavs have no chance in the playoffs if Howard is a one-dimensional ball hog.

·           Firing Avery Johnson may have been necessary, given Cuban's refusal to punish the players at fault for recent playoff futility, but these Mavs could use the toughness he preached.

·           Carlisle is a good coach, but he is not better than Johnson. Less flawed and mistake-prone? Sure, but he has not appeared to reach these mental midgets better than Johnson did.

·           The Mavericks are as bad at playing down to the opponent as any playoff team in the last 20 years. Dallas mires in mediocrity when it dares crappy teams to hang around and beat it. The Memphis Grizzlies finally dished some just dessert to the Mavericks with an ugly Sunday rout.

·           Nowitzki talks about punishing smaller defenders at the rim but rarely does it.

·           How will the core of this team forget what it has done the last three years and move on from the pain? Besides the Harris for Kidd swap, how is this team any different from the one that gave away a championship in 2006? The answer, despite the mildest protest from Mavs fans: it's not.

What the Mavericks need to win a championship:

·           Josh Howard to be special on both ends, not just a shotjacker.

·           Someone with the testicles to score in the paint instead of taking a jump shot with the game in the balance.

·           Every player must realize that defense is not optional, and the decision not to play it, is how a drubbing at the hands of the Grizzlies happens.

·           Nowitzki not to be useless in a fourth quarter against a championship-caliber ball club.

·           Carlisle needs to find the right rotation that offers the right mix of offense and defense. Does this mean starting Terry and trying Howard as the go-to sixth man?

·           The Mavericks need a better middle- and end-of-game option than the three-guard lineup Carlisle has used in many wins. A Barea-Terry-Kidd combination will be exploited defensively, and though Howard has been re-inserted, the above lineup still poses a problem.

·           Heart and grit.

Prognosis:

Through 30-plus games, the Mavericks look no worse or better than last year. They have begged some pitiful teams to punch them in the nuts, and thus, the performance against playoff squads has also suffered.

Inexcusable surrenders to the Clippers and Grizzlies make the losses expected against great teams harder to stomach. The Mavericks need to bully the garbage teams so they can afford to drop games against much better units like the Lakers and Celtics. If you asked an average Mavs fan, they would tell you that 20-13 is better than 2-7, regardless of the team's struggles against winning franchises.

Who could they beat in a seven-game slog? Kobe Bryant will go off on them, David West pushes and punks Nowitzki around like a rodeo clown doll. The Spurs, no longer playing with a plantar fascitis-infected leader, still boast a championship moxie. The Nuggets fastbreak the Mavs into submission and Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake City is this team's version of hell.

Since the Blazers look primed for the eighth seed, and the Mavericks are nowhere close to snagging first place in the West, Dallas fans should enjoy the regular season and field low expectations when the playoffs arrive.

Team grade:

C+

HOUSTON ROCKETS

Record: 21-15

Off- and early-season storylines:

• After the quiet steal of sharpshooter Brent Barry from the rival Spurs, the Rockets made a lot of noise with the acquisition of effervescent forward Ron Artest. It was an announcement by General Manager Daryl Morey that team management expected a championship or bust season.
• McGrady opted for late summer knee surgery, predicting he would struggle through the early part of the season during recovery.
• Yao Ming played himself back into shape as his country hosted the 29th Summer Olympic Games. Contrary to popular conjecture, the Rockets were thrilled that Yao chose to play through after surgery pain to represent his country in its proudest moment of the last 25 years.
• The Rockets began one of the NBA's toughest schedules without defensive ace Shane Battier. The in-out, health crisis continues.

Why the Western Conference's second most talented team has its most tepid record:

• Ron Artest, Shane Battier, Tracy McGrady, and Brent Barry each have missed a slew of games with injury bouts. Yao Ming and Rafer Alston also made cameos on the injured list.
• McGrady has the Rockets bewildered on a string, not knowing whether he will play until an hour or so before tip-off.
• The Rockets have played two games, both losses, with a full lineup. The Rockets have yet to play any games with every player at 100 percent.
• McGrady and Yao are the team's $36 million leaders and have failed miserably in many games to inspire the defense and ball movement required for this team to reach its potential.
• McGrady and Yao begged Dikembe Mutombo to return with his leadership because they cannot do the job themselves.
• Yao cares and plays hard, but may never become the rally the troops kind of fireball that Tim Duncan is. The Rockets need one of their stars to become a leader and show the rest of the role players how to get it done.
• A defense supposedly destined to outclass the defending champion Boston Celtics has not kept teams, even bad ones, out of the paint. Instead, the Rockets have ushered teams to the basket with missed rotations, junk efforts and sloppy offense that leads to turnovers.
• The Rockets are shooting 39 percent at the Toyota Center, the worst mark for any Western Conference team in playoff contention.
• Ron Artest has rarely shortchanged Rick Adelman on effort, but he has at times run his own offense and heaved too many three-pointers.
• With the exception of a few complete efforts, the Rockets have played down to the competition and let some lousy teams out hustle them. For that, the Rockets are lousy.

