Daytona 500 Lineup 2012: Picks, Odds and Predictions
While NASCAR's Sprint Cup Series is just getting underway this weekend with the Daytona 500, it is never too early to look at how and where the oddsmakers will be proven wrong. Think of this as the good, bad, and ugly of the Daytona 500 and who you should and should not bet on under any circumstance.
Lineup:
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1. Carl Edwards
2. Greg Biffle
3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
4. Marcos Ambrose
5. Casey Mears
6. Jeff Gordon
7. Martin Truex Jr.
8. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
9. Trevor Bayne
10. Tony Stewart
11. Mark Martin
12. Jimmie Johnson
13. Aric Almirola
14. Paul Menard
15. David Ragan
16. Matt Kenseth
17. Ryan Newman
18. AJ Allmendinger
19. Brad Keselowski
20. Kevin Harvick
21. Joey Logano
22. Jeff Burton
23. Juan Pablo Montoya
24. Kasey Kahne
25. Tony Raines
26. David Stremme
27. Kyle Busch
28. Jamie McMurray
29. Danica Patrick
30. Kenny Wallace
31. Terry Labonte
32. Dave Blaney
33. Kurt Busch
34. Elliott Sadler
35. Michael Waltrip
36. Joe Nemechek
37. Denny Hamlin
38. Regan Smith
39. Michael McDowell
40. Landon Cassill
41. David Gilliland
42. Bobby Labonte
43. Bill Elliott
All odds listed here are courtesy of Bovada.
Favorite to Ignore: Dale Earnhardt Jr. (10/1)
It is hard to look past the fact that he hasn't won a single Sprint Cup Series race since 2008. That isn't to say it can't happen here, but the odds are terrible for such a poor recent record.
This comes down to playing the odds of him winning against the potential payout for you. The numbers aren't there for you.
Earnhardt is a popular driver and a past champion, but that doesn't mean a lot this week. He hasn't won anything in nearly four years, and even if he does break through at Daytona, the odds just won't give you a good payout.
Cheer for him all you want, but don't put your money on this guy.
Good Bet: Joey Logano (30/1)
Just last year, Logano showed that he could win at Daytona, notching a win at the Nationwide Series Subway Jalapeño 250. That shows that he's comfortable with the track, specifically the turns.
Starting from the middle of the pack isn't going to hurt Logano too much. Ideally you would want the best start possible, but over a 500-mile race, that shouldn't be overrated.
Logano has already accomplished a lot and is a rising star in the sport. If you want to combine odds with actual chance to win, you're not going to find a better bet than this youngster.
Long Shot to Look at: Aric Almirola (75/1)
His Ford did a strong job in qualifying, as he will start from the No. 13 spot. You'll want to keep an eye on him and his times throughout the week. At 75/1, you have very little to lose to potentially bring in a nice payoff.
Notable Odds:
| Trevor Bayne | 40/1 |
| Greg Biffle | 25/1 |
| Kurt Busch | 22/1 |
| Kyle Busch | 10/1 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 10/1 |
| Carl Edwards | 12/1 |
| Jeff Gordon | 12/1 |
| Kevin Harvick | 10/1 |
| Matt Kenseth | 22/1 |
| Jamie McMurray | 22/1 |
| Ryan Newman | 35/1 |
| Danica Patrick | 75/1 |
| Tony Stewart | 11/1 |
Full field odds available at Bovada.lv
Prediction: Carl Edwards
Starting from the pole helps, but it's not why he gets the nod here. The fact of the matter is that Edwards was remarkably consistent last year until falling just short.
I see a new focus in him this year. A win at Daytona will jump start a stellar 2012 season.
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