Team's five best wins:

• 112-100, Ron Artest took over the fourth quarter as Yao Ming tallied 30 and 12 and the Rockets rolled up the home team in its season opener, at Dallas Mavericks
• 93-84, bouncing back from a colossal collapse, the guys in red thrashed the defending division champion in a complete effort, vs. New Orleans Hornets
• 108-97, on the night the team honored its retired, legendary broadcast duo, the Rockets made gorgeous second-half music against a surging team with a new, fierce leader, vs. Denver Nuggets
• 104-92, a 48-minute buffet line of desert dessert, at Phoenix Suns
• 114-91, the Rockets stuffed and suffocated the league's highest scoring backcourt and finally dominated a sub-.500 opponent from start to finish, at New Jersey Nets

Team's five worst losses (you mean I only get five?):

• 90-91, the offense folded the day before Thanksgiving, and the Rockets played like turkeys instead of pro ballers, vs. Indiana Pacers
• 92-105, the banged-up Rockets played like a please-pity-us team instead of a resilient one out for blood against one of the NBA's worst, at Los Angeles Clippers.
• 97-109, another pathetic, disgusting showing against a team with lottery visions, at Memphis Grizzlies
• 87-89, the worst sandbagging in my lifetime, to a cheerless team missing two All-Stars and a quality center, vs. Washington Wizards
• 73-94, maybe the most despicable game in franchise history where McGrady quit in the third quarter and his teammates followed, at Toronto Raptors

A win to forget:

89-77, a sleepwalk performance that had fans sleeping, vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Reasons not to give up on the season:

• Rick Adelman has yet to see what his team could do with a full, healthy lineup.
• The Shane Battier/Ron Artest defensive tandem deserves more time to show its capability
• Ron Artest has been a gamer, playing through the pain of an ankle sprain. He gives a damn and plays like it even when injured, and so should the Rockets. His heroic banging won the Rockets a double-overtime shootout against Utah.
• There are plenty of players on the roster who try every night, and trying is the first step.
• The Rockets have shown fans what they can do when they are focused, getting the ball to Yao deep in the post and defending like blood hounds. There is no reason why the Rockets cannot finish out the season doing all three of those things in every game.
• With perhaps the second best collection of talent in the conference, the Rockets have enough firepower to survive this cruel injury bug.
• Luis Scola is as smooth yet fiery as the Tango, and his blue collar hustle is a joy to watch. He can score 10-12 points in a quarter without having any plays run for him. Tonight, he managed a 16-point, 17-rebound night all on hustle in a no-defense allowed loss.
• Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry, if undersized at their position, are two of the best energy reserves in the league. Brooks speeds on both ends and Landry throws himself all over the floor.
• Yao can score 30 points and haul in 17 rebounds when the Rockets get him involved in the offense. The other players usually get better shots, too.
• Many of the players on this floundering team were part of last season's remarkable 22-game win streak. Who says this team cannot go on a similar, if less impressive run again?

What the Rockets need to win a championship:

• They must defend as if there are guns to their heads every night. No exceptions, no excuses. It does not matter who is out and who is playing. No defense means no chance.
• Ball movement and high percentage shots.
• If Tracy McGrady wants to compare his situation to Paul Pierce or Kevin Garnett, he damn well better start playing the way those guys did last year. He is a talker who has wussed out and quit on a team that needs his incredible abilities to contend.
• If McGrady is limited physically, he must learn to do what his body will allow to help the team. So, if he cannot jump as high or dunk as resoundingly, then he should drive to the basket and dish to open shooters. If he would use his length to defend, that would also be useful.
• The ScoLandry tandem needs to defend without fouling.
• Interior defense begins with Yao. If he lets guards and forwards abuse him in the paint, all his work on the offensive end becomes meaningless.
• Ron Artest still looks like a lost puppy in a slaughterhouse. The Rockets need him to be the old Ron Ron for the offense to work.
• They cannot play down to competition ever again. They should always play up to it.
• Injuries stink, but complaining about them does not make losing OK. Championship teams play hard regardless of who is in the lineup and never make excuses after cheap losses.

Prognosis:

I have run out of adjectives to describe the Rockets performance against worthless lottery squads. Why bother anyway if the Rockets don't bother showing up against teams they should smash by 30 points?

Simply put, this team has the talent and the coaching to win a championship but not the guts. No other championship hopeful in the last 20 years has as many duds on its resume as the Rockets. They sleepwalk one night and dominate the next. It is a pattern as maddening as it is unbelievable.

Never has the idea of a fan refund been more appropriate in professional sports than in the last three weeks in Houston. Everyone on this Rockets teams owes every fan who has ever bought a ticket to a game a thousand apologies for the thud against the woeful Wizards. It was a grievous flop that should alarm a general manager who has made all the right moves.

The Rockets are not rewarding Morey's crafty and superb deals with the kind of season that was expected when Artest arrived in August. It is the job of the players, not Adelman, Morey, or owner Leslie Alexander to right this sinking ship before it becomes the next Titanic.

If Yao and McGrady look ahead, they should see an iceberg, and if they have what it takes to be champions, they, not the role players will figure out how to avoid it.

A team goes as far as its star players/leaders take it, and at this rate, the role players might as well find and prepare the lifeboats.

Team grade:

C-